Can a player weak on mathematics have success?long

I had an interesting discussion with a friend of mine earlier this evening regarding the following subject/question. I have contemplated moving up in weight class to the $10-$20 ring. I even thought about sitting at a pot limit game where the blinds were $1 and $2. Before I get so bold I would like to solicit some advice from all of you bright poker minds.


Can a player without a strong mathematical foundation become a winning player? Can such a player have a chance at a $10-$20 or $15-$30 hold em game?


I have close to 400 hours of small limit poker. I play $5-$10 and $4-$8 Texas Hold em. I once took a shot at a 10-20 Hold em game. I realized the game was played much differently than the lower limit games I had become accustomed to, and I havent returned since. I probably played much too tight, however I did have a winning session. Right now I currently earn $14.28 an hour.


I have read and re-read most of the material from Sklansky and Malmuth. I just wonder how far that a player can go with that information. I cannot calculate odds on the spot. I have no clue how to compute or use Bayes theorem at the table. I do try and figure out how many combinations of hands a player might have, however I dont use any mathematical formulae to figure them out. I do calculate pot odds and if I am "getting the best of it".


Before I take the step up to $10-$20 I wanted to solicit some opinions. I don't want to become "trapped" in the lower limits. I don't want to develop any "bad" habits playing the lower limits.


Any advice would be welcomed.


Best wishes


MK....

an outfielder can catch a fly ball even though he can't do differential equations in his head. unless he plays for the cubs, in which case he can do neither.


if you can internalize the mathematical processes in such a way that they're reasonably close to reality, then there's probably not much reason to worry about it. if your poker logic is solid, then exact calculations probably aren't necessary.


the club

why not read sklansky's last two essays at cardplayer...essentially, ya gotta know the basics, but great math ability is not what makes the top players...give it a shot...gl

Mike,


I've been playing winner poker for a few years without a strong mathematical background. As long as you're instinctively right, you'll have no problems. If you end up getting some poor results at the higher limit, examine your game and do more work on this aspect if you feel it's the problem. Good question ! B.

MK,

I'm no math guru for sure. I never finished high school and algebra is a wha? At age 40 I went to college and took an entrance exam. Basic algebra was needed. fractions no prob, division etc. You get the picture.


For what it's worth. Memorize how many unseen cards are left in the deck for each round. Take QJs for example. flop: 9,10,5 two of your suit, (this is easy) How many CLEAN outs do you think you have? Truthfully only 6 (the str8)but probably 15 most of the time depending on your opponents. They are 9 unseen spades, and 6 str8 cards(2 of your open ender are spades dont recount them)with 47 unseen cards, assuming flush good, your gonna get there roughly 60% of the time(I think it's actually just a bit less but close).

So know it makes sense especially with multiple players to jam the pot for value In the long run you profit.


But wait, check your position, and your players. Do you want to push them out? or maximize if you hit. While you may be an overall money favorite if you run them all out but the one guy with 2 pocket kings and hit youonly gain a coupla bets.

And if you miss it may have cost you 2 extra bets jamming at this pot. Sometimes it's worth it to keep'em in for a higher return on your money when you hit. So it's not all math, but it has alot to do with it. I rarely jam multiways with so many outs if I think it will not be imensley(SP) profitable.


But then you may want to push 'em out so your overcards are good. Now you may have 6 more outs.


I was told that with two cards coming, you multiply your outs by 4 to get a percentage of "getting there". However this guy also told me that the more outs you have the lower the "multiplier"(4). Just slightly less.


You have a pocket pair. Say 9's. the flop comes 2 suited, with 1 overcard. There were 5 players seeing the flop for 2 bets each(10 bet pot). Your facing a bet and a call. (12 bet pot so far) What are your chances?


I always look at the suit first. A: do I have that suit 9 in my hand? If I do that's one less out for them and 2 fairly clean outs for me. But I'm now only 22-1 to get there basically. The pot is only 12 bets. It doesnt make sense for me to go on. Now make that flop smaller then my 9's and I may RAISE to make them good and more costly to the drawers. But there are those hands that I get

where my pair is not of the SUIT and I am sure the pot will pay me off on the trips but now I just lost an out because I think someone is drawing to that flush. So if THAT 9 hits I'm in deep doo doo. Time to muck before I get too involved.


So you dont have to know TONS of math. Just the basics in my opinion. And I could be totally wrong. I would love to hear from others. I often blast over some stuff on this forum that is too mathy for me. I have been doing ok with stuff like above however. My last 425 hours (finally being strict about records) have shown a profit.


Math alone doesnt cut it though. Position, wow now that makes a big difference. knowing your players. This can be huge. Believing your instincts. That'll save ya some bets.


So go memorize the Simple charts like John Vorhas

"pocket rocket chart" Keep it in your shirt pocket for a bit. Then refer to occasionally. The math will come. But pay attn to the number of bets in the pot and your outs.


Good Luck and let the forum know how ya do.

Larry,


Your advice is one of the most sensible one I have seen in this forum. I do agree that although a good knowledge of math helps, it is but one of the ingredient of being a good poker player. And this may even be debatable. I'm sure that there are lots of players who cannot differentiate odds from probabilities or variance from std dev. who are winners because of good instincts, discipline and good grasp of the game gained through experience. And there those who have all the permutations, combinations and the statistical tools in their arsenal but could barely get even. Simply because their thinking are too logically narrowed down to their mathematical skills and they do not include into the equation the other ingredients in the recipe of a good poker player -emotional control, discipline, good player read, etc.


MK, I surmise that you have the tools but is it self confidence or lack thereof that holding you up? If your hourly winning rate is what you claim to be, you have a big enough bankroll to try deeper waters. If things don't work out and only you can determine this, 4-8 and 5-10 will still be there waiting for you. Good luck and keep us posted of your progress.

In one of the Poker Essay books by 2+2, a young guy is trying to explain how he decides whether to call or fold a hand and says something like "I base my decision on a multitude of factors, such as implied odds, pot odds, expected value, etc." An old man next to him says "If the pot is big, I call, if it is small, I fold" The young man pauses and thinks and says "Yeah, I guess you can do it that way too".


mathematics helps, but common sense is good enough sometimes. as long as you know estimates of the basic percentages of drawing to common outs(flush draw, straight draw, trips and 2 pair to full house, etc.) you should be just fine. I think math is useful at the table, but for the hardcore #s I just let other people at 2+2 figure it out and spend my time on things such as trying to get better at reading hands and players, which is very important once you get the basic math down(can a raise slow this guy down? what does a 3bet from this player mean? would he make this play with only a draw? and so forth). Just my 2 cents.


DN

Sure. You could get by with memorizing odds of hitting x number of outs with 1 and 2 cards to come. Make an adjustment for how often your hand'll be good if you hit and you're there. Counting the pot does help, but that's an easy habit to develop.


Or, as has been said time and again, call if the pot is big; fold if it's small.

Calculating odds is easy. First you do it in terms of small and big bets, not in $.


X:Y


X is the amount of small/big bets in the pot, so just keep track of how much is in the pot. This should quickly become automatic as someone else has pointed out in this thread, and Y is most often 1 or 2 which shouldn´t cause you much of a problem either. When you go to the turn, divide the pot by 2 before the betting starts to account for the change from small to big bets (you want the relationship to be X:1, not X:2, or X:4 if someone raises).


All you have to do now is to transform your outs into odds, and compare that with the roughly estimated implied odds, so "If its big I call, if it´s small I fold" would certainly be a good advice too.

Just a comment on this part.


"I was told that with two cards coming, you multiply your outs by 4 to get a percentage of "getting there". However this guy also told me that the more outs you have the lower the "multiplier"(4). Just slightly less. "


At any given point there are aproximately 50 cards out that you don't know about. The number of outs times 2 gives a percentage. With two cards to go, 2 x 2 gives you 4. So that's where that comes from.


You can apply the same logic at other points as well. For example, pre-flop, you have 33. What's the odds of getting a set? There are 3 cards to go, and 2 outs, so 3 x 2 x 2 (cards to get, # of outs, x2 to convert to pct.) gives a rough answer of 12%.


Another example. 15 outs, one card to go = 15 x 1 x 2 (15 outs, 1 card to go, x2 to convert to pct.) = 30%.


These are rough estimates, of course, but should be within 3% and usually closer. They're easy to do and give you a starting point.