mosch
11-29-2003, 08:59 PM
I've seen BruceZ's great post explaining how to calculate risk of ruin over an infinite period of time, but I've been finding myself wondering a slightly different question. How do I go about finding the risk of ruin for particular length of time?
I'm going to Vegas for a week in January with the intention of playing at a loss, in games that are too tough for me. Seeing as this is my actual plan, I'm trying to formulate a budget for this little adventure.
For what it's worth, the biggest game I currently take shots at live is 20/40, where I've played 20 hours at a 0.4 BB/hr win rate and a 14.2 BB/hr standard deviation. I've also logged 14 hours of 15/30 at a 0.62 BB/hr win rate, with a 17.3 BB/hr standard deviation, and 95 hours of 10/20 where I'm at a 1.5 BB/hr win rate, and a standard deviation of 18.2 BB/hr.
I'm thinking that a reasonable estimate would be that I'd lose 2BB/hr at 40/80. It would seem that for planning purposes I should just use the highest of my "known" standard deviation figures.
How do I go about figuring out how much money I should have if I want to play at least 30 hours of 40/80 with a ten percent chance of losing the stake before the week is up?
I'm going to Vegas for a week in January with the intention of playing at a loss, in games that are too tough for me. Seeing as this is my actual plan, I'm trying to formulate a budget for this little adventure.
For what it's worth, the biggest game I currently take shots at live is 20/40, where I've played 20 hours at a 0.4 BB/hr win rate and a 14.2 BB/hr standard deviation. I've also logged 14 hours of 15/30 at a 0.62 BB/hr win rate, with a 17.3 BB/hr standard deviation, and 95 hours of 10/20 where I'm at a 1.5 BB/hr win rate, and a standard deviation of 18.2 BB/hr.
I'm thinking that a reasonable estimate would be that I'd lose 2BB/hr at 40/80. It would seem that for planning purposes I should just use the highest of my "known" standard deviation figures.
How do I go about figuring out how much money I should have if I want to play at least 30 hours of 40/80 with a ten percent chance of losing the stake before the week is up?