Value bet?

[BottlesOf]

Crap, I think I chickened out again. Please critique this hand. I just sat at the table I have no reads.

Party Poker 2/4 (10 handed)
Hero has J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and is UTG

Hero raises, EP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO(poster) calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls

Flop(12 SB): 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif

SB bets, BB calls, Hero raises, EP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds, SB 3-bets, BB folds, Hero caps, EP2 calls, MP3 calls, SB calls

Turn(14 1/2 BB): 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

SB checks, Hero bets, EP2 folds, MP3 folds, SB calls

River(16 1/2 BB): 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif

SB checks, Hero checks

[astroglide]

it's pretty safe to flip a coin on this one. not a signifigant mistake if it is one at all, and i would simply do what felt right if i were in the situation.

having said that, i would have limped preflop since there was a poster. i would rather invite the whole table when i have jacks instead of 4 people.

[Brian]

Hi Astroglide and Bottles,

First let me say that I completely disagree with Astro's advice to limp pre-Flop. JJ should be raised when first in from any position, including UTG. It is the 4th or 5th best hand in Hold'em. If you aren't raising this UTG, you are a weak player IMO. I would rather have 4 people in the pot who paid 2 bets each than 8 people in the pot who paid 1 bet each. I really don't understand your logic at all. Why are you letting people get in cheap??? And how does the poster affect this exactly?

Bottles, this is a pretty safe value bet on the River I think. The SB probably has a 7 and will call you, or maybe a smaller overpair. I seriously doubt he has the 6. I don't think it is a coin flip at all.

-Brian

[MzLisa]

Hi there,

I agree with the last poser, i would always raise pre flop with the Jacks, to get those people who have that lone king queen or ace out of the game. Most people wont fold thier lone ace but id take my chances. i would feel a little safer betting with that flop knowing that callers who call my raise probably have a middle pair, or kq off or k10, QJ maybe or something like that, they are most def. are not calling with a 2-3 or 4-5. Yes you will lose some times to the player that calls raises cold with k little x, but you just be sure to make a mental note the next time you raise with AK, that they have crap.

Thats why im in favor of the raise.

[astroglide]

[ QUOTE ]
And how does the poster affect this exactly?

[/ QUOTE ]
if you don't understand this, you are in no position to decide what is or isn't weak poker.
[ QUOTE ]
I would rather have 4 people in the pot who paid 2 bets each than 8 people in the pot who paid 1 bet each.

[/ QUOTE ]
the odds to flop a set are 8.5:1. the odds of getting called preflop by people holding aces, kings, and queens in a low limit game are high (and signifigantly increased with the presence of a poster). since i don't prefer to play middle pair out of position, i would limp here.

if there wasn't a poster and (judging from observation) i rated to sufficiently clear the field, i would raise utg. i would also raise tens utg under those conditions. barring that, AQo and QQ would be my minimum utg raising standards.

this is covered in depth by most poker texts.

[Brian]

Hi Astroglide,

If anything, there being a poster would make me want to raise more than it would make me want to limp so that he doesn't get a free ride to the Flop.

The odds to Flop a set are 7.5:1. However, the value of JJ is not in flopping a set alone. JJ wins unimproved often. The fact that you are advocating limping IMO means you should not be giving people advice on this forum, rather seeking it. Not to be rude, but I find it surprising that after 1200 posts you do not raise JJ UTG. I'll start a poll for this thread to see who elses raises it in this situation.

-Brian

[Brian]

Did the fact that theres a poster in the CO change your play at all? If so, include your reasons in response to this thread.

-Brian

[GuyOnTilt]

the odds to flop a set are 8.5:1.

No, they aren't.

the odds of getting called preflop by people holding aces, kings, and queens in a low limit game are high (and signifigantly increased with the presence of a poster).

Yes, they are...if you don't raise.

since i don't prefer to play middle pair out of position, i would limp here.

What makes you think JJ would be middle pair? If one of each overcard is in your opponents' hands (that would be the only way they really hurt you by flopping), then that leaves 9 cards which can hurt you on the flop. One or more of those nine will only appear on the flop ~48% of the time, and you'll flop a set ~8.6% of those times. So you'll have an overpair or better over half of the time that your opponents hold 3 overcards collectively. If they hold more or less, then your odds are better, since less would mean there's one less overcard that can hurt you, and more would mean the chances of one flopping are less.

It all adds up to JJ being a great hand to raise with PF.

GoT

[BottlesOf]

I very much appreciate all the responses to my post. However, I would like to re-direct any future poster's attention to the river and away from the initial play.

[icepoker]

Yes, bet the river every time and expect to be shown K7s or whatever. Possible the guy was on a flush draw and hopefully he picked up a small pair and is tempted to call the river. Anyway, bet for sure, call a raise. Definitely a +ev play. btw you played it perfectly up to the river imo.

[GuyOnTilt]

I very much appreciate all the responses to my post. However, I would like to re-direct any future poster's attention to the river and away from the initial play.

Oh. Well in that case, bet the river for value. If you're c/r'ed, I would call if I've been folding to raises on the turn and river lately, and fold if I've been calling people down lately.

GoT

[Stu Pidasso]

[ QUOTE ]
JJ should be raised when first in from any position, including UTG. It is the 4th or 5th best hand in Hold'em.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a good advice, especially to players who are new to Hold-em.

[ QUOTE ]
If you aren't raising this UTG, you are a weak player IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does that mean Sklansky and Malmuth are weak players? They advocate limping with JJ from early position in a loose game(HFAP21 pg 25).

Stu

[chesspain]

Did SB have 75? His checkraise on the flop makes it look like he may have flopped two pair, but his checkcall on the turn makes it look like he's scared he's now up against a high PP who now has the better two-pair. If all this is true, opponent will make the crying call on the river even though he's beat.

[BottlesOf]

Unfortunately i lost the hand history, but I believe this is what he had.