Shaun
12-04-2003, 07:36 AM
Here is a hand that I took some flack for, but considering the situation I thought I made the right play, though it was close. I am the big blind with 10h,9h. MP makes it 6 to go, and gets 2 more callers. 4 of us see the flop, including myself and the small blind. Raiser has 175, I have about 250, and SB has about 200. Flop comes down Kh 2h 9s. SB bets 20 into the 24$ pot.
I think about raising here, but want to see how the pre-flop raiser reacts to a call by me and the SB's bet. I call, raiser makes it 60. 4th player folds.
Now the small blind pushes all-in. I play with the SB all the time and I respect his play, however, I am almost certain of his hand here. He likely has AK and correctly puts me on a flush draw, which normally I would of course let go. But I figure I have 5 more outs against his hand , so I push in as well. The pre-flop raiser thinks for a while (I don't think he expected this!) and then mucks.
My thought process here is that it is likely I am up against two identical hands- AK. If either player has a set, it is more likely to be the small blind, but I don't think he would bet the set straight out into only 3 players with a king on board and risk not getting it paid off, as the raiser could easily lay down queens or worse with this play. No, he would checkraise a set here to allow the raiser an oppurtunity to bet with worse than a king. This is why I am almost certain he has AK. Now the preflop raiser COULD have KK I suppose, but as I am pretty sure there are only 2 kings left, I find that unlikely. I am pretty sure that he has either AA, or AK as well. Sure, he could also have 99 or 22 in theory, but why raise 22 to 6? He is not that kind of player. So it has to be 99 or KK for him to have a set, hands that are less likely given my holding and my read of the small blind's holding.
Thus I figure that my outs warrant an all-in here and I hope for a call from the pre-flop raiser. The way I see it, I am coin flip with AK, but there is also the added chance of the pre-flop raiser calling with a hand that is somewhat dead to improvement, as I figure these two players have similar holdings. This would give me a favorite with a chance to almost triple my stack. Worst case scenario, I am heads up with 60$ extra in the pot and a roughly 50-50 chance of winning the hand. This seems like a profitable play IF I am certain of SB's holding and only he and I stay, and much more profitable if PF raiser calls with his likely AK or AA.
Well unfortunately the PF raiser folded, later claiming he had AA, but the good news is the turn, a jack, gave me more outs, and the river made my flush. I won the pot and then heard it from the table- but I'd do it again in the exact same situation. The small blind indeed had AK (with no heart).
What would others do in this situation? Is it wrong to trust your read so much and then take a 50-50 gamble like this?
I think about raising here, but want to see how the pre-flop raiser reacts to a call by me and the SB's bet. I call, raiser makes it 60. 4th player folds.
Now the small blind pushes all-in. I play with the SB all the time and I respect his play, however, I am almost certain of his hand here. He likely has AK and correctly puts me on a flush draw, which normally I would of course let go. But I figure I have 5 more outs against his hand , so I push in as well. The pre-flop raiser thinks for a while (I don't think he expected this!) and then mucks.
My thought process here is that it is likely I am up against two identical hands- AK. If either player has a set, it is more likely to be the small blind, but I don't think he would bet the set straight out into only 3 players with a king on board and risk not getting it paid off, as the raiser could easily lay down queens or worse with this play. No, he would checkraise a set here to allow the raiser an oppurtunity to bet with worse than a king. This is why I am almost certain he has AK. Now the preflop raiser COULD have KK I suppose, but as I am pretty sure there are only 2 kings left, I find that unlikely. I am pretty sure that he has either AA, or AK as well. Sure, he could also have 99 or 22 in theory, but why raise 22 to 6? He is not that kind of player. So it has to be 99 or KK for him to have a set, hands that are less likely given my holding and my read of the small blind's holding.
Thus I figure that my outs warrant an all-in here and I hope for a call from the pre-flop raiser. The way I see it, I am coin flip with AK, but there is also the added chance of the pre-flop raiser calling with a hand that is somewhat dead to improvement, as I figure these two players have similar holdings. This would give me a favorite with a chance to almost triple my stack. Worst case scenario, I am heads up with 60$ extra in the pot and a roughly 50-50 chance of winning the hand. This seems like a profitable play IF I am certain of SB's holding and only he and I stay, and much more profitable if PF raiser calls with his likely AK or AA.
Well unfortunately the PF raiser folded, later claiming he had AA, but the good news is the turn, a jack, gave me more outs, and the river made my flush. I won the pot and then heard it from the table- but I'd do it again in the exact same situation. The small blind indeed had AK (with no heart).
What would others do in this situation? Is it wrong to trust your read so much and then take a 50-50 gamble like this?