Do the pot odds justify this call?

[DougBrennan]

I didn't save this to hand history but the numbers should be close enough for my question.

PokerStars $2 multi-table NLHE tourney--blinds 25/50 maybe 700 of 1100 left

I am in MP with A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifK /images/graemlins/diamond.gif with a stack about T1000, much below average. I raise to T300, CO calls, Button goes all-in for about 850, SB goes all-in for an amount that also has me covered, and its to me.

My thinking is that I am probably behind here, but given my stack and the pot odds it seems like a good place to shove-in. It was also in my mind that this was a $2 tourney and I had seen some less-than-tight calls and raises. So I went in, prepared to triple up or leave with a clear conscience.

My question is, do these pot odds of close to 3.5:1 justify calling two hands with AKs? Or should the likliehood of my hand trailing at this point take precedence?

For those who have to know the results. CO also called the all-in (!?) SB held pocket eights and turned a set, no help to me and I was out with no grousing. Co and Button's hands were mucked, so I don't know what they called with, but they didn't beat 3 eights.

Thanks for any thoughts you might have about my call or the thought process.

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
My question is, do these pot odds of close to 3.5:1 justify calling two hands with AKs?

[/ QUOTE ]

Looks like it to me, but I ran a few hands on two dimes just to be sure.

Against:

88 and KK - EV=.304
88 and JJ - EV=.386
88 and AA - EV=.121
88 and AQs - EV=.36
88 and AKo - EV=.229

So, unless you're pretty sure one of your opponents has AA, its probably a good call, especially for a short stack.

[crockpot]

i definitely agree with this call in a ring game. if one of the others has AA, KK or AK you will be in trouble, but against two pocket pairs or a pocket pair and AQ, you are getting odds that are good enough to justify your call getting 3.5:1.

in a tournament, i'm not sure. if you were thinking purely of your tournament EV, this call is probably going to cost you a little. but i think at this stage of a $2 tournament i would rather get some chips or get out so i can play a ring game.

[JDO]

<i>My thinking is that I am probably behind here, but given my stack and the pot odds it seems like a good place to shove-in.</i>

The only hands that you are WAY behind to are AA and KK. And the fact that you hold one of each makes it less likely that anyone has AA or KK. Otherwise, you are little bit less than coin-flip-odds against any pocket pair and nice favorite to just about any other hand. I think Skalansky has an in depth chapter on this topic in TPFTAP. I wonder what I would do if I paid 50 bucks to get into the tourney, but in this case I would call.

[curmudgeon]

My experience with this type of call has been pretty bad.
The problem is that at least one hand with Aces or Kings is usually up against you, which tips the scales more towards the pocket pair.

The only time I would have won is the one time I folded and the 2 all-ins both had medium pairs (my win probability was still less than 40%). Yesterday I lost to AQo when a Q flopped, but since no A or K hit the board I would have lost to a pair if the board had not hit any of us.

Even though the pot odds are there, I don't think its a smart tournament call, especially at a higher buy-in.
The best case scenario puts you up against 2 A? hands with just under 50% wins, but you drop to 35% when one of those hands is a pair.

Pot odds don't keep you in the tournament.
Good cards + wrong moment = disaster

Patience and Survival /images/graemlins/cool.gif

----------------
"Beware the awesome power of a large group of stupid people."

[Che]

While this might be a bad call on the bubble, I think it is a must in the given situation. Consider:

1. Folding leaves you with T700, approximately 1/4 the average stack.
2. Next blind increase is 50/100. You won't be able to make a meaningful flop bet if you open for 3xBB so you're going to have to start jamming it all in pretty soon anyway. Why not do it now when one win can get you a decent sized stack (as opposed to doubling through a 700 stack later and still having a stack that is 1/2 the average)?

[JohnG]

[ QUOTE ]
Even though the pot odds are there, I don't think its a smart tournament call, especially at a higher buy-in.
The best case scenario puts you up against 2 A? hands with just under 50% wins, but you drop to 35% when one of those hands is a pair.

Pot odds don't keep you in the tournament.
Good cards + wrong moment = disaster

Patience and Survival /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

What the better option? Possibly getting knocked out now on what you consider a correct gamble that will accumulate a big stack if you win, or slowly blinding away and getting knocked out when you move all-in with A5o as a desperate short stack?

[Edge34]

It was a good call. Very short-stacked, as you say you were, and looking down at suited AK, you HAVE to go with this hand here. If you just sit around and wait, you're likely to get blinded off. This a one of Sklansky's group one hands, and you've just gotta play it. Then let the chips fall where they may.