All-in on Flush Draw

[eMarkM]

$25 satellite to $650 satellite to Stars WPT Cruise. It's a rebuy tourney with unlimited rebuys in first hour with add-on. 84 participants.

In this situation it's still the rebuy period with blinds at 10/20. I have T1630, haven't rebought or anything. All other players in hand have no more than 2200, most around original starting chips. I get As Js in the SB. EP calls, MP raises to 80, three cold callers in MP/LP. I call in the SB, BB calls. There's 480 in the pot. 7 to a flop of 6s 2c Qs. I have nut flush draw acting first. I push all-in. All comments welcome.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

With that many players and a raiser I don't think I would make the same play. I'd check and see what happened first. Tho you might steal the pot, you'll also get called by AA, KK, QQ, and AQ too often for comfort. Now the fact it's rebuy might swing my opinion to neutral on the matter, but I wouldn't do it in a non-rebuy situation.

al

[curmudgeon]

This kinda play sucks...... /images/graemlins/shocked.gif
You are definitely behind, with 9 outs (35% shot at a win) or at the most 12 outs (45%) IF an Ace would win it for you, which I doubt. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[PlayerA]

I think you should check and see. The problem with your bet is that you'll either win the blinds or get one caller that you have to run down. With seven players, you want people staying in for value. With 1 or 2 other players, then semi-bluffing is ok (although the huge overbet could be correctly read as a bluff). The best scenario is that people stay in and build the pot, you hit your flush, and no one fills.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

What is the chance, in your estimation, that you win the T480 right now?

If you check, what do you think is going to happen?

If you think somebody is going to bet T200-500 and get a few callers, then I'd let them do that, and check-raise all-in. I don't mind being a 2:1 dog to win if I'm getting 3:1 or 4:1 for all my money.

What you don't really want is to get all-in and called by one hand against which you're a 2:1 dog. Given that this is a $25 event online, I think there's too much chance of exactly that happening if you push in here. If you think you'll get 2 or more callers, then it's OK.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Still the Spank E]

Asking/hoping 6 players to either a. fold; or, b. call and lose to whatever you make once the cards have all been dealt may be asking a lot. I, too, would love to know what the guy who brought in the original ($80) raise does first, even if it doesn't automaticall clarify your decision. A big bet from the guy might be for real, while a small one might be a bluff at the pot. MIGHT, mind you. The same holds true for ALL the other players, obviously.

[eMarkM]

I'm trying to transition from the game I play now, which I think is too conservatively weak-tight, to being more aggressive. And this play is indicitive of this change, perhaps overaggressive. I would have never made this kind of move before on just a draw. Part of it is advice from the Reuben/Ciaffone PLNLP book where on p. 71 they note a play where you go all-in on a draw out of position so that you don't have to worry about your position, you'll see the river, and not have to worry about getting set all-in on the turn when the odds wouldn't be there. Ok, he's talking about cash games, but the concept is the same. Point is, I'm sick of checking and calling in this situation. I also considered a check-raise all-in depending on what was bet behind me, perhaps the better play, but I was pretty set on getting my chips in the middle on the flop. That, and I thought this situation was a good place to make this move. If the spade doesn't come, I can rebuy and be right back where I was. If I get called and make my hand, I'll have a big stick to wield. I thought there was a decent chance of multiple callers as this was a pretty loose table willing to gamble on crappy hands during rebuy.

I got called by two players. BB with QTh and KK (who was a cold caller of the preflop raise, didn't reraise or I'd have never called in the first place). Spade came on the turn, giving me the nuts. I moved to T5040 and 2nd place overall. I built this stack and never dipped below 10th place in the middle game. Never rebought and didn't add on (it's amazing to me the stacks that add-on in these--why would the chip leader with 11K add 2K, makes no sense to me). After much stealing and another huge 3 way allin hand I had so many chips I actually had the table covered--and by that I mean I had more chips than everyone else at the table combined and twice as much as any other playing in the tourney. I cruised to the top 7 that paid the $650 buyin by stealing just enough to maintain my stack and avoiding large confrontations when other stacks caught up with me. It was a welcome relief to my usual short stack desparation on the bubble I too often find myself in and very easy to play after the two big hands.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

[ QUOTE ]
Never rebought and didn't add on (it's amazing to me the stacks that add-on in these--why would the chip leader with 11K add 2K, makes no sense to me).

[/ QUOTE ]

Give me all the details of the prices for buyins, rebuys, and add-ons, and I MIGHT have an explanation as to why their add-ons were correct. Do not include the vig in the cost of the original buyin, or mention it separately.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Prickly Pete]

[ QUOTE ]
(it's amazing to me the stacks that add-on in these--why would the chip leader with 11K add 2K, makes no sense to me).

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a novice when it comes to rebuy tourneys and am just curious what a good rule of thumb is for adding on. I know Fossilman has said before to take all addons, assuming it's a decent deal and you are a good player. At what point does this change when you become a big stack?

[eMarkM]

I'd like that analysis. Have only played in a few rebuys, but will be playing more now that Stars has rebuys.

$25+2 buyin gets you 1500. Unlimited rebuys first hour for $25 for 1500. Add on after first hour for $50 gets you 2K.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

[ QUOTE ]
$25+2 buyin gets you 1500. Unlimited rebuys first hour for $25 for 1500. Add on after first hour for $50 gets you 2K.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is there a typo in there? $25 for T1500, but then for $50 you only get T2000 with the addon? That doesn't sound right, though I've never played a rebuy event at PS yet.

If this is truly the chips and price, then nobody should take the addon. The original chips, plus rebuy chips, are T60/$1. The addon chips are only T40/$1. Even if everybody took an addon, the average for all the chips would still be something like T53/$1, yet you're only getting T40 for the same $1 with the addon.

In most tourneys I've played in B&M rooms, the addon chips are either the same price per chip as the buyin and rebuys, or they are cheaper than the buyin and rebuy chips.

When the addon is cheaper per chip, you should always take it no matter how many chips you've got.

When the addon is the same price, you should addon anytime you're an above-average player, even if you've got a huge stack. If your stack is approaching 10% of all the chips in play, then you should reconsider and not addon, even if you're the best player in the field. However, unless it's a very small field, how often will you have anywhere near 10% of all the chips by the end of the rebuy period?

If I change your T2000 to T3000 for $50, so the chips are the same price, I would take an addon in this event even if I had T20,000 in chips. As long as there were at least T200,000 total chips in play.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
$25+2 buyin gets you 1500. Unlimited rebuys first hour for $25 for 1500. Add on after first hour for $50 gets you 2K.

[/ QUOTE ]
Are you sure about that last part? It doesn't make sense. The addon should be 2K for $25.

[M.B.E.]

The problem with moving in like this is there's a reasonable chance you'll get called by exactly one player, which you'd hate. I think that the probability distribution breaks down something like this:

everyone folds: 20%
exactly one caller: 30%
more than one caller: 50%

Do you agree? Obviously in a "normal" game the chance of everyone folding would be higher, while the chance of more than one caller would be much less. But as you pointed out, when they can rebuy they're more likely to call all in, and since it's a low-limit satellite they're more likely to be fish who might call in any event. But still, the 30% probability of exactly one caller is problematic.

I think the correct play is to check. Then if someone bets (especially in early position) and there's another caller, then you move in. But if someone bets and no one else has called, you probably have to fold (unless the bet is small, in which case call).

[M.B.E.]

Here is what Pokerstars' About Tournaments page (http://www.pokerstars.com/tournaments2.html) says on rebuy tourneys:



[ QUOTE ]
In general, you may rebuy any time your stack size is equal to or less than the original number of chips in the tournament. this means you can rebuy once before the tournament even starts!

There may be an "add-on" available at the end of the rebuy period. Typically this will be during the first break. An add-on is just one extra rebuy. In general, the add-on is available no matter how many chips you have.

The rebuy may cost any amount, but generally costs the same as the original buyin, and gets you the same number of chips that you got for your original buyin.

The add-on may cost any amount, but generally costs the same as the original buyin, and gets you the same number of chips that you got for your original buyin.

Rebuys are not charged a rake as is the original buyin. So if a rebuy tournament has a buyin of $10+1, then the rebuys will usually be $10 and all $10 of each rebuy will go into the prize pool.

The prize pool and payoffs will not be announced until the rebuy period ends, since the prize pool increases with each rebuy.

Note that many of the rules described above are "typical" or "normal". The exact details for each tournament will be posted in the tournament's lobby.

[/ QUOTE ]

I played the $100+9 NLHE rebuy tourney yesterday. Players got stacks of 1500 to begin with, and could rebuy T1500 for $100 any time during the first hour when their stack was T1500 or less. During the first break (at the end of the rebuy period), you could addon T2000 for $100. I spent $509 in total, and did not place in the money.

[JohnG]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm trying to transition from the game I play now, which I think is too conservatively weak-tight, to being more aggressive. And this play is indicitive of this change, perhaps overaggressive. I would have never made this kind of move before on just a draw. Part of it is advice from the Reuben/Ciaffone PLNLP book where on p. 71 they note a play where you go all-in on a draw out of position so that you don't have to worry about your position, you'll see the river, and not have to worry about getting set all-in on the turn when the odds wouldn't be there.

[/ QUOTE ]

With regards the book, I am not sure Ciaffone would recommend calling this raise preflop. If you were the button, then yes. But out of position where you are building a likely drawing hand in a situation where you cannot win without hitting, I'm not so sure.

I also doubt they recommend an all-in for this big an overbet. Maybe if someone else bets first, but not when starting the betting. When they do recommend the allin overbet out of position, the main value of the move is to win it there and then, but have a lot to fall back on if called. I don't think they would recommend it if the chance of winning uncontested was small, as here.

When the flush is the nut flush draw, I also believe Ciaffone would prefer to invite players in with non-nut flush draws.


[ QUOTE ]
Ok, he's talking about cash games, but the concept is the same.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whether it is a tournament or cash game would not change Ciaffone's advice so long as the tournament was away from the big money. He believes once the blind/stack info is given, the recommended play would normally be the same. So you are right here.


[ QUOTE ]
I thought there was a decent chance of multiple callers as this was a pretty loose table willing to gamble on crappy hands during rebuy.

[/ QUOTE ]

That would be a good bet, but in that case wouldn't you also get multiple players all-in if you checked? In fact, it might be better as you may trap a non nut flush draw into playing all-in as well, when they may otherwise have folded to your huge overbet.

I think if I had the nut flush draw, and expected to get 2 calls or more with my all-in overbet, whether I actually bet all-in or not would depend on what I thought likely to happen if I checked instead. If it was likely to be checked around behind me, then I would bet all-in. If I expected a bet behind me, I would check.

[eMarkM]

Sorry, a typo. $25 gets the extra T2000.

[StuckAgain]

Why not bet the pot. Everyone folds, you're happy. If you get called then you can either re-fire on the turn or check and probably see the river for free. If you're raised, you can still get away from the hand or re-raise all-in (I'm probably going all-in in a re-buy, but folding in a feeeze out). Also helps to diguise your hand next time you hit trips and bet the pot.

One thing I'm not going to do here is check/call. If you miss on the turn, you're going to get bet at again and have to fold.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Then definitely take the addon no matter how big your stack is. I'd have to have well over 10% of all the chips in play before I'd forego this addon.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[eMarkM]

I guess I'm still confused. Ok, I understand the idea of getting the cheaper chips and it's a better deal than the initial starting chips, so I can understand always taking the add-on in that situation. But lets say you only got 1500, or the same as the initial buy in. Is there no consideration of how many more chips you're getting in relation to how many you already have? There's a threshold where it makes no sense to add-on, but I didn't think it was as high as having 10% of all the chips, which seems pretty high to me. Doesn't seem like it makes that big of difference when you're amoung the chip leaders. I figured a perk of being an early chip leader in a rebuy is that you wouldn't have to rebuy.

For example, in this event that I won I had about 8K in chips at the first break and was in 6th place. After all the add-ons, which I passed on, I dropped to 10th place if I recall correctly. I thought that was acceptable given the fact I wouldn't have to pay out double what I paid initially. Why pay double my investment to get just 25% more in chips? I had my table covered, so it didn't seem like it made sense to buy the extra chips since I couldn't really leverage them and double through someone with those extra chips. Am I thinking about this in the wrong way? What am I missing?

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Actually, you seem to be thinking about it in a very common way. I've often had ROI debates with friends which sound much like your post. They say it's got to be a bad deal for them to double their cost of playing to only get 15% (or 10, or 25, etc.) more chips.

However, the question I think you should ask has nothing to do with your current stack size, at least not directly. The question I think you should ask is the following: "If I spend $x to buy more chips, will my total EV in this event increase by more or less than $x?"

The first consideration in making this decision is how much do the chips cost, and what are they worth in front of an average player with an average stack?

This part is pretty easy, especially if the buyin, rebuys, and addons are all the same number of chips for the same price. In that case, if they were all T500 for $50 (ignore the house vig for all of this), you know that each chip is worth $0.10 in front of an average player.

If your stack is really big, then the average value of each chip goes down. However, while this is true throughtout an event, it is only of any noticeable significance when you get into or close to the money, or if you have a VERY large stack. Thus, if you have less than 10% of all the chips, and are still a long way from the money, you can ignore this issue entirely. This is typically the case in a large rebuy event.

Thus, when the addon chips are cheaper than the original chips, you should buy them pretty much no matter what. If the original chips were priced at $0.10/chip, and the addon costs $0.07/chip, then the average value of each chip after the addons are bought might be $0.09/chip. So, you would always pay 7 cents a chips when they're worth 9 cents a chip. You're making 2 cents per chip, no matter how big your stack might be.

If the price is the same, the issue comes down to how good you are. If all the chips cost 10 cents each, they're always worth 10 cents each in front of an average player. But, if you're a well above average player, then each chip in your stack might have an expectation of more like 20 cents per chip. If that's the case, then of course you should buy chips costing 10 cents that are worth 20 cents to you.

As for the big stack (but still nowhere near 10%) issue, I see it like this.

Let's say the average player is going to have 3x chips after the addons are taken. I already have 12x in chips, and am deciding if I want to addon for 1x more. It is true that whether I addon or not, I will frequently end up finishing in the same position. But sometimes, just sometimes, those extra chips will make the difference between finishing a little out of the money, instead of in the money. Or the difference between finishing 8th or 3rd. On those rare occasions, the extra money I win will make up for all the times I added on and it was "wasted".

And it's not just a question of whether your stack ever dips down to the point where you would've been eliminated if not for the addon chips. If my 13x stack dips down to 3x, those extra chips (as compared to the 2x stack if I hadn't added on) can make a huge difference in how I play a hand, or even whether I play a hand. There's a big difference in how you should play your hands when you have a T3000 stack vs. a T2000 stack, and blinds are at T150/300. With a T2000 stack, you're down to the fold or all-in decision, while with T3000, you can raise to T900 and make a postflop play as well.

Anecdotal support. Earlier this year, I'm in the super-satellite at Mohegan Sun to win a seat in the WSOP main event. $200 buyin with $200 rebuys and addons. All buys get you T200. I finish the rebuy period with about T2500 in chips. I take the double add-on for $400 to get T400 more, doubling my total cost of playing. Even without adding on I will be the chip leader at my table. About an hour later I take a bad beat, and finish the hand with T300. Presumably I would've gone bust at that point without the addon. I come back to win one of the two seats.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[M.B.E.]

Excellent post, Greg. Very clear explanation.