Dealing with a scare card

[PrayingMantis]

PS 5$ SNG. 3rd level. My stack is around avarage, 8 players still around. I'm dealt 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif on the SB. Everybody folds to MP, somewhat shorter stack than mine, a very loose player, limps with many less than marginal hands. He limps again. It is folded to me and I complete.

flop: K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

We all check.

Turn: J /images/graemlins/club.gif

I know I am much ahead here, so I check, waiting for a bet from MP, who showed some agressiveness earlier on the turn cards, when he hits ANYTHING on the turn, bottom pair, whatever. And he does bet 150T. I put him on any J, and figuring I am much ahead - I call, with an intention to milk him on the river. BB folds.

River: A /images/graemlins/heart.gif


Well, what do I do? the only thing this guy has that beats me now, if I'm reading him right, is AJ. Most Chances he has one of: JK, JQ, JT, J8, J7, J6, J5...
I saw him calling bets with medium pairs before. I bet the pot. Is that a mistake? Is checking here the only option? or maybe a much bigger bet?

Well, he calls with A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif.

What do you do with scare-cards like this? Especially with someone who'll limp with anything? I thinks that is something in my play I must improve. Although, I'm not sure I made a mistake here. Any thoughts will be appriciated...

[CrisBrown]

Hi PrayingMantis,

So okay, you're up against a hybrid here: half-Elephant, half-Jackal. He seems to be an Elephant pre-flop (a Jackal would have raised on AJ), but a Jackal once the cards come out (will raise if he's hit anything at all).

Hybrids are more difficult to read, obviously. I might have put in a sniffer bet at the flop, hoping to take the pot there but also to gain information.

Once the J hit on the turn, you were in a very difficult position. Although you had two-pair, he might have been on QT -- a reasonable limp-check hand, and one which gives him the nut straight. You read him correctly for Jx, and you were ahead at the time. But I'm concerned about your over-confidence in that read, and your trying to "milk" someone who might very well have you dead to six outs (only another J or 9 gives you the nuts).

Even if you're certain he's on Jx, he's most likely to be on AJ, QJ, or JT, giving him 12 outs to beat you on the river. That, plus the possibility of the straight, makes slowplaying two pair an invitation to fate.

So I'd have check-raised at the turn. You'll quickly find out if he's hit the straight (he'll almost certainly go all-in). If he hasn't, he may give YOU credit for the straight and fold his hand (not a bad thing).

Once that A hit at the river, you have to check, and fold to any huge bet. He might have been on A9 or A6 (also limp hands that he might have checked at the flop and bet at the turn), and of course AJ and QT are still possibilities. You have two pair, but they're 3rd and 4th pair vs. an A-high and straight board.

Discretion was clearly the better part of valor here.

Cris

[PrayingMantis]

Hi Cris,

Thank you for a great analysis. That's exactly what I was looking for. I think you got it right, I tend not to take in calculation those straight possibilities, and it's rather a problem.

But I think I don't understand somethin. You say: "he's most likely to be on AJ, QJ, or JT, giving him 12 outs to beat you on the river" . How do you calculate this? I see here only 3 outs for AJ, 7 outs with QJ, and with JT - another 7. Am I wrong? I think he doesn't have anything that is over 7 outs to beat me, unless it's the QT, which already killed me.

Please help me with this,

PrayingMantis /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Eric P]

i didn't read the other responses but i think they probably will resemble mine. that call on the turn was horrible. What if he has a king? he can hit his kicker or the other card that flopped and crush your hand, i would NEVER call with such a strong-but vunerable hand. i would probably go all-in, and thank the guy for calling with aj if he does, but if not then i'm o.k. with that too, even with AJ any king gives him the pot too. Really this is not a hand you milk someone with, you cost yourself this pot. And that ace probably should have scared you, i would have checked it down assuming i screwed myself (actually i'm not sure i owuld have, but now that i know it i'm telling myself i would) but really i think the turn was a blunder. If you hadn't not raised on the turn you wouldn'th ave to deal with the river. note that any underpair he has also gets to draw to river you for free.

[PrayingMantis]

OK, I'm wrong. New outs calculation:

With AJ he has 6 outs to beat me (3*A + 3*K)

with QJ he has 10 outs (3*Q + 3*K + 4*T)

and with TJ it's 10 again, as with QJ.

I need to practice more on this thing...

Anyway, I agree that the call on the turn is a bad play. It's clear to me now.

[CrisBrown]

Hiya P.M.,

You had to fear 12 cards: 4xA + 4xQ + 4xT. Any one of those makes it almost impossible for you to play your two-pair with confidence, so that's why I said he had 12 outs.

Cris