Looking for comments on how I played this hand

[Cornbread Maxwell]

This hand is from the Pokerstars $20 Multitable tournament tonight, with 654 entries. At this point I am at about #38/50, with T31680. This is below the tournament average, obviously, so I am looking to either steal or double up. Blinds are $3000/6000 with $300 antes so there is over $11K in the pot.

I am dealt A /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif in the SB. Everyone folds to me. On the BB is a reasonably tight player (so far as I know) who has T36310.

Now, I decide to merely complete the SB, taking a gamble that he will try to put a move on me with a mediocre hand. Sure enough, he puts me all in and I call.

He turns over Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif so I am fairly happy because I am a 2 to 1 favorite and I need to double up.

Flop comes J /images/graemlins/heart.gif 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif unfortunately, and then 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif to give him the nuts. River brought a K /images/graemlins/spade.gif but it only added insult to injury. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

So the question is, did I play this correctly or should I have gone all in myself and hoped that he would fold? My intuition says that he probably would have laid QJo down in that position, but it is hard to say for sure. I wasn't sure if it was better to take the fairly 'sure' $11-12K in the pot, or look to trap him with a good chance to win about 37K more if he put a move on me.

In my justification, I really thought that I needed to double up, (a win would have put me in great position) and I was trying to trap him with a great hand in order to have a chance to do so. I would still like to know what the experts would do in this situation.


Thanks in advance.

[CrisBrown]

Hi Cornbread,

I'd have put him to the decision, rather than vice-versa. AK isn't a hand I like to slowplay -- in fact, I prefer not to see a flop with it. He might have called regardless, and after that ... well ... bad beat. But I would have put him to the test with an all-in move.

Cris

[sam h]

I don't think AK is the hand you want to do this with. Winning the blinds and antes is 12000 chips, 33% of your current stack. I'd be happy to take that uncontested any day.

[Cornbread Maxwell]

Thanks, Cris.

So there is rarely ever a point where you'd rather 'gamble' on winning around $50K when you have a likely 2 to 1 edge, or should you always take the 80-90% chance at the $11000 in the pot without contestion in nearly every situation. I simply figured that your logic is correct if I have a big stack, but with a small stack I could take a gamble and maybe catch him on A6 or K9 or something weak to possibly double up. If I get an extra $11K, I'm still not in a great position to finish in a good position, but if I doubled up, I liked my chances to make the final table.

Of course, if I think it's very likely that he will check instead of raising, I will raise instead of completing the SB.

[CrisBrown]

Hi Cornbread,

The problem with slowplaying a hand like AK is that you really don't have anything except A-high yet. Against two undercards you're only a 2:1 favorite (believe it or not), and what's worse, if the BB had checked you'd have been out of position with no way to know if you were ahead or behind in the hand, because he's on two random cards. That's a bad place to be with just A-high.

What's more, you're not going to get paid off when you hit an A or a K in most situations. The exception is where he hits the A or K also, but with a lower kicker, and that's a VERY long shot. (Odds of him also having an A or K, less odds of hitting whichever he has, less odds that he doesn't also hit his kicker for two pair.)

So you have a hand that is HUGELY unlikely to score you a huge payoff vs. the BB unless you get all of his chips in pre-flop and your AK holds up. So move-in pre-flop, force him to either fold and give you the blinds and antes (not a bad pot), or chase down your AK (and if he does, oh well).

Cris

[Piiop]

I don't really see how this hand was played wrong.

You made a good read that the BB would sense weakness in you only completing and and set you in, which is what you wanted.

The big thing to consider is if the BB would have called your all in. If you had gone all-in first, do you think he would put you on a steal? Had you been stealing/attempting to steal a lot? The BB only had a few more chips than you, so this pot is very valuable to him also, so would he call you with a marginal hand?. If he put you on a steal, I think it's very likely he would have called the all-in.

I think you played the hand well. You had a read on the BB and it was correct. You put all your chips in PF with AKs and thats exactly what you want. You lost the hand, but I'm not sure a whole lot could be done about it.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

You have two choices here. You can raise all-in and hopefully win 11K with a 100% edge, or you can pull this trap and play for 65K with a 33% edge. It sounds like the riskier play is better. But ...

What about those times he has crap like 83o? Is he going to raise you all-in preflop, or is he just going to take the free flop? And what are you going to do in these spots when the flop comes J83? You'll have no clue if you're ahead or behind, so you'll be betting and winning when he misses these raggedy flops, but betting into a better hand when he hits. That is, you'll win no more chips than if you stole preflop when he misses, but maybe go broke when he hits, all because you gave him a free flop.

When you take this into account, I think you should just raise preflop. If he folds, show your AKs, and reinforce your tight image so you can steal more successfully next time you raise preflop.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Ignatius]

AK is a strong hand, not because it's such a huge favorite over a random hand (88 does better vs. random than AKs), but because it's very unlikely to be dominated. So the correct way to play it, it to avoid a confrontation and trying to win w/o a showdown.
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look to trap him with a good chance to win about 37K more if he put a move on me.
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You only get T25680 more and you're laying him 8:5 odds, so he wouldn't make much of a mistake by calling your all-in or moving all-in himself, anyway (EV = -T3282, so calling costs him only the value of a SB). However, this is only true if the money goes all-in preflop. If you flat call and he checks behind you, he will lose less, not more - in fact, depending on his (and your) post flop play, he is certainly going to break even on the hand (as he would by folding preflop) but usually will win considerably more as he has position.
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As a typical sezenario, assume, you always move in on the flop and he only calls with a pair. He will outflop you 1/4 of the times, but pay you off less than 1/12 of the times. So 2/3 of the times, you get as much as you would have got by moving in and him folding. But from the remaining 1/3, you will pay him off three times as often as he will pay off you. Even if you typically have a 1:3 chance in sucking out on him if behind, instead of him losing about 1 SB (provided he calls), he will win about 1 SB on this hand and your play has cost you about 1 BB.

[Bozeman]

Greg as usual has pointed out the crucial points.

1) It is not bad to pick up the blinds. In terms of chip EV, you gain from your play against those hands he will go allin with that he would have folded AND you are 59% or better to beat. Since you are 60-40 at least against all non-pairs, this looks decent. However,

2)You seriously lose against hands that check and fold if they miss. Suppose he has two offsuit undercards, if he will only put more chips in the pot if he hits (bad for you), but will always put them in if he hits (good for you), your EV drops from 11K to 7.5K. Just a few hands he'd play like this make up for any gains in part 1.

3)Survival (lower variance) has value here.

It would be a good play if the BB would push with any two cards after you limp.

Craig

[jaybee_70]

Your read was right on. That is probably the most encouraging thing about the play. It sounds like you have a good handle on him, but wait until you have a decent pocket pair to make the play. Steal the blinds here and look for a better opportunity to execute your play on this guy.

Joe

[Cornbread Maxwell]

Thanks for the comments everyone.

I agree that if he checks behind me, I have made an egregious mistake, and if he raises me allin, it still isn't as good as if I had raised him all in. I see that now! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Copernicus]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't really see how this hand was played wrong.

You made a good read that the BB would sense weakness in you only completing and and set you in, which is what you wanted.

The big thing to consider is if the BB would have called your all in. If you had gone all-in first, do you think he would put you on a steal? Had you been stealing/attempting to steal a lot? The BB only had a few more chips than you, so this pot is very valuable to him also, so would he call you with a marginal hand?. If he put you on a steal, I think it's very likely he would have called the all-in.

I think you played the hand well. You had a read on the BB and it was correct. You put all your chips in PF with AKs and thats exactly what you want. You lost the hand, but I'm not sure a whole lot could be done about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Getting all of your chips in is not necessarily what you want, even when you are the favorite. When you have virtually 100% chance of taking the hand down by going in up front and increasing your stack (and approximately your tournament equity) by a third, and you decide to "Sucker" the other guy in, you are putting yourself at risk of losing 100% of your tournament equity.

In hindsight with BB only having QJ it may well have been the better play (depending on the payout structure, quality of other players, etc), but "getting it all in" is not the correct criteria to evaluate it by.