Should i have folded the river here?

[Noodles]

Empire Poker. tighter than usual.*8 players
I am SB with A /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif
COpen limps(he is weak,calling station) button folds,I raise,B Calls (havent seen him do anything tricky yet) MP calls

FLOP 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif A /images/graemlins/spade.gif 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
I bet,both call

TURN 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif
I bet ,BB calls,MP folds

River J /images/graemlins/spade.gif
I bet,he 2 bets,I am thinking after calling me all the way and then raising he must have a flush or 2 pair.anytime someone raised on this table they had someting good so i folded?
Should i have just made the crying call?

[Mike28a]

Easy fold, don't sweat it.

[Nutz&Boltz]

I love aggressive play so don't take this the wrong way, but I think a check on the river would have been a better move. It's a good opportunity to induce a bluff/save a bet. You also avoid having to make this decision on the river.

[Noodles]

Well as i said i never saw the guy do anything tricky,I dont see why he might try a bluff on the riv if i bet twice and then checked he must obviously think i would call the riv or even if he had a pair or someting why would he try a bet?

[Nutz&Boltz]

It is a tough decision and a value bet was not a mistake. With the type of TV players I have been encountering, who love to bluff, I have been inducing more. Since I didn't read you had considered all your options on the river, I thought a check deserved consideration.

[Brian]

Hi Noodles,

Bet and call a raise.

-Brian

[MarkD]

At the end calling is a no brainer IMO.

You should not have bet the river, especially if you weren't going to call the raise. Essentially that bet, if you won't call a raise, has a negative expectation of:

EV = (1 - probabability of being raised)- (Size of Pot * probability of being raised)

which means that for the bet to be +EV the Probability of being raised (Pr) has to be
Pr <= 1 / (1 + (Size of Pot in # of BB's))

So, in your case the Probability of your opponent has to be less than 12.5% (assuming I counted right and there are 8 big bets in the pot) to even think about betting, and that's assuming that everytime your opponent bets and doesn't raise you he calls instead of folding.

[ThingDo]

Call the raise.

[Brian]

Hi MarkD,

I agree that if he weren't going to call the raise, then he shouldn't have bet. However, this is an easy value bet on the River.

-Brian

[brian0729]

Dont fold this heads up. Bet the river call the raise. Im guessing he has something like ATo.

[Noodles]

But why would he call and then raise on the river with ATo?

[brian0729]

He may think he is beat and try to bluff representing a flush. I am not saying this happens everytime, but if you fold anything other than the nuts on the river for one bet you will be opening yourself up to a lot of bluffs.

[Bob T.]

Bet and call a raise.


Me too.