AQo in SB vs. GP steal raise

Somewhat tight game, waiting for the evening shift loose players to arrive. I'm in the SB with AQo and all fold to the button, who raises. He's a good player, one of the few regulars who is also a forumite (lurker). I see that the BB is starting to fold before I act. The button won't steal-raise without at least a decent hand. Since the BB is folding, re-stealing would be futile, as I know the button won't fold if I reraise, so I call.


the flop is Kc Tc 7d. I bet out. I'm hoping to find out where he's at with my bet. I am sure he will not goof around if he has top pair or an overpair, he will raise me, but he only calls.


The turn is a blank. I bet and he folds.


My read of him is that he either had a pocket pair smaller than kings, or he may have had AQ like I did. I doubt he would have folded second pair, so if he had a pocket pair, it was probably 99 or 88. There aren't that many hands I can imagine he would try to steal with, then play this way. Any other ideas on possible reads?


Comments?


Dave in Cali

Well, my personal steal standards range from suited K's and Q's, any A and any pocket pair, along with any 2 paint and suited connectors to 87.


I think there is quite a bit he could play this way even if he isn't as liberal as me with his blind stealing.


BTW, I strongly favor 3betting preflop even if you are 100% certain the BB is folding. You have the best hand and to not punish the stealer the one time that you have a real hand is a bad choice. You also build momentum to the flop and his play against you will be much more readable since he now has you on a big hand.

I'm interested to see if others agree with your "momentum" notion to three-bet pre-flop even if the BB is going to fold. I know what I was thinking at the time, but I might change my perspective if given good enough reasons.


Comments anyone else?


This particular player is quite solid and very conservative. He's read "the books," reads the forums and magazines, and discusses poker with other skilled players, including me. I've posted several hands where he is the adversary of the hand. He's very interesting to discuss hands with after the fact (done discreetly of course). I would estimate his stealing standards to be quite a bit higher than what you listed, especially since I know he would consider the drop on the flop, and would be less likely to try and steal with a weak hand for that reason. I probably was either slightly ahead or slightly behind, but I doubt I would have punished him very severely had I reraised.


Dave in Cali

I forgot about the high Cali drop. My standards with that structure would be considerably higher than they are out here where I don't have to pay any rake til the flop, and even then it's onle a buck if we don't see the turn. Good point.


Tommy Angelo has mentioned the momentum cncept before when it comes to battling from the blinds.

I believe the momentum concept has definite applications, and I'll be more aware of it in the future. Of course defending blinds from steal-raises is not something I spend a whole lot of time doing out here in Cali. However, it's interesting when the situation comes up as I really don't see this very often.


Since this player is aware and conservative, obviously the reraise only has momentum value, because he won't fold. He wouldn't have tried to steal if he didn't have a good enough hand to play in the event he got played back at. This might have been different back in the good ol' days when there was a time charge, his standards were probably somewhat lower for steal-raises, especially against a tight player in the blinds.