SnG's Hourly Rate and other Newbie Questions...

[Ray Of Light]

How do I work out an hourly rate expectation for SnG's?

I have read people calculations elsewhere, but they are a bit vague as to what mathematical data I should be using./images/graemlins/confused.gif So could someone please outline the basic formula that they use to calculate their own hourly rate?

Also, does anyone make a good second income solely playing SnG's?

And would you say that the variance in SnG's is usually greater than in ring games? In ring games, provided that you are a winning player, your bankroll can swing by as much as 300BB. Can I expect a big swing such as this to happen to my SnG bankroll? And how large should my SnG bankroll be? About 50 buyins? or more?

I do much better in SnG's compared to ring games as I cash out in over 50% of SnG's that I enter. So I am looking to focus my game on tournament play rather than ring game play for the time being.

[Bozeman]

1) Just multiply your percentage of 1st's,2nd's, 3rd's (4th if you play 2tablers) by the appropriate prize and subtract off 1*buyin. Divide by the average time per tourney, probably about 40 minutes. However, to have good statistical estimates of these numbers you need to have played at least 300.

2) Variance in SNG's will usually be smaller than in ring games, unless you can play a lot of soft ring games at a time. Typically SD/EV (per tourney) <~ 4 for a good player.

3) If you finish in the money better than 50% of the time, for 5% risk of ruin, you need about 13 buyins. For 1%, 20 buyins. (BruceZ's bankroll formula (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=207170&page=&view=&sb =5&o=&vc=1))

Craig

[JDO]

For your first question, you can get some pretty valuable stats on your game if you keep a log at pokercharts.com. It's free and they have some pretty nice graphing options if you are visual person.

[Homer]

Craig, I just started playing in SNG's. I read over the archives prior to playing, and just wanted to thank you, as a lot of your posts have been of great help to me.

-- Homer

[Copernicus]

If you are a better than 50% ITM player I dont think you need quite those BRs, as long as you are willing to cut back a buy-in level after a few consecutive losses. You can build your roll up pretty quickly at the lower limit and pursue the higher ones again. If you consistently find yourself bouncing between levels, then you arent ready for the higher level.

[CrisBrown]

Hi Ray,

I compute hourly expectation essentially as Bozeman does, although I simply assume an even distribution over the prize payouts. E.g.: I play two-table SNGs at PokerStars, which play four places, so I assume my money finishes will be about 25% 1st, 25% 2nd, etc. (Actually I do better than that, but that's what I use for estimates.)

So, to compute the average profit per win, simply average the prize payouts, minus the buy-in. In a $33 SNG the prizes are $216 for 1st, $162 for 2nd, $108 for 3rd, and $54 for 4th. That averages to $135, minus the $33 buy-in, is an average $102 per money finish.

To compute your hourly expectation, use the formula:

((%wins * avg.profit) - (%losses * buyin)) / avg.time

I estimate an average time of 90 mins for two-table SNGs, although I suspect it's a bit less than that.

So, for example, if you finish in the money 50% of the time at $33 SNGs, your estimated hourly expectation is:

((.5 * $102) - (.5 * $33))/1.5hr = $26.33/hr

As for bankroll, I recommend a 15/20/40 system. That is, you want 20 buy-ins when you choose a stake. If you drop below 15 buy-ins, drop in stakes (e.g.: from $33 to $22 or even $11) until you build your bankroll back up to 20 buy-ins. If you get up to 40 buy-ins, withdraw half and leave 20 buy-ins in your bankroll. And as Copernicus says, if you find yourself consistently having to drop a stake, you should probably stay at the lower stake for awhile and work on your game.

Hope this helps,

Cris

[Ray Of Light]

Thanks everybody for your replies!

In single table SnG's, I tend to have an uneven spread of 5% 1st place , 30% 2nd place and 65% 3rd place finishes (this is an approximate number, and I will be keeping sharper records of my place finishes in the future).

But does anyone know how I can go about improving my heads up play? I used to become impatient as soon as I reached the money (note the large number of 3rd place finishes /images/graemlins/blush.gif), but now I realise that patience is even more important in the latter stages than at the start.

But how else can I improve my heads up and/or very shorthanded game skills? I've tried reading through the forums, and I have a couple of poker books (David Sklansky's Advanced Tournament book and Lee Jones Low Limit book), but I haven't found anything yet that covers heads up play in detail. Is it simply that heads-up game play is a fine art that can't be taught? (especially since pot odds go out the window at this stage and it is all about 'playing the player')...