The Experiment (tm) - First Hand

[ZeeJustin]

Sorry this took so long, and I only have one hand for you to today. This wasn't as easy to compile as a thought it would be. I will do more hands, although I'm not sure how many, or how often. Hopefully I'll be able to work out an easy system that lets me get a lot of hands going at once.

Anyway, I dealt about 10 hands out using a real deck of cards, and I decided that this one would be a good one to start the experiment with. I picked this one because I think it could be played many ways, both preflop and after the flop. I simulated this hand using 3 groups of people, and each one played it differently. On top of that, I played the hand out a 4th way when I played it myself. I decided to "disqualify" one of the groups for two reasons. One, it still isn't done yet, and would delay this. Two, a person open raised with 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and explained he did this just to mix it up, even though he would not do this in a ring game. I decided that I didn't want any of that, at least not this early in the experiment.

One thing that made this a hastle was having to wait for the crappy hands to fold, so I decided to just ignore my earlier policy of making sure there's a name behind every decision. This shouldn't really affect things.

Here are the guidelines I gave every player before they made a decision. For future hands, refer to these guidelines:

1: Assume everyone at the table is a good winning player, that is most likely tight aggressive.
2: Do not talk about the hand with any 2+2ers until after the results are posted.
3: Do not worry about advertising or making any plays that aren't +ev in the short run, that may be in the long run.
4: If you have aim, please IM me your response. My aol SN is ZeeJustin.
5: Don't overthink decisions. If the answer seems obvious, it most likely is. Most of the decisions will be rather straightforward.
6: To save time, please make multiple decisions in one response. I.e if you open raise on the button, feel free to also add that you will cap if reraised, or even that you will bet or raise any flop. Obviously, I won't tell your opponent this decision was made ahead of time.
7: Each hand (unless otherwise specified) is 10 handed limit hold-em. To simplify things, the betting structure is 2/4, with 1/2 blinds. You can throw in some 0's or funky currencies if it makes this more interesting for you.


Ok, here's the first hand. I think it's more fun if you try to play the hand out yourself. Feel free to post how the hand would have resulted if you were playing for everyone.

Player 1 (SB): 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Player 2 (BB): A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Player 3: T /images/graemlins/spade.gif 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Player 4: K /images/graemlins/spade.gif 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif
Player 5: 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif
Player 6: 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Player 7: Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Player 8: 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Player 9: 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Player 10: 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif
Flop: K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Turn: 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
River: Q /images/graemlins/club.gif

Here's the roster I chose to go with. For each hand, the first name listed is part of group 1, and the second name is part of group 2. I will change the roster / groups for each hand.


Player 1 (SB): 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif - Varsity Chillin, AceHigh
Player 2 (BB): A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif - Homer J. Simpson, Nottom
Player 3: T /images/graemlins/spade.gif 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif - Tony Gregg, James282
Player 4: K /images/graemlins/spade.gif 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif - Edge34, ArchAngel71857
Player 5: 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif - Esspo, Hatchthunder
Player 6: 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif - GuyOnTilt, Diplomat
Player 7: Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif - MajorKong, In Tha Cup
Player 8: 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif - Speck, Bobcards
Player 9: 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif - Lori, Stripqueez
Player 10: 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif - Baby Huey, Eugeneel

Here's how group 1 played it:
Folded to Baby Huey on the button who open raises with 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB Folds. Homer 3 bets in the big blind. Huey calls.
Flop: K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
Homer bets. Huey calls.
Turn: 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Homer bets. Huey raises. Homer reraises. Huey folds.
Homer takes the pot of 8.25 big bets down with A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif after hitting his flush on the turn and making the best hand.

Group 2:
Folded to Eugeneel on the button who open raises with 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB folds. Nottom 3 bets in the big blind with A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Eugene caps. Nottom calls.
Flop: K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
Nottom checks. Eugene bets. Nottom calls.
Turn: 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Nottom bets. Eugene folds.
Nottom takes the pot of 4.25 big bets down with A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif after hitting his flush on the turn and making the best hand.

I played this hand very differently. I open raised with QJo, and both 88 and AJ in the BB called. I wasn't sure whether or not the 88 should 3 bet or not, but I was pretty confident with my open raise with QJ. Maybe I just lean to Abdul's opening strategies while most players don't. I found it interesting that both Cup and Majorkong folded here.
When I played the hand for myself on the flop, AJ checked, QJ bet, hoping that the flop missed both players. 88 raised. AJ cold called, and QJ had an easy fold despite opening the betting.
On the turn, I led out with AJ because I figured that had I checked, the button would only bet the same hands that he would raise with had I opened, so if AJ opens, he is likely to be able to get 3 bets in on the turn.
I guess the 88 player assumed a king would check raise, and was a little baffled, and was hoping he was up against a 4 or a smaller pocket pair, so 88 called AJ down on the turn and river.

Interesting decisions in the hand:
Should QJo open raise?
If QJo open raises, what does 88 do?
If 88 open raises, does AJ 3 bet or call? If AJ 3 bets, should 88 cap?

Please post any suggestions, thougts, critiques, or comments. Anything well though out is appreciated.

I posted this poll last time, but it didn't get much of a response, so I'm going to repost it.

[Ed Miller]

88 should 3-bet an open-raiser who could have a hand like QJo, and I don't think it's close. You just have to force the blinds out.

Also, in a game full of tough players, there is no way in hell that I'm coming in with QJo from four off the button. I also didn't think my decision was close.

[stripsqueez]

i enjoy this sort of analysis - i think it was a good idea

a debate about QJo was started in the short handed forum recently - i got expressions of horror that i open raised it UTG regularly, not always, in paradise 5 max games - we all agreed that it is an auto fold UTG in a party 6 max game - i would routinely fold it on this hand but i think its a bit close

the good news about raising 98 of diamonds to "mix it up" is that you got to show it to the table

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[Inthacup]

Also, in a game full of tough players, there is no way in hell that I'm coming in with QJo from four off the button

Agreed. The chances of you getting 3-bet by LP is just too great.

[ZeeJustin]

[ QUOTE ]
there is no way in hell that I'm coming in with QJo from four off the button

[/ QUOTE ]

The button is seat 10, and QJ is in seat 7, so it's only 3 off the button. I'm guessing this wouldn't change your stance though.

I knew there would be controversy over this play, which is why I cited Abdul. According to Abdul, you can generally open 3 off-the button with 55, A7s, K9s, T9s, J9s, KJo and QJo. He also states that if the game is very tight (meaning either overly tight, or correctly tight), that any play he suggests making X seats off of the button, you can now make X+1 off of the button. I'm guessing most 2+2ers are very tight, so I'm assuming this means that according to Abdul you can make this play even 4 seats off of the button.

Kong, thanks for your comments. I'm not trying to prove that I am right, nor am I even confident that this is right. I'm just trying to generate discussion.

Also, I should point out that Abdul's opening strategy is obviously not perfect, and certainly does not apply to every game. Even if he claims opening with QJo here is fine, that does not automatically make it correct.

[Nottom]

The more I think about it, the less I like my turn bet. What does everybody else think?

[stripsqueez]

[ QUOTE ]
The more I think about it, the less I like my turn bet. What does everybody else think?


[/ QUOTE ]

i am certainly betting 88 if you check to me on the turn - i dont like betting out either as it seems reasonably certain given the betting so far that the button is going to bet the turn, and i want to put as much $$ in as possible

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[Nottom]

Yeah I figured if he had nothing, he would fold. If he had something he would bet if I checked. If he had a little something, he might check the turn but call a river bet. Of course I really don't want to give a free card to AK (or a pair) either.

[daryn]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In risposta di:</font><hr />
According to Abdul, you can generally open 3 off-the button with 55, A7s, K9s, T9s, J9s, KJo and QJo.

[/ QUOTE ]



and according to my dog i should be capping with any two cards.. but i have considered the source and decided against it.

[daryn]

yeah i wondered about that. obviously you were worried about giving a free card.. but is that even a valid concern at that point in the hand? eugene had shown some strength by capping on the flop.. maybe you should have let him take a stab at it on the turn and then popped it on him.

[rigoletto]

and according to my dog i should be capping with any two cards.. but i have considered the source and decided against it.

Daryn your posts are allways loaded with insights!

[nykenny]

i simply believe that even in tough games, you should play QJo in Middle-Late position once in a while. I feel in this situation with QJo, it's more of a raise-or-fold decision (though i am not a big fan of this raise-or-fold approach).

And i DO think it's pretty close.

Kenny

[eugeneel]

Not to brag but I think I played my hand ideally.

Justin you could also post my reasoning that I sent you with the last pm.

-Eugene

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
According to Abdul, you can generally open 3 off-the button with 55, A7s, K9s, T9s, J9s, KJo and QJo.

[/ QUOTE ]

and according to my dog i should be capping with any two cards.. but i have considered the source and decided against it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm glad you've finally realized that more advice from Abdul and less advice from your dog would help your game.

[GuyOnTilt]

I would've played it:

QJo open-raises. 88 3-bets. BB folds, QJo calls.

Flop comes:

QJo checks, 88 bets, QJo folds.

I don't see why people aren't open-raising QJo from MP. This is SOP for me in most games.

GoT

[GuyOnTilt]

88 should 3-bet an open-raiser who could have a hand like QJo, and I don't think it's close. You just have to force the blinds out.

Without a doubt. Cold-calling here is absurd.

Also, in a game full of tough players, there is no way in hell that I'm coming in with QJo from four off the button. I also didn't think my decision was close.

QJo is actually 3 off the Button. For me, this is an easy raise. I frequently come in with a raise holding QJo from MP2 or MP3. I don't see how the fact that it's a tough table would make you want to fold this. At a table full of 2+2'ers, this raise has a better than 50% chance of stealing the blinds, and those on your left will (should, rather) never cold-call, but only be 3-betting or mucking. Since they're good players, they'll be mucking hands like KQo, ATs, and 66. I think raising QJo in this hand is right play. 88 then 3-bets, AJs folds, QJo calls and check-folds the flop.

GoT

[cero_z]

hi mk,
[ QUOTE ]
Also, in a game full of tough players, there is no way in hell that I'm coming in with QJo from four off the button. I also didn't think my decision was close.

[/ QUOTE ]
I want to weigh in on this. In a game full of TOUGH players, I will open-raise QJo in this position, and 2-3 spots earlier, as well. Actually, it helps to be in slightly earlier position. Why? Because tough players will fold lots of better hands (AJ, KJ, KQ, AT, 66 and down) most of the time. In a more normal game, I would muck it, since I'll probably face 3 or 4 opponents whether I raise or not, and at least 1 of them will have position on me. The time I would not do it in a tough game is if I'd been catching lots of playable hands over a short period of time, giving me a looser image. Continuing with this strategy, I will open UTG with 66, if I haven't played many hands recently. What do you guys think?

[karlson]

I think that you will run into a real hand when you raise with these hands from EP much more often than you seem to think. Also, people (especially tough players) do pick up on these things.

[RollaJ]

You obviously played it perfectly, I was impressed

[Nottom]

If I had checked the turn what would you have done?

[glen]

yeah ok sklansky. . .

[James282]

[ QUOTE ]
I would've played it:

QJo open-raises. 88 3-bets
QJo checks. 88 bets. QJo folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why you don't open raise from MP with QJo. First of all, people will spot you coming in light if you do this routinely. Do you really want to see the flop for 3 bets here with QJo? Especially when you can very easily be out of position, to tricky players? You have no way of knowing that the button only has 88 here, he could easily have AA, KK, JJ, AQ, AJ, or heaven forbid QQ - which all beat the crap out of you. If you routinely come in light he could also have KQ. Unless the game is overly tight, having your SOP be open raise with QJo from MP seems like a good way to win the blinds sometimes, do a lot of check-folding on the flop, or paying off a lot hands which dominate you. Playing for real money(and not messing around at .5/1) I don't think that this raise is going to show you any sort of long term profit.
-James

[Inthacup]

Not to brag but I think I played my hand ideally.

I'd like to hear why you capped with 8 8. You're most likely either a 50/50 shot with the 3-bettor or you're a little more than a 4:1 dog. I know you have position, but I don't see much benefit to the cap.


Otherwise, I like the flop and turn play.



Cup

[James282]

I responded to GoT without reading the other responses which basically said exactly what I said, oops! Anyway, I think that people are leaving out one small thing that makes the QJo raise on this specific table an errant play. Most 2+2 players are very tight, this is true. However, it is very important to know if you are playing against strictly tight players or "tight-observant" players. Perhaps the 2+2 table is a bad example because everything is shown, but after "wheatbeer" showed down a couple hands like QJo for an open-raise from MP he started getting three-bet and isolated very frequently. I consider myself pretty tight, and after this accelerated amount of player information came in he found himself being three-bet by several hands that I would fold against a player who is actually "tight"(doesn't raise QJo from MP). Again, doing this to vary your play is one thing, but if I have played a lot of sessions with you and have somehow figured out you will open-raise with QJo from three off the button, and I have position against you, you will find yourself playing a lot of heads up pots for 3 bets with QJo.
-James

[Nottom]

I actually liked the preflop cap. It makes it really hard for overcards to call if they miss the flop.

[daryn]

you know what i never understood? why is there just one notation for a suited hand? for instance...

A /images/graemlins/club.gifJ /images/graemlins/club.gif is.. AJs

A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif is... AJs..


why don't we just adopt a notation that uses the same amount of letters but is totally unambiguous..

for instance, AJc, AJd, AJh, AJs.. it just makes sense to me. every time i read a post where a guy is like, ok.. so i have AKs and raise.. the flop comes all the same suit, but not the one i have.. , i always think it would be so much clearer if the guy said, i have AKd and raise, flop comes all clubs...

anyone else or am i just insane?

oh by the way, who is this abdul? why should i give him respect?

[daryn]

he would bet undoubtedly

[Joe Tall]

I know exactly what I would do from every seat...get up and find another one at a different table. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Peace,
JT

[Nottom]

I would think so, but seeing as he is the best heads-up player on the net I was wondering if he would have sensed a check-raise coming after I called his flop bet.

[Schneids]

I think you can get away with this very occasionally. However, if you ever have to show that you raised with this, do not do it again for a long time.

The idea you present though is basically the gap concept applied to ring games. Against tough opposition it'll work until they observe you're raising without much, then, they'll start 3-betting you and take advantage.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
oh by the way, who is this abdul? why should i give him respect?

[/ QUOTE ]

posev.com (http://www.posev.com/poker/holdem/index.html)

You can search the archives here at 2+2 and search RGP to find the answer to your first question.

The second question is one you'll have to figure out yourself.

[eugeneel]

I always cap with hands that are strong HU when I have positional advantage. This includes 88-AA and AK and sometimes 55-77 (depending on opponents, but 88 is my cutoff where I would do it against almost anyone). I think that it makes it easier for me to play the hand post flop as I have shown a lot of strength, and when the opponent shows even more strength (like in this case) it is easier for me to fold. I think my opponent is much less likely to bluff when he sees that I believe I have the superior hand preflop (which I demonstrate by capping). I guess capping with the 88 is more of a personal style thing Cup.

If Nottom would have checked, I would have bet and then folded to his raise.

-Eugene

[ZeeJustin]

In hindsight, cold calling the raise with 88 is obviously wrong. I don't know what I was thinking. Does anyone fold 88 after MP open raises?

[ZeeJustin]

[ QUOTE ]
I put my opponent on a king of some sort and I am forced fo fold here. I know most good opponent would bet into me here because they think they have the best hand at this time so they do not want me to see a free diamond. Unfortunately here I am forced ro put my opponent on an AK or KQ or (less likely) a bigger pocket pair than mine. If this was a good opponent I would doubt that he would try to steal the pot from me with an ace of diamonds. I think that he would not call (although he could checkraise me or bet into me with this hand to see where I am...) my bet on the flop with a hand like AdQ or Adj and even if he did, I would not think that he would think that he could scare me off with a bet here since I have played like my hand was very strong.

I would not be upset at myself with the way I played this hand.

Feel free to post my reasoning behind the way I played.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was the PM Eugene sent me with his decision before his opponents hand was revealed.

[Nottom]

Nope.

[Ed Miller]

Does anyone fold 88 after MP open raises?

Not if MP is open-raising with hands like QJo I don't. /images/graemlins/smile.gif If he's opening with hands like that, I 3-bet with anything that looks reasonable.

[eugeneel]

I would sometimes do this if
1) The guy who open raised is very tight and only raises premium hands here.

2) If I have a strong feeling that the people who are left to act after me will call and I will not be able to single out the raiser.

I would rather fold than have the hand become a three or fourway one here with at least one player who definitely has a strong hand.

-Eugene

[daryn]

whoa.. i didn't think about that.. good analysis

[cero_z]

Hi Schneids,
I agree with everything you said. My post was already long, and slightly off topic, so I didn't go into what I'd do after SHOWING one of these hands. As you suggested, I go back to a "proper" tightness. But the fact is, in tough games, you can go a long time without ever showing your hand. And until that time, you can take down some small pots. And when you do get "caught", you can adjust.
And to those of you who suggested that I'll find myself 3-bet by 88 often in this spot, you are also right-but it's irrelevant. I'll often be 3-bet by hands like 88 when I open from LMP, whether I play tight or not. As long as I show the ability to make a steal raise from there, players will try isolation re-raises. I play well after the flop, so I don't mind being heads up out of position against a hand about as good as mine once in a while. What's tricky for me in tough games is getting good action on your good hands. This strategy aids that, while hopefully picking up a couple of pots in the process.

[ArchAngel71857]

I played my hand perfectly. Folded K6o UTG+1. Now everyone knows my secrets.


Pretty much Don't raise with QJo, it its suited, little better. 88 will raise, AJs should 3-bet. 88 should cap, but not every time,

if QJo open raises, 88 should 3-bet if he is going to play at all, colling is weak and doesn't give you any 411.


-AA

[Eric P]

Player 1 (SB): 4 3
Player 2 (BB): A J
Player 3: T 2
Player 4: K 6
Player 5: 7 5
Player 6: 9 8
Player 7: Q J
Player 8: 8 7
Player 9: 9 5
Player 10: 8 8
Flop: K K 3
Turn: 4
River: Q

my guess would be 98s open raises, 88 3bets on the button, AJd calls and 98 calls. AJd leads the flop 98calls 88 raises aj and 98 call. diamond comes AJ leads 98 raises 88 folds aj 3-bets call, river aj bets 98 calls aj wins

[eugeneel]

yeah eric... so how are things at those .50-1.00 tables? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[MrBlini]

[ QUOTE ]
QJo is actually 3 off the Button. For me, this is an easy raise... I don't see how the fact that it's a tough table would make you want to fold this. At a table full of 2+2'ers, this raise has a better than 50% chance of stealing the blinds....

[/ QUOTE ]A table that tight would make nearly any hand playable from this position in an unopened pot. By my calculations, if you'll take the blinds over 57% of the time with an open-raise from a given non-blind position, you should do so even if you are dealt two rank-of-hands cards (.5714*1.5 SB/hand - .4286*2 SB/hand = 0 SB/hand). When the 2+2 table had severely tightened up last night and I hadn't played a hand in several orbits, I decided an open-raise with 84o had 60%+ probability of taking the blinds uncontested and went for it. Crazy? Not entirely.

[Homer]

You're a dick eugene.

[eugeneel]

You mock guy that lost 25K by having his account with his money frozen and demands reasonable treatment... yet you call me a dick?

My comment was funny and not that offensive.

[Hatchthunder]

When are we going to have the next hand dealt? Is it going to be once a week or month or what? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Nottom]

I was wondering the same thing. Are you planning on posting a few hands at once this time? I know you have some circulating about.

[ZeeJustin]

I have a few hands going around. One is almost done and will be up soon, in the General Texas Hold'em forum.

[Eric P]

It's true, it wasn't offenseive, especially since i just re-read what i put, and had just got done playing super loose bad 10/20 and was used to that srot of play, i didn't realize that everybody playing was good. Also i said 98s would open it because i already read what he wrote about that happening, and i thought it did happen, that is probalby how it would happen if 98s did open it thoug don't you agree?

[eugeneel]

actually uyour thinking is not bad. If 89 opened that is exactly what should happen.

-Eugene