Holdem Turn Odds interpretation

[LetsRock]

I'm curious if any one can explain how to effectively use turn odds.

Lets say you're drawing to a four flush on the turn. Turn odds show 9 outs to be appx. 1.8:1. Of course these odds are taking into account that you'll be getting two chances to draw, so obviously it would be wrong to assume correct odds on the turn, if you don't pay to see the river as well.

Would it be correct to calculate your odds at the turn based on at least one flop bet and one river bet (1.5 BBs) (or more for a more active situation)?

I've been trying to base drawing hands on pot odds more than before so I'm trying to get a better feel as to how the turn odds really need to be considered.

Thanks

[George Rice]

Calling a bet on the flop requires looking at your implied odds. That is, comparing the money you will make versus the money it will cost you.

If you flop a four flush the odds on improving on the turn are 36:9 which is 4:1. This doesn't mean that your need pot odds of 4:1 (including the bets on thr flop) to call. It's a starting point from which to make your estimate. You need to consider the liklihood of the pot being raised behind you; Other bets that will go into the pot on the flop; The liklihood that you will win even if you make your flush (Are you drawing to the nut flush? Will a pair on board give someone a boat?); The likely number of double bets that will go into the pot after the flop if a third suited card hits on the turn. Typically, without a pair on board and when drawing to the nut flush, 3:1 odds on the flop is usually enough, even less with a pair, any straight draw, or even just an over card.

If you miss, then you go through the same process all over again. Now the bet size is double and the chances of improving are 35:9. It's possible that the pot odds will not justify a call if you have no other outs other than the flush draw (For example, if the pot was three way on the flop and you were last to act with a bet and call in front of you giving you 5:1 on your flop call. Now there is a bet and a raise to you on the turn giving you 10:4, probably 12:4, on the turn, with the posibility of getting raised again by the initial bettor. In this spot, with nothing else going for you, you should probably fold, especially if not drawing to the nut flush. But if you had a gut shot to the nut straight also going, now the chances of improving with no pair on board, and allowing for someone having a set, are 34:10 which is probably worth a call given the bets you will win on the river.). Normally, if the odds were there on the flop they will also be there on the turn as well. Just make sure to adjust for the times you hit but lose to a better hand.

[Louie Landale]

You find yourself in a 4-way raised pot with JT flop AK4; there is a bet a fold and a call and nobody behind you. You are getting 10:1 for your 12:1 gut draw. This is close, since you are sure to get action when you snag a Q but you will also lose a fair amount of the time when you DO make your straight. So you call and miss. On the turn you are getting only 7.5:1 to draw again and that's not worth it. So you figure to call on the flop and fold on the turn. If you tried to figure the odds of drawing two cards (it costs 1.5bb and your reward is 7.5bb and you are about a 6:1 dog) you would conclude that drawing is NOT profitable, which is correct.

Never-the-less, drawing one card IS correct.

When drawing to a hand clearly not worth betting or raising and won't win without improving, calculate each card separately.

The two-cards-to-go method comes into play when betting/raising IS an option or when you MAY win without improving but may be bluffed.

- Louie

[LetsRock]

So what I'm reading is that it is best to consider each card (turn and river) individually?

On a 9 outer, the river odds is about 4:1, which would be close enough for the turn. What you're suggesting is that I use this odds basis for considering drawing odds?

Why would someone go to the trouble of developing 2 card draw odds if you end up considering them separately?

For point of this discussion, I'm not looking to deal with implied odds (factoring possible raises etc), I'm just trying learn how to bet on the come at the proper time (although what I witness online seems to have no bearing in mathematical probabbility and I would swear that the fewer outs you have the better chance you have of catching /images/graemlins/wink.gif)

[George Rice]

[ QUOTE ]
Why would someone go to the trouble of developing 2 card draw odds if you end up considering them separately?


[/ QUOTE ]

It matters in no-limit when there is an all-in bet on the flop.

[Jezebel]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just trying learn how to bet on the come at the proper time

[/ QUOTE ]

Betting for value on the come really comes down to effective odds. That is the total amount you invest vs. the total you could win if you hit your hand. If you have a hand that you are likely to go to the river with, then you can bet/raise for value based on the 2 card to come odds on the flop. You can only use the 2 card odds IF you are likely to go to the river. A four flush is about a 2-1 dog on the flop to make a flush by the river. So if we can get 3 bets in on the flop for every 1 of our bets we are getting good odds as long as our flush holds up if we make it AND the pot is large enough that we can get proper odds to call on the turn to see the river. It is usually best to be drawing at the nuts if you are going to raise for value on the come. Therefore you might not want to raise a flush draw on the flop with 3 opponents if your flush draw is only Q high, or the board is paired. If you do so, you really need to be getting better than 3:1 on your investment, since the odds of having your flush cracked (if it comes in) are higher.

To bet or raise for value on the turn you would have to use the 1 card odds. Since a four flush is a 4-1 dog on the turn, then we would need 5 bets going in for every one of ours to show a long term profit.

Raising for value on a draw has the secondary value of making you look like a maniac to your less observant opponents.

[Louie Landale]

The criteria for betting/raising for value is quite a bit different than that for calling.

For betting/raising for value is, in its raw form (discounting the possibility of getting the eventual winner to fold, its affect on future bets etc.), ONLY a function of comparing how likely you are to actually win the pot with the number of potential callers. The size of the pot (now or in the future) is ignored directly, although indirectly in affects your chances to win and to get called.

Be sure to NOT confuse "win the pot" with "improve your hand".

So if you are even money to win the pot and expect exactly one caller (getting 1:1 for your bet), it doesn't matter if you bet. If you are a 2:1 underdog to win but expect exactly 2 callers (that is you are getting 2:1 for your bet) it also doesn't matter if you bet.

The 2:1 threshold is quite relevant since 2:1 is very close to the chances that you make a flush draw with 2 cards to go. So if you [] are very confident that you WILL get to the river with your flush draw, AND [] you figure you MUST make it to win, AND [] you figure it WILL win if you make it, then you should bet/raise with your flush draw on the flop if you expect 2 or more callers. I must add that those criteria are unrealistic, but its a good starting point.

In real life with a non-nut flush draw: [] You MAY have to fold the turn if the board pairs and its 2 or more bets to you [] you MAY accidentally make a winning non-flush hand (snag an Ace, snag 2 pair, snag runner-runner straight) [] Someone may have a bigger flush draw or may make a full house.

Generally with a flush draw: [1] if you fear a raise by your LHO don't bet the flush draw, and [2] figuring to get exactly 2 callers generally means don't bet or raise unless you are dead last which increases the chances of getting a "free" turn card. Getting more than 2 means its a good value bet; getting exactly one caller means you can usually profitably semi-bluff and win with a turn bet. [3] if the board is paired there must be a realistic chance of winning the pot right now.

So when considering calling, consider one card at a time. When considering betting/raising consider your entire chances.

- Louie

[LetsRock]

First of all thanks for all of your responses.

The NL example reply makes the turn odds chart's reason for existance make sense: you're not concerned with future bets when considering an all-in action.

I understand that there are further complications when considering pot odds than just the size of the pot. I'm trying to just understand the basic mathematics that should be applied to the turn odds numbers.

As a simple exercize for my pea-brain, let's walk through a hand. To keep this as simple as possible assume that I'm on the button, there will be no raises by other players and the flush will win if I hit it.

3 players see the flop. The flop brings me a flush draw (four flush).

There are 3 SBs in the pot. On the surface, 2:1 turn odds means this is an easy bet or call.

(here's where I'm a little bit confused does the 2:1 refer to THAT bet or do I need to account for the implied turn bet as well.

Do I need there to be 2 * (1SB + 1BB) for this to be a correct call?

1 bet, 1 fold. 4SB in pot to me 4:1 My bet would make it 5SB (2.5BB). Would this be a mrginal call or still good?

The turn misses. Pot = 2.5BB. 1 bet, 3.5BB in the pot to me. River odds say that I need 4:1 to make this call.

Doesn't this give me 3.5:1? Marginal call? No go?

If I accounted for the turn BB in my flop bet calculation, do I need 4:1 here to still be mathematically correct in making a call/bet or have I already given myself the correct odds?

I know this a contrived example, but I'm trying to find a simple way to apply turn odds.

Am I making this too complicated?

[George Rice]

Well, there are a few issues controling whether you should bet or call. The flush possibility is one. If you have overcards to the flop, that's another. Do you think you can steal if it's checked to you, that's a third.

[ QUOTE ]
1 bet, 1 fold. 4SB in pot to me 4:1 My bet would make it 5SB (2.5BB). Would this be a mrginal call or still good?


[/ QUOTE ]

There are 4 bets in the pot so your pot odds are 4:1 and your implied odds more than that (sometimes your opponent won't call if the third suited card comes, sometimes he will). Since you need 4:1 implied odds to call, you have a call.


[ QUOTE ]
The turn misses. Pot = 2.5BB. 1 bet, 3.5BB in the pot to me. River odds say that I need 4:1 to make this call.

Doesn't this give me 3.5:1? Marginal call? No go

[/ QUOTE ]

The pot is offering you 7:2 odds on the call. If your opponent calls a river bet (or bets himself) if you hit then your implied odds will be 9:2 = 4.5:1 Your odds of improving are 3.89:1 against. He won't always call on the end so it's a borderline call, imo. If you have an overcard or two, or a pair, then you possibly have more outs and a clear call.

[Bozeman]

On the flop, you should look at the one card odds (you are about 4:1 to improve on the turn) needing 4 sb in the pot, if you can use the two card odds (2:1), now you will probably need to call 3 sb total, so the pot needs to be 6 sb (2 of which will go in on the turn), so you need 4 sb in the pot now. In other cases, these won't give the same answer (less outs and you will often need to fold on the turn), so best to stick with your current odds to improve in one card and reevaluate on the turn. Except as discussed above,
Craig