Turn Raise

[gavrilo]

BB is a good player, tight aggressive.
Button is decent, but has been losing.

Party Poker 3/6 (8 handed)
Hero has A/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and is UTG

Hero raises, Button calls, SB folds, BB 3-bets, Hero calls, Button calls

Flop(9 1/3 SB): T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif

BB bets, Hero calls, Button calls

Turn(6 1/6 BB): 7/images/graemlins/club.gif

BB bets, Hero raises, Button calls, BB calls

River(12 1/6 BB): Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif

BB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, BB calls

After the hand, Button said blah blah blah raising on Gutshot Draw in chat. When BB 3-bet preflop. He has either AA,KK,QQ,AK nothing else. I liked my play.
Comments?

[ThingDo]

If he only 3-bets with AA QQ and KK he isn't going to fold to the turn raise.

[crockpot]

i don't like it. you make money from opponents in these games by getting them to call with worse hands, not getting them to try to lay down big hands. if you read him for something big, why try to make him lay it down? plus there is still the button player to worry about, and the straight and flush draws that the button could have called the flop with have just hit.

[gavrilo]

I fully expected the BB to call my turn raise, it's the Button who I didn't want to call. Say he has KJ or AT and the BB has QQ, that way I clear up my Ace and King as outs coupled along with another club or a Queen.

[ThingDo]

ahhhh, sorry


For some reason I thought it was HU. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[gavrilo]

My goal in raising wasn't to try and make the BB lay down a big hand, I didn't want the button in.

[gavrilo]

Button would have raised the flop if he had clubs.

[jt1]

For what it's worth I like it. However, you could be misjudging the button. 1) he may not be good enough to try for a free card or 2) he may have figured that if he did try for a free card that BB would have only raised him anyway, and so he just checks.

[bdk3clash]

Hmm. An interesting one.

As far as I can tell, you theoretically have between 12 and 17 outs.

You've got 9 all-but definite outs to the nut flush (I'm ignoring straight-flush possibilities for the sake of simplicity), and 3 outs to your Broadway gutshot (not re-counting the Q /images/graemlins/club.gif.) So at the least, you have 12 solid outs.

The remaining "outs"--the three Aces and two Kings (not counting the K /images/graemlins/club.gif)--may or may not be valid, as rivering a K or and A may or may not help you.

You say he would 3-bet w/ AA, KK, QQ, and AK, nothing else. Given that you have A /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, there are 21 hands that he could be holding:

-3 AA hands
-3 KK hands
-6 QQ hands
-9 AK hands

So of the 5 ambiguous outs, the time you will be good are some part of 21.

-For the 3 AA hands, you are drawing dead.
-For the 3 KK hands, you have 3 outs.
-For the 6 QQ hands, you have 5 outs.
-For the 9 AK hands, you split the pot, so let's assume you have 2.5 outs.

Weighing these out, on average you have just under 3 outs, for a total of 15 outs. This number is most likely optimistic, if anything, because the button may be tainting your overcard outs.

Now, given that you have 15 outs going into the river, is it right to raise immeditely for value? I think not. Although you have a 3 to 1 chance of making your hand, there is a chance that the button will fold, and/or that the SB might reraise. Given these factors, it doesn't seem right to me to raise immediately for value.

But what about the chance of winning the pot right then, or on the river? Given my experience at low limit tables, the SB is much more likely to call your raise and call you down on the river than to fold. Given the size of the pot, I don't blame him.

In summary, I think you're being results-oriented, and I don't think the turn raise was a good one. Yes, you got an extra bet out of it, but had you missed on the river you would have cost yourself and extra bet.

Corrections to my admittedly fuzzy math/reasoning will be greatly appreciated.

[crockpot]

oh, so you wanted to get it heads-up with a hand better than yours. my bad.

[MortalNuts]

I like it given that you hold the A /images/graemlins/club.gif, but wouldn't like it if any of the following were true: a) You don't have the A /images/graemlins/club.gif , b) You think button would *not* have raised the flop with clubs, or c) You don't think there's any chance you'll get button to fold if he has something like ATs or AJs.

Just my 2 counterfeit cents, though. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Without the nut flush draw, you are facing some awfully unclean A and K outs, plus a chance you're drawing dead.

[gavrilo]

I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not.. but
I was willing at the time to put in an extra bet to try and get it headsup if it might possibly clean up some of my outs.

[Ulysses]

Bad turn raise. There are 5 possible cards that could hit on the river where you potentially benefit from doing this. So, you're investing an extra 1BB into a 6BB pot for this specific scenario:

a) An 8:1 shot hits
b) Button had a very specific hand (like KT) that will call a bet, fold to a raise, and beat you if an Ace or King falls

The pot is not nearly big enough for you to invest an extra bet on that parlay.

Also consider that either button or UTG might 3-bet here.

Even if an Ace or King hits, it might give UTG a set. A real possibility given the range of hands you put him on.

[gavrilo]

Majority says bad turn raise and I can see why.
Button had Black Nines for the turned Straight.
BB had AK with the King of clubs so I ended up chopping with him.

[me454555]

BB 3-bet preflop, and then bet into you on the flop. He's tight aggressive, so you can reasonably put him no 1 of 5 hands (AA, KK, QQ, AK, with JJ being an outside possibility) So heres what your up against.

BB has AA, your drawing near dead
BB has KK, you have 3 outs
BB has AK, your going to chop
BB has QQ and you have 6 outs
BB has JJ and your almost drwaing dead.

I just don't think this hand is a good one to play past the flop.