By how much does your buy-in fluctuate during a game?

[Ray Of Light]

I have recently noticed that my buyin amount fluctuates by up to 25BB in a session.

I typically buyin for 30BB a session at most. And I used to become discouraged as soon as my buyin fell by anywhere up to 15BB in a session. As soon as this happened, I would leave the game with that loss or I'd tilt another 15BB away in frustration.

However, I have learnt a lot since then and the most important thing I have learnt is patience. Now when I sit down to play, I will play one or two 6 seater tables (loose passive only) for at least 3-4 hours. This means that I end up playing up to 120 hands per hour.

I now expect my 30BB buyin to swing by up to 15-25BB before grinding out any profit out of a session.

Is the fluctuation I'm getting to be expected? Or am I maybe playing a little too loosely?

[Webster]

Standard flucuation in low lvel games is about 19 BB per hour at a full ring table! Not sure about short handed.

[Sven]

I usually go into my sessions with 3 times my hourly standard deviation to ensure that I have enough $$ at the table to work with. I've never really thought about what kinda swings one level would have over another but I'm sure there is a difference. I use the standard deviation provided within pokertracker.

Standard deviation is a statistical concept that measures deviations from a mean. The mean is your win rate. The amount of “swing,” either above or below one’s win rate, is measured by one’s hourly standard deviation.

Specifically, 68% of the time you will experience a swing within 1 standard deviation of the mean. Thus, if your win rate is $20 per hour, and your standard deviation is $400 per hour, you will experience hourly swings in the range of –$380 to +$420 about two-thirds of the time. You will experience swings within 2 deviations 95% of the time, and within 3 deviations 99.7% of the time.

Hourly standard deviations are primarily a consequence of the limit you are playing. Other factors include the structure and the nature of the game, and the playing style of the participants (with emphasis on one’s own style). When good luck is heavily rewarded, and bad luck heavily punished, standard deviations will tend to increase. Maniacal games and styles consequently yield high standard deviations, while straightforward games and styles yield the opposite.

In poker, you may think of standard deviation as measuring the amount of chips that flow to and from a particular player. It doesn’t measure the flow’s direction—only its magnitude. If you take a lot of chances, a tidal wave of chips may be headed towards or away from you. If you play meekly, the flow may be reduced to a trickle.

Unlike win rates, standard deviations do not take very long to become meaningful. They typically begin to converge after about 100 hours.