Call or fold - $3/6 7CS

[Mac]

Playing online at $3/6, full table, $.50 ante, I'm completely new to the table when this very typical hand is dealt.

3rd street
--------------------------------
Player D XX T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif calls
Player S XX 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif (brings it in for $1)
Player T XX 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif folds
Player M XX A /images/graemlins/spade.gif folds
Player C XX Q /images/graemlins/club.gif folds
Player Z XX K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif calls
Player W XX 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif folds
MAC 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/spade.gif calls

4th street - four handed
---------------------------
Player D XX XX T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Player S XX XX 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Player Z XX XX K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif
MAC 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/spade.gif A /images/graemlins/heart.gif

MAC bets $3, Player D calls, Player S calls, Player Z folds

5th street - three handed
---------------------------
Player D XX XX T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/heart.gif (bets $6)
Player S XX XX 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif folds
MAC 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/spade.gif A /images/graemlins/heart.gif 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif folds


Like I said, very routine hand, but it's these typical hands that eat away at your bankroll if you make a -EV play. My gut said he 10's up with his play and
the fact that I'm holding one of his 10's. With no knowledge of opponent, my A overcard,
and $23 in pot, is this a +EV call? Will cost me $12 more with a fold on river if no improvement.


Thanks for any input or critique on play

- MAC -

[Andy B]

You played it just right. You have a very easy fold on fifth street.

[MRBAA]

In this spot, I'd probably not have bet on fourth. I often just check/fold fourth when I limp a small pair. Good fold after that.

[SevenStuda]

If you call, your drawing to 4 outs. -EV.

[patrick dicaprio]

i guess i am in the minority here but i would consider raising on fifth. why does your opponent have to have two pair? if he only has two tens you are in good shape to play on. plus you have an overcard, one of his tens and are getting 4-1 on a call. your hand is live, you are heads up and if you raise you might get a free card. if he only has two pair it will be tough for him to bet into you on sixth street, so there is a good chance you will get a free card. you dont give us any info on the player but if he is typical at that level you should consider playing on. i think folding is not necessarily routine. i wouldnt fold here.

Pat

[Andy B]

Part of the reason that a small pair with a big kicker is playable against a big pair smaller than your kicker is that you can sometimes win by hitting two small pair. I think it's fairly likely that we're up against two pair here, so we can only win by hitting Aces-up or trips. The pot isn't exactly huge, and we are definitely behind. The immediate pot odds may be 4:1 or whatever, but you're going to have to call a couple more bets to see this hand through. I may be myopic, but I just can't see raising in this spot. You cite the 4:1 odds, but raising cuts that in half.

[CJC]

Hi,

I like the bet on 4th actually..although in the smaller stakes it is unlikely we will get alot of hands that we want to fold...actually fold..

Anyways, to the original poster.. You played the hand fine.. although you would have prefered that your sidecard was live when calling 3rd.

Easy fold on 5th.

CJ

[CJC]

Hey Guys..long time..no hear..

Anywhoo..

Pat, I have to agree with Andy on this one.. I can't see raising here either.

CJ

[patrick dicaprio]

the reason to raise is that if you can get him to check on sixth then you havent lost anything since you would have to call two bets anyway. but it might allow you to get an extra bet or so if you do catch an ace. if you decide to play on raising might be better than calling. i see it as a weak play to fold here, and although i can see the logic i think it is a positive EV to play on if played correctly. maybe this is part of the reason my friends think i play too aggressively /images/graemlins/mad.gif

Pat

[Gitz]

Player D XX XX T 2 T (bets $6)
Player S XX XX 3 J 9 folds
MAC 6 6 T A 7 folds

Mac this was an unfortunate card for you (had it been a blank you would of won the hand right there in my opinion betting out most of the time) and the sooner you are able to recognize such cards without improving and heading into the ($6) rounds in a low limit game the better off you will be to fold most of the time. You didn't improve enuf in my opinion to go on with this hand.

Paul

[Andy B]

You've seen fifteen cards. If you assume that an Ace or a Six will win for you, you have five good cards out of 37 unseen cards. It is more than 6:1 against making your hand on the next card, and the pot is offering 4:1. Each succeeding bet will shorten your odds further still. My math may be off some, but I make it as about a 36% chance that you will make Aces-up or better by the river. I am ignoring the chance that you can catch running Sevens. This a little less than 2:1, and if you call bets on fifth and sixth, you'll be getting about 2:1. Of course, you won't win every time you hit, and you can't raise except in the rare case where you make a full house.

The problem is that it is still entirely possible that the other guy started with a pair of Tens. It's probably more likely that he has a pocket pair, but trips are not so overwhelmingly unlikely as you think. Pocket Nines is probably in his realm of possible hands. There are six ways he can have pocket Nines, and thirty-something ways he can have split Tens. You can probably eliminate a lot of other hands if you know the way he plays. With a big pocket pair, he probably raises on third street. With pocket Treys or Eights, he probably folds on third street, because his hand is dead. I don't know about you, but when I'm last to act, I'll limp in with a split pair of Tens with one out and just see what happens about every time. There is a very real threat that he has trips on fifth street, and for this reason, you just have to fold. Raising is insane.

[Andy B]

I like the bet on fourth. There's a pretty good chance that your opponents don't have much, and even if you don't buy the pot on fourth, you may set yourself up to buy it on fifth. I would bet in this spot just about every time.