huge
11-22-2003, 08:30 PM
Yep, this is my first post here. I couldn't find a thread already discussing this - if there is one, point me to it.
I play in a lot of multi-table satellites on UB, Stars, and Party, usually NL Hold'Em. I do pretty well at placing high enough to get a seat in the next tourney, but I occasionally run into the agonizing position of being in good chip position but then self-destructing and busting out when I probably should have just folded every hand and coasted into the prize. Usually this is due to someone sucking out on me with a weaker hand ... sometimes it's because I run into AA preflop. So here's my question:
How do I decide when my chip position is good enough to just fold every hand, pay the blinds, and try to coast in?
I realize this is a complicated question and that there's no simple formula. I'll list the factors I consider, and then maybe people can give me other things to add to my list or another angle to take on the question.
1. (Number of people who need to bust out in order for everyone remaining to "win") vs (number of people who would have to pass me in order for me to lose). This generates an obvious answer at the extremes - if one person needs to bust out, and I'm 4th out of 15 remaining players, I can be confident that I can just fold and wait ... if 10 people need to bust out, and I'm in 8th place out of 18 players, then I can't just coast.
2. How many of the players below me are in serious trouble? If several players are so low on chips that they will have trouble surviving the blinds then that sort of shifts the balance I come up with in (1) above.
3. Are the big stacks playing stupidly? Often in the $3 UB satellites and sometimes at Party and Stars as well, people with big stacks who could easily just coast in to the prize pool keep gambling, throwing all their chips in with top pair or a flush draw. They even comment on this - "I know I could just fold my way into the prize, but I just can't fold pocket Tens". If I'm in 5th place, but the people above me are still flinging chips around, then I figure I'm virtually in 4th, because one of them is bound to screw up and drop below me.
4. Obviously - how big are the blinds relative to my stack? I guess I could have put this first, because if the blinds are very big, then the question gets simpler - I either HAVE to gamble because I'm in danger of blinding out, or I HAVE to coast because someone else is in even worse danger. (I guess there's a middle ground, but it usually seems like decisions are pretty straightforward here)
I think I generally look at factor number 1 and think that if that balance is in my favor, then I can probably coast (and then sometimes I just get stupid and play anyway, but that's a whole other topic for me and my shrink). Earlier today I was playing in a $3 sat at UB, I was in 10th with 28 players left and the top 21 getting the prize, so 7 people have to bust out before 12 people pass me ... I took a knee and finished in 14th.
Anything else I should be thinking about? Anything wrong with the way I'm already approaching this? Any other "rules-of-thumb" that people use to decide when they can start coasting?
thanks
-Laurence
I play in a lot of multi-table satellites on UB, Stars, and Party, usually NL Hold'Em. I do pretty well at placing high enough to get a seat in the next tourney, but I occasionally run into the agonizing position of being in good chip position but then self-destructing and busting out when I probably should have just folded every hand and coasted into the prize. Usually this is due to someone sucking out on me with a weaker hand ... sometimes it's because I run into AA preflop. So here's my question:
How do I decide when my chip position is good enough to just fold every hand, pay the blinds, and try to coast in?
I realize this is a complicated question and that there's no simple formula. I'll list the factors I consider, and then maybe people can give me other things to add to my list or another angle to take on the question.
1. (Number of people who need to bust out in order for everyone remaining to "win") vs (number of people who would have to pass me in order for me to lose). This generates an obvious answer at the extremes - if one person needs to bust out, and I'm 4th out of 15 remaining players, I can be confident that I can just fold and wait ... if 10 people need to bust out, and I'm in 8th place out of 18 players, then I can't just coast.
2. How many of the players below me are in serious trouble? If several players are so low on chips that they will have trouble surviving the blinds then that sort of shifts the balance I come up with in (1) above.
3. Are the big stacks playing stupidly? Often in the $3 UB satellites and sometimes at Party and Stars as well, people with big stacks who could easily just coast in to the prize pool keep gambling, throwing all their chips in with top pair or a flush draw. They even comment on this - "I know I could just fold my way into the prize, but I just can't fold pocket Tens". If I'm in 5th place, but the people above me are still flinging chips around, then I figure I'm virtually in 4th, because one of them is bound to screw up and drop below me.
4. Obviously - how big are the blinds relative to my stack? I guess I could have put this first, because if the blinds are very big, then the question gets simpler - I either HAVE to gamble because I'm in danger of blinding out, or I HAVE to coast because someone else is in even worse danger. (I guess there's a middle ground, but it usually seems like decisions are pretty straightforward here)
I think I generally look at factor number 1 and think that if that balance is in my favor, then I can probably coast (and then sometimes I just get stupid and play anyway, but that's a whole other topic for me and my shrink). Earlier today I was playing in a $3 sat at UB, I was in 10th with 28 players left and the top 21 getting the prize, so 7 people have to bust out before 12 people pass me ... I took a knee and finished in 14th.
Anything else I should be thinking about? Anything wrong with the way I'm already approaching this? Any other "rules-of-thumb" that people use to decide when they can start coasting?
thanks
-Laurence