Calling a river bet

[PrayingMantis]

I have a general and a bit theoretical question, but I think it has some very practical aspects. So - is there any situation in a tourny where calling a bet, NOT AN ALL-IN, on the river, is the right move?

Calling a raise PF is fine, on the flop it's ok if I have the right odds, or trying to trap, the same on the turn, but on the river - what's a possible scenario where I won't raise, and won't fold, just call? maybe if the odds are right, and I feel I'm getting bluffed? I mean - I make a calculation of how probable it is that I'm bluffed, and the pot-odds are good enough?

I see A lot of players, in low-limit buy-in tournies, calling bets on the river, and most of the times it's a bad move of course, and the callers lose. should I consider every river-caller around a weak player? always?

Only some thoughts. I will be happy if you could help me on this... /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[CrisBrown]

Hiya P.M.,

Actually yes. There are hands that are worth a check-call all the way to the river, but which aren't worth betting out on because any caller is likely to have you beaten. They're called bluff-catcher hands.

Here's a typical example:

Blinds are 50/100, your stack is T2200, and you hold A /images/graemlins/spade.gif 10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

With a limper ahead of you, you limp from the CO and Uncle Unknown (T1750) makes it T300 on the button. The other limper folds and you call.

The flop is: J /images/graemlins/spade.gif 10 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

There is T750 in the pot. Well, you have second-pair-top-kicker, but Uncle Unknown might be on JT, AJ, an overpair, or the nightmare: JJ or 55. Plus he raised pre-flop. So you check. Uncle Unknown bets T200. Well heck, that's not a very confident bet (only 2xBB), but it might be one of those "PLEASE raise me so I can put you all-in" bets. Still, you have a decent hand and you're getting 9.5:2 odds, so you call.

The turn is: 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Now there's T1150 in the pot (you have T1700 to Uncle Unknown's T1250). There are two straight draws and a flush draw on the board, and you still have only 2nd pair, so you check again. Uncle Unknown makes it another T200. Well hrmmmm ... what is Uncle up to? Is he milking you with top pair, two-pair, a set? Is he on a draw, maybe KQ or QT or 98? Doesn't seem like he'd have bet the flop on hearts unless he'd hit a pair, but you really don't know him very well so who knows. But you're getting 13.5:2 odds ... hey ... it's worth a call.

The river is: 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Hrmmm ... a flush is possible, as is a J-high or middle straight ... and you STILL only have 2nd pair. Time to check again. Uncle Unknown makes it another T200, leaving him T850 in his stack. You have T1500 right now. On the one hand, you're thinking you might want to raise to see how committed he is, but that would knock you way down if you're being trapped. You can't fold -- there's T1750 in that pot and it's only T200 to look him up. So you call ...

... and Uncle Unknown turns up A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

You rake in T1950, all the while thinking "Damn, if I'd known he was on a belly draw, I could have gotten a lot more for that pot...."

According to the FTOP, you misplayed the hand at every point. You shouldn't have called the pre-flop raise on ATs vs. AKs. But once you'd hit 2nd pair and he'd hit nothing, you should have been betting and making him pay to chase.

Except ... he was an Unknown and you had no way of getting an accurate read on him. You had a good hand to limp-call and check-call with, but a BAD hand to raise or check-raise with. After the flop, he was on a semi-bluff, and your hand was a good bluff-catcher hand. But it wasn't a hand you could play aggressively.

Cris

[PrayingMantis]

Hey Cris,

Thanks for the answer and example, I think it's a great post. Just what I was looking for: I had a feeling about calling those "bluffs" on the river, and not raising there, and you made clear it might be a good move sometimes. I also like the term "bluff-catcher".

Anyway, I guess that many of the bluffs those "bluff-cathers" catch, are bluffs made with unimproved AK, as in your example. But, as you still can't read the player, you can't be sure about it, and can't use the FTOP, as you mentioned.

Well, keep catching those bluffs, /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

PrayingMantis

[CrisBrown]

Hiya P.M.

Unimproved AK, AQ, KQ, suited connectors that hit only a four-flush, Axs or Kxs that hits for bottom pair, baby pocket pairs ... all are hands that good players who raised pre-flop are likely to keep pecking with, but often won't bet heavily in case they're beaten. And those are the hands that are typically caught out on "bluff-catcher" hands.

Keep in mind that this happens more at the higher buy-ins, though. At the lower buy-ins, people tend to be foolishly aggressive, especially early. And obviously, you wouldn't call an all-in bet from Uncle Unknown with only 2nd pair. I can't count how many times I've laid down 2nd pair to an all-in bet early in a tournament, only to see Mr. Superstar Who Will Be On The WPT Next Week For Sure turn up an unimproved AK (AQ, AJ, A2os, A-Old Maid....). I just shrug and figure he'll make that same kind of foolish bet again later ... when I've flopped a set....

At the higher buy-ins, though, people tend to be much more careful with their chips. A 3xBB pre-flop raise is not just a bigger limp, and if it's called you can be sure the caller has a hand. The raiser might have 74os ... but the caller probably has Ace-Face, suited paint, a pocket pair, or the like. And if the caller's hand hits only a little and he/she is out of position, he/she will often play it as a bluff-catcher, check-calling to the river unless he/she reads real danger in the player, the bets, or the board.

Ironically, an unimproved AK can sometimes be a good bluff-catcher hand itself. For example, I was at the final table of a SNG a few days ago, with blinds of 100/200, and caught AKs in the CO. I made it T800, and the button called. The flop was Q-10-4, which is just the kind of board that can get AK massacred if you bet out at it. So I checked. The button bet T400, and because the pot was already T2300 and I had the nut straight draw, I called. The turn was a blank, and I check-called a T600 bet (bringing the pot to T3900). Another blank fell at the river; I check-called the last T800 bet and took a T5500 pot from KJs that all-but busted him. Had I lost that pot, I'd have been down to less than T1500, but I read him for an unmade draw and the pot odds demanded a call.

Cris

[Ignatius]

Calling on the river is the best play if (a) you get correct odds to do so (b) your opponent is unlikely to fold a better hand to a raise and (c) your opponent is unlikely to call a raise with a worse hand. If your opponent will call you, no matter what, then you should only raise when you're a favorite to win the hand. If your opponent will always fold, then it's obviously correct to raise with any two.