How many professional poker players are there?

[Wynton]

Does anyone have the slightest idea or guess how many "professional poker players" there are in the US, or other countries? By "professional," I'm referring to people who rely solely, or at least primarily, on their income from poker to meet their basic living expenses.

Just wondering.

Oh, and while we're at it, how many of these "pros" do well enough to live in the lap of luxury?

(If this post belongs in another category, please feel free to tell me where.)

[Warren Whitmore]

By Professional I will take Mason's definition of being able to make >$30 dollars per hour 40 hours per week.
assumptions:
1) The win rates as stated in the book "Gambling for a living" by David Sklansky & Mason Malmuth for selective world class players represent the third standard deviation (positive) for poker players.
2) The mean for poker players is negative $10/hour. ($100 per table divided by 10 people for average rake).
3) The number of poker players in the United states is evenly distributed by # of hours played by each person per unit time, quantity of people playing and by quality of play.
4) poker players can be represented by a normal bell curve.
5) Tournement players not included.

Let start with 10:20 (the lowest limit where one could hope to win > $30/hour consistently. Our 3rd standard deviation player makes $40/hour.
Delta -10 to 40 = $50=3 sigma one sigma = $16.67
therefor $30/hour = about + 2.4 sigma or the 98th centile multiplied by the 10,000 people playing 10:20 = 200 people making $30/hr or more.

15:30;Our 3rd standard deviation player makes $55/hour.
one sigma = $21.67 $30 = 1.8 sigma = 96th centile
(.04)(10 000)=400.

20:40;Our 3rd standard deviation player makes $65/hour.
one sigma = $25/hr $30 = 1.6 sigma = 94th centile
(.06)(6 000) = 360.

30:60;Our 3rd standard deviation player makes $85/hour.
one sigma = $31.67 $30 = 1.3 sigma = 91st centile
(.09)(4000) = 360.

50:100 to 300:600;Our 3rd standard deviation player makes $100/hr. One sigma = $37 $30 = 1 sigma = 84th centile
(0.16)(4000) = 640.

Rough guess about 2 000.

[J.R.]

There'a a lot more than that, think internet. There may be more than your number in California and Nevada B&M's alone.

I think you need to draw on a much larger player base given this country has 250 million people or so, but I have no hard facts to base this on, just a general hunch, so maybe I'm out of place.

[Warren Whitmore]

You are right. I did not include on line poker.

[phish]

I vaguely remember Sklansky writing in the CardPlayer a year or so ago that he thought there were perhaps 500 people in the US who make 50K or more a year, and about 200 who make over 100K. (Now this would be their expected annual income from poker, so we're not talking about tournament players who may get luck one year and make 2 million but have losing years the next three.)

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
I vaguely remember Sklansky writing in the CardPlayer a year or so ago that he thought there were perhaps 500 people in the US who make 50K or more a year, and about 200 who make over 100K. (Now this would be their expected annual income from poker, so we're not talking about tournament players who may get luck one year and make 2 million but have losing years the next three.)

[/ QUOTE ]

I would be stunned if there were not more than 200 players making 100k at poker every year. More than stunned. I think this number is exteremely low.

[rentmoney]

Your calculations assumes that poker players are a bell curve meaning half of all players make money and the other half lose money. Isn't it said that only the top 10% or so of players actually win? This would case the curve to be skewed towards the side of the losers and create a lot less winners at the high end. Wouldn't it?

[Warren Whitmore]

1) "Your calculations assumes that poker players can be represented by a bell curve meaning half of the players make $ and the other half lose dollars." Not at all. The average is negative $10 because of the rake. Because the center of the bell curve is where the majority of players are by definition the majority of players must lose money.

2)"Isen't it said that only the top 10% or so of players actually win?" If you include earning 5 cents per hour winning that could be right. If you are talking about $30 per hour it couldent be anywhere near that high. It couldent be more than 2.5% as the overwelling majority of players are of the 1:3 to 5:10 type and none of them are comming anywhere near $30/hour.

3) "This would cause the curve to be skewed towards the side of the losers and create a lot less winners at the high end wouldent it?" No it wouldent. Because if you took all of the casino poker players in the country and made a bell curve of the collectivly the average at negative $10/hour would plus or minus two standard deviations of about $40 per hour would encompass 95% of the players. That would leave you with 2.5% of the players making over $30 per hour and 2.5% of the players losing over $40/hour. That seems about right to me.

[phish]

First of all, to make $30/hour, you'd have to be playing at least 10/20. And I suspect that the percentage of players playing 10/20 or higher is only about 10%. And of these, winners who can make at least 30/hr can't be more than 10%. So I'd say that at best only 1% of poker players make 30/hr or more.

[SevenStuda]

Seven, there are only seven.

[Wake up CALL]

[ QUOTE ]
Seven, there are only seven.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you sure? After all Stu Unger died.

[clovenhoof]

Yup, he's right. There WERE eight. Now there's seven.

Seriously, it's gotta be something like 10,000, at any one time. Another interesting question is, whatever the number is that satisfy the definition given -- making their nut through poker earnings -- what percentage will have fallen out of that class in a year? Two years? Three?

Aside from the normal reasons -- players get drug habits that affect their play (and their expenses), players stop playing as well, players making the money right now are enjoying a lucky streak that comes to an end -- game quality has an ebb and a flow... it just gets tougher to make a living as action dries up and live ones learn how to play.

Thoughts? Comments?

'hoof

[Ryan_21]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Seven, there are only seven.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you sure? After all Stu Unger died.


[/ QUOTE ]

No, Stu Ungar lives in a 38 bedroom condo in Jamaica with Tupac, Bob Marley and Elvis. I've been there.

Ryan_21

[Nottom]

I think you are Stu Ungar.
Thats why you find it so important to defend him.

[Ryan_21]

Shyt, I knew you guys were smart, but man, ya'll catch on quick.

Ryan_21

[Al Mirpuri]

I've seen a figure of 15,000 professional pokers for the US mentioned in print. And that was a few years ago.