changeup

[rkiray]

Paradise 5/10

This was a decent table when I sat down. But as all too often happens on-line, the 5 worst players leave and are replaced with tight, decent regulars. In less than 15 minutes went from 38% seeing flop to 24%. Seven of my opponests are known regulars who are all pretty good. I have between 426 to 1857 hands on each of them. Other two are unknown. I have my name on a 3/6 and a 2/4 waiting list so I can change tables. Anyone besides me think Paradise has been ridiculous tight the last few days?

I'm EP2 with 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

UTG and UTG + 1 limp, since most of these guys are decent regulars I assume many of them will keep good notes or use a database. So I decide to add varity to my game by raising here. Everyone folds except the limpers who call.

Flop : 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

check, check, I bet, fold, call

Turn : 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
check, bet, call

River : 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif

checked through.

I checked because I may be beat, if I'm ahead he may not call, but mainly because I wanted to show the table what I raised with. Good or bad play?









I won, other guy had AJo

[GuyOnTilt]

Unclick the auto-muck button and bet. If he folds, show. If he calls, you're going to win vs. a medium pocket pair less than 8's or ace high. What kind of hand could your solid opponent hold here that beats you?? You definitely missed a value bet.

GoT

[Schneids]

Yeah, the board making two pair like that with 2's and 3's, that should be a definite value bet as an ace is going to almost always call there IMO.

[rkiray]

If I was the other guy and all I had was an A I would definitely fold. I raised preflop from early position, and bet each street. The best he can probably do is split the pot, and many times he would lose to a pocket pair.

[lil']

I don't know what your opponent has, but it's not as good as what you have. Bet the river.

[rkiray]

Actually I mentioned he had AJo but it was at the very botton of the first post. I really wanted everyone to see what I raised with. Thought that was worth more than the 1 BB max profit (probably would not have gotten any profit). But GOT came up with the best idea. I didn't think of that.

[Schneids]

I think most players would call here if they know you to be a decent player, since they should also know you'd make that preflop raise with non-paired (approximiately only) AK, AQ, or KQs, which is 28 possible holdings right there you could have and play the same way (12 possible AK and AQ, 4 possible KQs, when eliminating one ace since in this case the guy has AJ)). Versus, we'll just say they also think you'll also raise (approximately only) 99-AA in that spot. 36 possible pocket pairs (6 of each for all other than AA and JJ, 3 of each for those two).

At this point, if you were to bet the river there is 67 in the pot (when taking three out for rake).

With the given assumptions, if he calls here, the following occurs:

Chopped pot: (24/64)*(57/2) = +10.6875
They win pot outright: (4/64)*(67) = +4.1875
They lose pot to you: (36/64)*(-10)= -5.625
10.6875 + 4.1875 - 5.625 = +9.25, making this a positive EV call for them on the river if they are approximately right about what hands you would most typically raise with PF in that spot (yes the hands I've named may not be totally accurate but this picture shows just how easy of a river call it should be for the ace high hand, if he knows you to be a decent player that will raise more than just near-nuts PF...furthermore, as your raising standards decrease even more, the easier his call becomes).

All of this points towards a river value bet. Don't be afraid of a pocket pair. You say he's a decent player, which means he himself would have raised any mid-high range pocket pair PF if the table is as tight as described. He'll call because it's +EV for him, and you'll get an extra BB out of it.

EDIT: corrected stupid mistake in EV calculations. Had pot out of 67 in the chopped scenario but really it should have been 57 since you'd both take your river bets back.

[rkiray]

I was confident I was ahead. I just really wanted to show people my hand. I didn't realize there was a way for me to get around the other guy folding problem.

[Schneids]

It's all good.

If that was your problem then checking was fine, since yes it's a good thing to be able to show you raise more than AA-JJ and AK preflop.

I sometimes get carried away. Please forgive me and my mundane math. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Bob T.]

I would make the value bet here, if he folds, fine. I don't show, and maybe make another play later on. One thing about an entire table of tight players, is that they might as a group play too tight, and I want to be able to take advantage of that as much as possible. I don't like the idea of giving up information, unless I get paid for it.

If he calls, fine then he sees my hand. At least I get one more big bet.

[rkiray]

Actually I thought you made an excellent post. Showed that my instinct was wrong. I would not have called if I was the other guy.