I called 3 cold!?!?!?

[rkiray]

Actually it seemed like an easy call at the time, but I generally thought calling 3 cold is almost always wrong. It was kind of an interesting hand anyway so I decided to post it.

Paradise 2/4 Slightly loose, 38% seeing flop, but very aggresive. The most common mistakes at this table are that many people are calling 2 cold with hands they shouldn't and there is also a lot of preflop raising with hands I don't think merit it (KJo ep, A7s any position, etc.).

I'm MP1 with 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif
UTG+1 limps, I limp, MP2 raises, MP3, co, and button call 2 cold, both blinds fold, limpers call.

Flop : J /images/graemlins/club.gif 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/spade.gif

check, I check intending to raise, bet, raise, reraise, button calls, fold, I call three cold, pf raiser now folds (he was first bettor on flop), call. There was $44 in the pot when it was $6 to me so the cold call seemed easy. The pot is now so big I know I'm going to go to the river so I could probably value raise here, but thought it was better to hide my hand.

Turn : 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif

I check, check, bet, call, I raise, fold, call, call.

River : J /images/graemlins/heart.gif

I bet. Call. Fold. This was basically a pure bluff hoping that my check raise on the turn might scare everyone out.






Opponent had J /images/graemlins/spade.gif 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif so I lost to trips.

[BigEndian]

I think this is a bad call. You have an ignorant straight draw, when a flush draw is on the board with everyone and their sister in the hand.

This is a fold in my book. Probably a fold to one bet if I'm not closing the action depending on the number of people in play.

- Groove

[rkiray]

I'm getting better than 7:1 when I'm 2:1 to make my straight by the river. I think I have more than enough overlay to call.

[Brian]

Hi rkiray,

I think most of the "no-no"'s involving cold-calling occur pre-Flop instead of post-Flop. I've been in many situations on the Flop where I felt calling 2 or 3 bets cold was my best option. I think that you played the hand fine. On the Flop, you are getting 7.5:1 to chase a 6 outer (and maybe 8 outs if the Flush isn't there), which is more than enough.
The check-raise on the Turn is for value, although I don't see the bluff on the River working often enough to make it profitable. The pot is so big that there will definitely be a showdown.

-Brian

[Brian]

Hi BigEndian,

The odds are 7:1 that he will make a straight on the Turn that won't complete a Flush. The pot is laying him 7.5:1 to call. This means it is a definite call. Implied odds when you do hit will make up for the times that you hit and are counterfeited on the River. Backdoor Flush potential adds to this hand as well.

If the Turn brings a bad card, like the board pairs and there is significant action, or another Spade, then you can check-and-fold, confident that you played your hand well up until then. You aren't calling the Flop hoping to hit on either the Turn or River. You are calling on the Flop getting the odds to hit on just the Turn. If the Turn isn't a scary card, then you can look at the River as well.

-Brian

[J.R.]

Don't you think that 2 of your straight outs will put you in a reverse (negative) implied odds situation, and even when you turn a non-flush straight card you are still subject to flush and perhaps nut straight redraws. 2-1 is generous given 2 of your outs are tainted and is a non-nut draw.

BTW, 7-1 is the immediate pot odds you face but the effective odds of getting to the river will likely be much worse than this, so it isn't comparing apples to apples to say you are getting 7-1 on a 2-1 to hit by the river shot.

[rkiray]

My thought that the pot was so big the bluff doesn't need to be sucessful very often at all to be profitable.

[Lost Wages]

Slightly loose, 38% seeing flop, but very aggresive

This is not a game that you should be limping in EMP with 98s after just one limper. You want a loose passive game to limp in with a suited connector this early.

On the flop I would fold. It could eaisly be capped behind you. If you miss on the turn you are likely to have to call multile bets to see the river. Look at your outs. Your 4 queen outs make a straight for AK or at least give a redraw to anyone holding an A or K. The 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif could make someone a flush while you make a straight. Even if you catch a clean 7 on the turn any spade, A, K, Q, J, T, 7 or 5 on the river would be an unwelcome sight.

Lost Wages

[Brian]

Hi rkiray,

The bluff will, imo, never be successful /images/graemlins/smile.gif The larger the pot gets, the harder it is to bluff, because of the odds you are laying on your opponent. While it is true that the bluff has to work LESS often to be successful, it works against the bluffer the larger the pot gets.

-Brian

[rkiray]

I thought there was a good chance there would be more money in the pot from the players left to act behind me. There were 3 possible small bets left to call. Of course one of them could have raised, but there were enough people still in that another raise would really be a value bet (i.e if 4 people call I'm ok since I'm less than a 4-1 dog).

[Aces McGee]

[ QUOTE ]
You have an ignorant straight draw

[/ QUOTE ]

rkiray is holding two of the cards in the 4-card straight, making the fact that it's the ignorant end much less significant.

[ QUOTE ]
Probably a fold to one bet if I'm not closing the action depending on the number of people in play.


[/ QUOTE ]

Folding an OESD like this one for one bet with no reason to think it'll be raised behind you (preflop raiser made the bet) would be a significant mistake.

McGee

[rkiray]

[ QUOTE ]
This is not a game that you should be limping in EMP with 98s after just one limper. You want a loose passive game to limp in with a suited connector this early.



[/ QUOTE ]

This is a good point and I'm glad you brought it up. 89s is generally as low as I go before multiple callers in a normal game. In an aggressive game I normally muck them also. I thought about that this time and decided that so many people were call 2 cold with trash in this game (J8sp for example in this hand) I would probably get enough callers even if it was raised behind me. I'd like to hear other people's opinion on this though.

[Jezebel]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm getting better than 7:1 when I'm 2:1 to make my straight by the river. I think I have more than enough overlay to call.



[/ QUOTE ]

If you are planning on going to the river by using 2:1 odds, then the pot is not laying you 7:1. You must figure in your costs on the turn, which will cut your odds considerably. However, that being said your call is not horrible, merely questionable

This also would not be a flop that I would consider raising for value on. You have the ignorant end of the straight and are against a possible flush draw, so you could be drawing dead, or to 6 outs.

Why raise on the turn? You are the one who needs a cheap card. I doubt you are going to get two people with money already committed to lay their hand down. It is not a value raise and your hand is going to need to improve to have any shot of winning on the river, so a free river showdown is not necessary.

[Lost Wages]

but there were enough people still in that another raise would really be a value bet

This concept is only true when you are hitting to the likely best hand. 5 of your 8 outs are not to the nuts. Plus, all of your outs are vulnerable to redraws. There has been a bet, a raise and a reraise. Three players like their hand. A flush draw, better straight draw and set are getting much more value from the raises than you are.

Lost Wages

[rkiray]

On the turn I now have a flush draw to go with my oesd. I very often would check raise with either draw on the turn. I think this adds deception since I will also check raise with big made hands. I like to check raise frequently in aggresive games. If you don't check raise often the aggresive players will simply run you over when they have position. If they notice you check raise alot, they usually slow down a bit.

[Brian]

Hi rkiray,

Looking at this as 7:1 on a 2:1 shot is completely flawed logic for 3 or 4 different reasons. I will explain them if you want.

-Brian

[rkiray]

I don't know. I still have 4 opponents in this hand, and these guys have all been consistently calling raises too much. There can be at most one more raise behind me this round. If everyone stays, that would mean even then I'd being getting 4-1 when I'm only a 5-1 dog to make my straight on the next card. So even if I don't look at the last bet I'm getting around 7-1 as a 5-1 dog. Also the pot will now be so big that I think it would have to be at least 3 cold to me again before I'd even think about folding on the turn unless a really bad card hit (say the 9 spade). So I think I'm basically a 2-1 dog and as long as 3 or more opponents keep calling I'm making money on each raise.

[Brian]

Hi rkiray,

First, you need to stop thinking of yourself as a 2:1 dog by the River. That's if you have a Flush. I think a Straight draw is 2.5:1 to make it by the River. It didn't make sense to me either when I saw it, since it's only 1 less out, but I'm no mathematician.

Second, I agree 100% that you are a 5-1 dog to make your Straight on the Turn. However, two of your Straight cards, the Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif and the 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif are not clean outs. In fact, with the action on the Flop, I would go so far as to say that they are NOT outs at all. Therefore, with only 6 clean outs instead of 8 clean outs, you are a 7:1 dog to make your Straight on the Turn. (However, getting 7.5:1 on your call, as I said in my other posts, I would call).

Third, as Jezebel pointed out, you are not really getting 7:1 on a "2.5:1" shot. You aren't counting the bets that you will have to put in on the Turn. If you calculate your immediate pot odds on the Flop for something that you are hoping to make on the Turn OR River, then you have to count the potential bets that you will have to call on the Turn. I forget what Sklansky calls this in TOP. Immediate odds maybe? Anyways, if you always calculate your odds this way, then you are calculating incorrectly.

On the Turn, if the board pairs or a Spade comes and there is substantial action (which, looking at the Flop action, there probably will be), then you must fold your hand. You're done. No River. So you can't say you are a 2:1 dog because theres a decent chance you might not even see the River.

You are most certainly not making money on each raise. YOU ARE NOT A 2:1 DOG!!! Get that out of your mind, please, and you will be able to see what the rest of us are talking about. /images/graemlins/smile.gif I agree with your Flop call 100%, but I think we have different reasoning behind it.

1 more time, here is my reasoning:

You are getting 7.5:1 on a 7:1 shot on the Turn (assuming the pre-Flop raiser who bet the Flop doesn't call). While you may be counterfeited on the River, the implied odds you are getting when you hit your Straight will more than make up for it. That's all you can look at for the time being. On the Turn, if a non-Spade, non-Ace hits, you can probably continue with your hand, and will be getting the odds to do so. (This is assuming the board doesn't pair. If it pairs and there is substantial action, you must get out).

-Brian

[rkiray]

I am a math guy (or I used to be). oesd and four flushes are both approximately 2-1 dog to make their hands by the river. It's easy to see this. You admit that oesd is about a 5-1 dog to make it in one card. This means I will win about 1 time in 6 with one card to come. You can basically cut this in half with two cards to come (not exact but close). So I will win about one time in three, or 2-1 odds.

The term you are looking for is effective odds.

BTW, I like you post, and overall think this is the best thread I've started in quite some time.

[J.R.]

So I will win about one time in three, or 2-1 odds.

Wrong. You will hit your non-nut draw about 1 in 3 times.

[Munga30]

I tend to treat 98s as an implied odds hand, rather than a fair share hand, so I try to play it on the cheap. 3.8 players for 2 bets each does not sound like a good enough average result for me.

[rkiray]

Sorry, I stand corrected

[rkiray]

Not every hand was being raised preflop. Though it was probably a little more than half. It was only one bet to me and I was in middle position. So now I figure the odds of a raise have gone down substantially. Many, if not most of the really marginal rasies were open raises, so with two callers in, I thought there was a good chance I could see the flop for a single bet.

[J.R.]

That's the point of what many are trying to convey to you.
While you are 2-1 to hit your draw, you need to adjust your apprasial of how often you will win the hand when you make your straight because of the possibility that a flush, bigger straight or full house could still beat you.

good luck tonight

[GuyOnTilt]

I'm surprised that nobody's pointed out your biggest mistake in this hand.

Preflop: Bad limp. As others have said, you don't want to limp from MP with 98s after only 1 limper in a game that you describe as aggressive.

Flop: The call is fine, since you're getting better than 7:1 on your call.

Turn: Check. Good. Raise. VERY, VERY, VERY BAD!!!

You're getting 2:1 on your raise. Best scenario, you have 15 outs. Worse case scenario, you have 11 outs. So you should calculate somewhere in between these two. But let's just say that neither opponent has a set 100% of the time here, AND neither is on a flush draw 100% of the time here, giving you your full 15 outs. That means that there's 31 blanks and 15 outs, so your raise is a little -EV. If you add in the fact that you're driving out a potential overcaller, and risking a 3-bet, then it's definitely -EV. But again, that's best case scenario. In reality, you'll probably have around 13 outs on average in this spot. Either one of your opponents will have a set, or one will have a spade draw. So with 13 outs, you're 33:13, or 2.5:1 dog to hit your draw, making your check-raise CLEARLY incorrect, even if you completely ignore the fact that you're giving your opponent the opportunity to 3-bet and driving out the overcaller, both of which are very good possibilities.

I don't like your preflop play, but I absolutely HATE your turn play. Your river bluff is pretty hopeless as well. When you check-raise the turn for value and you miss, you should usually not continue your aggression with a bluff on the river, unless you have a good read on your opponents' hands.

BTW, what did you put your opponent's on?

GoT

[chainSmoker]

yes, a semi-bluff turn raise sure adds deception. But how many people are you trying to deceive here? Half the table? What chance do you think there is that the entire table will fold to your turn raise? With a pot this big, and this many players showing strength on the flop, I'd say the chance of you taking the pot right there is 0%. So, 1 of your (possibly) 3 ways of winning with the semi-bluff raise has been taken away from you. In this kind of situation, a river bet when you miss your draw will probably not make everyone fold. So bascially the only way you have to win with your semi-bluff is if you improve the best hand and show it down. I'd suggest just check-calling the turn here and check-folding if you miss. With smaller pots and fewer opponents, the semi-bluff is a profitable play, but I think this situation calls for straight-forward play.

- ak

[rharless]

I very much agree with Lost Wages et al who say to muck this preflop.

98s wants a loose passive game. The fact that you can expect a raise behind you means muck it. You are paying 1BB to play the hand! I used to always think "well I have five opponents, that's good enough" -- throwing caution to the win on my preflop investment. But after you really study the situation, and the implied odds needed, then the importance of playing it cheaply is really driven home.

Compare to say, a small pair. That will flop a set just about as often as you will flop just a draw with 98s. But with a small pair, if you flop good, you're usually favored to win the hand. With 98s, if you flop "good", that just means you can continue paying more money in hopes of hitting your draw. With 98s, you will continue putting in money with a hand that will still lose frequently.

[rkiray]

Yeah, I do think my biggest mistake was not folding preflop. I did think about it, but as I mentioned in previous posts I thought most of the time I'd only play for one bet and even if it was raised behind me people would call anyway. I really underestimated how much it can cost you if you just hit a big draw. This hand is probably a perfect example of why not to play suited connectors in an aggressive game. A small pair would have been much better here.

[rkiray]

I probably should not have check raised the turn based on the flop action. I think I just fell into a habit here. In aggressive games when there are 2 or more players left to act behind me I almost always check raise either the flop or the turn with oesds or four flushes. Since I couldn't cr the flop I went ahead and cred the turn. In aggressive games I don't think it's as bad as you make it sound though. Even if the bet is -EV I think the deception for when I cr with made big hands has some value. Also in aggressive games I want the other players to know I cr alot. This slow them down and sometimes buys free cards. This also has future value. But I must admit that given the flop action, this was a time to check and call. I think it was picking up the flush draw to go with the oesd that pushed me over the edge.