Did I chicken out once again ...

[Saborion]

... or was it justified this time? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

1/2. Really loose and passive. 10-handed. One of my first few hands, so no reads.

I`m dealt A /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif in the BB.
EP1 limp, EP2 limp, EP3 limp, MP1 limp, MP2 limp, MP3 limp, CO limp, SB complete, I check.
8 to the flop.

[A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif] 4 BB.
SB check, I bet, everyone call.
8 to the turn.

5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif [A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif] 7.5 BB.
SB check, I bet, everyone call.
8 to the river.

J /images/graemlins/club.gif [5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif] 15 BB.
It`s checked around.

Was my river check that bad, considering everyone staying in from the flop?

My hand was good. Was pretty happy about that, you know, winning ... and so on ...

[lil']

Any chance of a flop checkraise?

As for the river, I think I would check it too against 7 people.

[Clarkmeister]

"As for the river, I think I would check it too against 7 people"

Thats suicide in loose games like this. The fact that you can get called on the river by 3-4 people makes betting absolutely mandatory. You can't leave those bets on the table.

[Saborion]

Never looked at it that way.
Even up against 7 players it`s worth a bet in this case then?
If someone raised? Too much money in the pot to fold?
I assume this is a purely statistical decision in this particular hand? So how do I calculate the odds of someone having a J, so that I can find out if it`s worth a bet if I expect 3 callers?

[lil']

I guess if you can safely fold to a raise, you're right.

[CarlNiclas]

The problem with a pure mathematical/statistical analysis of whether a J was present among the hands or not is that even though the table was loose and passive, the hands that are left are *not* random. However faulty other people's decisions of staying in the pot might be, they still make decisions about it rendering maths rather useless.

Case: the chances of seven other people not having a Jack among them (14 cards) on the River with two Jacks out is:
43/45 * 42/44 * 41/43 * ... * 29/31 = shortens to =
(30 * 29) / (45 * 44) ~= 0.44 or 44%

That makes it 56% likely of seven random hands *at that point* having at least one of the two Jacks left among them.

However, an opponent having a J on his or her hand is *much* more likely to stay until the River than one who hasn't. How to judge that is done by reading their earlier play (ok, not much to go by on this one) or knowing the players (which you said you didn't).

Anyway, I think a bet in this situation would be bad, because when you look at those extra bets you could gain alone (3 or four or whatever - although I would hazard that even though the table was really loose, I doubt you'd get that many callers with worse hands than yours) compared to the risk of getting raised or simply called with a better hand is too great because a better hand would NOT fold. Ie a bet would most likely only be called by few people who have worse hands and most definitely by all better hands. That bet alone will therefore only gain you a couple of BBs and if you would have lost the pot anyway, that bet wouldn't change anything for the better, but rather for the worse.

I might be rambling, but I hope you get my point.

[Clarkmeister]

I've been in games like the one described and seen people overcall with no pair. You underestimate how many people can and will call on the river in a huge pot just praying that they are good.

Lets use your 50% number. If you can safely fold to a raise (and in a passive game with a huge protected pot that is usually the case), then you only need to get slightly more than 1 caller on average when you are good. This will EASILY be the case. In fact, I'd guess a conservative average of at least 2 callers. That makes your EV of betting .5BB. For a game where you are trying to win 1BB/hr it is a gross mistake to leave that half a bet on the table simply because of fear that you might lose.

Overcalls on the river in loose games are one of the biggest and easiest sources of profit you will ever get. You simply don't get that extra money in tougher games. Failing to take advantage of it is a big mistake.

[Saborion]

And what about the wicked player that sometimes bluffraise you? Is it a good idea to fold when there`s so muc money in the pot?

Depends on where the raise came from?

[CarlNiclas]

As Clarkmeister said, if the game is as you described it (very loose-passive) with lots of overcallers, a bluff-raise at the end is very very unlikely considering you have bet all the way from the flop. However, in the situation above, I still think a check would be wiser since in my experience, I have found that at these limits (at Paradise, mostly), people will call with almost anything to the river, but will fold when no more cards are to come. YMMV.

But if you do bet and are raised and you suspect that a possible bluff-raiser is among the crowd, you will have to call. The odds for one have to be very low indeed (18:1 or thereabouts) for you to abandon, considering the rest of the pot.

[Guido]

Why not raise pre-flop? I would...
Bet the flop, turn and river.

[Saborion]

AQ is not all that good multiway, is it? Why raise when I don`t have position and at best 2 players would fold? Isn`t it better to see a cheap flop? With AQs I might`ve raised.

My biggest mistake in this hand is to not check-raise the flop.

[markcinva]

another reason to bet is that it isn't just this hand you have to worry about, it's how often will you win in similar situations. At this point, you are beat, or your aren't. If you aren't, you should pick up the bets from those standing with poor kickers and people who just can't give up their PP's. If you lose 2 out of 3 times (you won't) but pick up 4 bets the time you win, you've made money)

[Guido]

AQ is not all that good multiway, is it?
True

Why raise when I don`t have position and at best 2 players would fold?
You have the best hand and want to win as much as possible.

Isn`t it better to see a cheap flop?
True, if you can't easyly lay it down postflop if you miss.