Jezebel
12-06-2003, 05:16 PM
If I calculate the Risk of Ruin (with formulas provided in the past by BruceZ) and figure that my 300BB bankroll has a .5% risk of ruin, then I can assume that there is only a .5% shot that my bankroll will go bust from normal fluctuations. However, lets say that I have a bad run only due to fluctuations not bad play and lose 150 bb. Now I figure my RoR lets say to be 15%. Assuming the game conditions have not changed and I'm still playing optimally, do I still have only a .5% shot of losing my whole roll?
Edit: I think I answered my own question with a little additional thought. Can I assume that with my winrate and SD I have only a .5% chance to lose 300bb, but a 15% chance to lose 150bb?
These aren't my numbers, I was just daydreaming and was wondering how the whole RoR works.
Edit: I think I answered my own question with a little additional thought. Can I assume that with my winrate and SD I have only a .5% chance to lose 300bb, but a 15% chance to lose 150bb?
These aren't my numbers, I was just daydreaming and was wondering how the whole RoR works.