interesting value bet situation 20-40, you make the call!

[mike l.]

i have 44 in the bb, 20-40 and we are 5 handed. utg limps, button limps, sb calls, i check.

the flop is 932 rainbow. sb checks, i bet, others fold, and sb calls.

the turn is K. sb checks, i bet, sb calls.

the river is 5. sb checks, what's my play?

the sb is a somewhat weak somewhat tight predictable older gent. he probably wouldnt have gotten to the river w/ A4 or 64, but if he had he would bet it on the river, not go for a c/r. so a straight is out of the question. if he had a set he would have checkraised the turn or shown strength somewhere else in the hand. so the way i see it he can have: A2, A3, 44, 66, 77, 88, or a weak 9 like 96s. if he had 55 he would be the river. but he may have bet the flop w/ the 66 and better. there is almost no chance he has a K because he would have bet the turn with that i think. will he fold a better hand if i bet? it's hard to imagine that happening as he once he calls when that turn scare card hits, he looks like he's pretty ready to call down on the non draw-friendly board given he's a non-gutshot sort of guy. so i should only bet the river if i want to get paid off. do i want to get paid off?

[Clarkmeister]

The only better hand he would fold, given that he got this far, is specifically 45s that flopped open ended and rivered a pair. More likely is some sort of 9 that went into check-call mode once it got headsup and a king came on the turn.

[mike l.]

"specifically 45s"

i missed that one! thanks clark!

[bobgreen]

I would predict that if you check 100 times, you would end up with more chips than if you bet 100 times.

But, when you bet the river and he folds you gain dominance, your confidence and their fear, that may pay off later. When you bet and he calls and loses, you gain even more dominance and then some loose calls in the future.

When he calls and wins, you lose a little dominance but still gain the future loose calls.

So if they often know when you have the goods and make good laydowns, bet your 44. If you've got em all intimidated already, then check for value.

[Rick Nebiolo]

Mike,

On the flop I'd want one less opponent but I'm an old white guy. If the flop is two tone definitely check.

When you clear out all but one opponent the turn is an easy bet. The type you describe will make his move on the turn if he has something, otherwise he was just taking one off and will fold to a big bet.

On the river I don't see any value in betting (except getting a possible 54 to fold). Any other made hand that called the turn will call the river. Somewhat tight older gents don't call with ace high and will call with a better pair (if they called the turn).

~ Rick

[Tommy Angelo]

[ QUOTE ]
"specifically 45s"

i missed that one! thanks clark!


[/ QUOTE ]

Funny. That's the only hand that came immediately to mind as a hand that would call and beat me. I'd bet.


Tommy

[mike l.]

first off there's no way in the world he folds 54 here on the river heads up against me. people dont fold pairs against me. ever.

as it was i checked behind and he had A3s and i felt dumb for not betting. whatever.