rethinking small pairs.

[mike l.]

mason writes very eloquently about small pairs (and small sets) and this prompted me to write something here.

i have a leak i think. i play in a 20-40 where it's about 90% raised preflop, oftentimes with very questionable hands.
as a result no one ever believes anyone has anything good so the flops are usually seen by 4-7 people for two bets, sometimes 3 bets, each. the action is fairly aggressive postflop. i find myself in this scenario a lot: someone raises preflop w/ something like QTo, a couple other jackasses come in, then i have 66 and i come in too. seven of us see the flop. 14 small bets. the flop is Q83 or something. preflop raiser bets and a couple callers to me and now im getting 17 to 1 to call and see the turn (and maybe two of the three players to follow never checkraise). so i end up calling. now ive pissed away $60 chasing a 2 outer. should i just dump it preflop? on the flop despite great implied odds?

it gets worse. sometimes 7 people see the flop for 3 bets each or a cap and then i get trapped for two bets on the flop chasing and then i feel obliged to call the turn when there's like 18-20 big bets in there. help!

[elindauer]

Have you considered folding this hand preflop? You seem to be playing it to hit a set, but I doubt you are taking out enough when you hit to justify this strategy.

I would guess that this hand is just adding volatility to your results at best, in this game.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
someone raises preflop w/ something like QTo, a couple other jackasses come in, then i have 66 and i come in too.
...
should i just dump it preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. Unless you're in cutoff or on the button and lots of other jackasses have come in.

[Rick Nebiolo]

Mike,

If the pre flop action typically goes two bets or more 90% of the time, three bets or more 40% of the time, and four bets 25% of the time you need to make some major adjustments.

First, ditch small pairs up front. In the best case (only one raise and multiple opponents) you will have a small overlay. But when it goes to three or four bets with two or three opponents you are a big dog in the way the hand will play out over time.

Second, play it in back even against raises if you have the multiway action. The more raises the more opponents and greater estimated post flop action you need. I think Mason's ten to one guideline is pretty good. If you can't estimate a ten to one return on your pre flop investment when you hit a set, ditch it. OTOH, even against raises the small pair can make a fortune if you have the pre flop aggressor leading thought the field into your sets. Obviously this is high variance so be carefull.

Third, don't chase when you miss a flop set without getting a little more than 17 to 1 and a board that is relatively safe if you spike. Of course you must close the action or be pretty sure you won't be raised behind.

Me, I have trouble ditching small pairs in raised multiway pots. But I need to know it is multiway and this means play in front in soft games only and in back or middle after you know or can estimate the action.

Regards,

Rick

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah. Unless you're in cutoff or on the button and lots of other jackasses have come in.


[/ QUOTE ]
i would generally call and expect SB & BB to come in most of the time. if some jackass reraises behind you and drives out the blind(s), you still have around 5 way action. I personally found that you usually get paid more than 10:1 for your set in a 5 way raised or reraised pot.

Kenny

[mike l.]

in other words im playing it just like rick is. well fuuck it, im folding from now on anyways. ill wait for better situations, flopping and turning sets is too much of a longshot for my short bankroll, even when getting correct odds.

[mike l.]

"I doubt you are taking out enough when you hit to justify this strategy."

youre wrong but im going to stop playing them anyways. 7.5 to 1 shots are not my speed anymore. id rather save the money for dark bets w/ bottom pair into fearless opponents.

[mike l.]

"if some jackass reraises behind you"

he might.

"and drives out the blind(s),"

that wont happen. after all they have 2 and 4 chips in. theyre severely pot stuck.

[David Steele]

now ive pissed away $60 chasing a 2 outer

But occasionally you hit and it all works out.

That said, perhaps you go too far and overestimate the implied odds then it becomes nothing but extra variance or even a small leak.

D.

[nykenny]

sounds like a terrific game. can't lose. where is it? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[skp]

I disagree with folding in the stated scenario i.e. one early raise, 2 other guys call. I think that calling with 66 in that spot is perfectly fine (heck, no one has taken me to task for calling with 22 in the Huey v. Andy Fox lawsuit thread below...well, probably because no one has read it but that's another matter).

Anyway, I call with 66 in this spot; if pots are constantly getting capped, well then you might want to rethink things.

Overall, I get the feeling that Mike is probably playing it right except that he may be calling a little too much on the flop even when he misses. Sure, 17:1 looks good but if the bet on the flop is coming from close to your right, you probably have to fold because of the propensity of someone to your left raising it (in the types of games that Mike describes).

Perhaps, Mike has had a bit of a dry spell with hitting sets that has him rethinking his play. Just a thought.

[andyfox]

If you continually take long odds, even when you're getting the best of it, you end up with a short bankroll, even if you started out with a long one. A guy who only plays a million to one longshot when he's getting a million and a half to one still ends up losing his bet.

I can't imagine anyone of us wouldn't be better off never cold-calling a raise. Get in cheap in back or don't get in at all seems wise.

[mike l.]

"sounds like a terrific game."

it is.

"can't lose."

let's not get carried away.

"where is it?"

oceans 11, oceanside, ca. come on down.

[mike l.]

"Get in cheap in back or don't get in at all seems wise."

that's my new motto andy. please note that this is different than what mason recommends.

[mike l.]

"I think that calling with 66 in that spot is perfectly fine"

"fine" it certainly is. but it's no longer the correct play for me.

[Rick Nebiolo]

Mike,

My answer above assumed a comfortable bankroll. In Los Angeles with a short bankroll you can drop down to 15/30, which plays a lot smaller than 20/40 (unlike Las Vegas) for reasons discussed in previous threads. In Oceanside dropping down to 8/16 is too big a drop so you can make adjustments to make your 20/40 game play "smaller". Here are a few with small pairs:

1. Fold in early position first in even if the game seems soft.

2. Fold middle position first in - you end up playing for two or three bets against two or three opponents far too often.

3. Fold in back if it looks like it is going to be played for three bets no matter how many opponents you have (since once it goes to three bets multi-way it usually gets capped).

4. Only play for two bets if you are relatively certain you will get at least five opponents.

5. You need four opponents for one bet in back (unless making an isolation raise against a lone weak opponent).

6. If you do get trapped for three bets look for 20 to 1 and an almost perfect spot to take one off on your misses.

7. Recognize that a raise followed by cold calls is less likely to be capped than a bunch of limps followed by a raise and reraise and make adjustments.

All of these things give up a very little in equity (if any) and reduce variance. Go much farther and you start giving up a lot of equity.

~ Rick

PS If you consistantly (as opposed to selectively) attack three opponents with J2 on a flop of 9-3-2 as in that nearby thread also expect to have a lot of variance.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
(heck, no one has taken me to task for calling with 22 in the Huey v. Andy Fox lawsuit thread below...well, probably because no one has read it but that's another matter).

[/ QUOTE ]

I read it and thought it was fine.

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, I call with 66 in this spot; if pots are constantly getting capped, well then you might want to rethink things.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's it. I inferred that if there are more than the blinds yet to act (say, CO, button, and blinds) then there would be a reasonable enough chance of someone raising behind mike. And when that happens in these games, someone often caps for fun. I'd rather stay away and just wait until I have this situation on the button or maybe cutoff.

[mike l.]

"PS If you consistantly (as opposed to selectively) attack three opponents with J2 on a flop of 9-3-2 as in that nearby thread also expect to have a lot of variance."

yeah i know. andy pointed it out too. i consistently check-fold this, i just felt my hand was too strong given the players i was against in this case.

[CrackerZack]

Now that is some funny sh*t.

I'd probably fold PF against only 3 opponents as long as their jackass holdings will almost always be 2 overcards to my pair. I know you're playing for set value but you're short a nice chuck PF and would like a little extra fun.

Edit: forgot about the blinds, i'm more likely to call although I hate calling 2 cold then check-folding so I want to be damn sure I'm getting around 5+ - 1 on this call.

[Lawrence Ng]

I often watch who will raise and who will cold call the raises before I play the smaller pairs in such a situation. If it's a bad, loose aggressive player who always raises, then I will play any pair below 10s in mid to late position with 4 to 7 callers. However, if a good player that raises or reraises I will fold even in late position knowing possibly well that I may well be up against a bigger pair and I won't like it if I see a A, K or Q on the flop even if I spike my set.

Small, mid pairs are great to play in these games provided you can hit your sets, but just be careful and watch who is raising and reraising.

[elysium]

hi mike
you present another good reason for not playing 66 before the LMP after a few have called. from LMP, you should have a good idea about whether you will be raised from behind on the flop after calling the raised pre-flop. often you are getting more than enough implied odds to make the flop call, if you know that you won't be raised by the remaining players behind you; something very difficult to decipher from positions earlier than LMP. so refraining from playing 66 in the early positions and instead opting to enter in with it only from the late positions, gives you an extra barrel to fire with if you miss the flop.

that's not popular advice though. 90% of 2+2 ers will enter in with it from any position if they believe that they will see the flop 5 handed or better. while it looks ok to do that, particularly if the action is passive, with many entering in, the problem is that if you hit your set you might frighten them off by betting or allow a free card that destroys you by instead checking. you also must usually fold if you miss because no one can read more than 3 opponents that well and of course you would likely face an odds crippling raise. what position are you in here......the button minus 2 or 3.......hmmmmmm. yea, the aggression is a double-edged sword here.

if you know that you're not going to get raised, call. but if you think that a raise is coming, fold. refrain from even considering calling if more than two act behind you. refrain from calling if you don't have a solid read on 1 or 2 opponents behind you. if completeing your course if your call closes the action, if the pre-flop was raised you should call every time even if a flush draw is on if your holding one of suit. and if your not holding one of suit, then call only if your call closes the action.

remember also that you can win unimproved sometimes by check-raising the turn if you suspect that your opponent is on a draw. you can also win unimproved by check-calling. you do need to know when you have an unimproved 66 winner though, and when you don't.

eh the stupid backspace thing messed up but basically if your completing a set puts a four to a straight on board, or completes a straight for someone, then fold. the flush is a little different though, especially if you hold one of suit. you should usually always call in that case, and when you don't hold one of suit, only call when your call closes the action. saying that though is a little redundant because technically your call always closes the action when you have a solid read on the remaing 1 or 2 opponents left to act behind you.