Help me out on this JJ hand

[SinCityGuy]

I had just started a 10/20 session at the Mirage, with only a couple of familiar players. I was not familiar with the play of the four opponents in this particular hand.

From UTG +3 I was dealt J /images/graemlins/club.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif

UTG limps, next two fold, I raise, fold, call, fold, fold, SB call, BB call, UTG call. Five to the flop for 10 small bets.

Flop: 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Checked to me, I bet, UTG + 6 calls, SB folds, BB calls, UTG checkraises.

Do you call or reraise here?

[PokerPrince]

I would more than likely call. If the turn card is favourable I would raise then. Although there are quite a few cards that you would really prefer not to see.

PokerPrince

[nykenny]

i would raise here to tell BB to get out of the pot. unless BB is the type who doesn't get out of the pot. then i wait till turn to pop on a innocent card.

[rigoletto]

Reraise, you want to get UTG+6 and BB out of there. If you had no players behind you, you could wait and raise the turn.

[Gabe]

You have to raise. If you can't get the callers out. the only cards you'll want to see are a 9 or aT.

[PokerPrince]

Ya, Gabe makes a good point, I change my mind. Raise that flop and put on the pressure right then and there.

PokerPrince

[Coilean]

I would reraise the flop. The pot is getting big, but it's not so huge that these players might not fold 5 outers (or even 7-outers like A7) for a reraise. If you can get players to fold before the turn, that has a lot more value than getting them out after the turn, which essentially only gains you their flop calls if they miss while giving them a chance to win your entire pot.

As an example, consider the following: You reraise this flop and the guys behind fold with an average of 8 outs between them. There were 15 bets in the pot before you reraised, so you saved 8/47(15SB) = 2.55SB by knocking these guys out. If you had let them see the turn for just 1SB more, you would only win 39/47(1SB) = 0.82SB extra from their calls (you only count 1SB more here because you would have gotten 1SB more from UTG's call if you reraised), while losing 2.55SB (plus whatever you might pay them off) when they hit. And if these guys call the reraise anyway, at least they are putting 4SB more in the pot, adding 39/47(4SB) = 3.32SB to your EV to compensate for the 2.55SB+payoffs that you lose. These figures are all obviously skewed a bit high since I don't account for UTG's hand, but this should paint the picture clearly enough anyway.

The wait until the turn to knock them out ploy is best reserved for cases where the pot has gotten so big that your opponents are pretty sure to (correctly) call a flop reraise with 4-5 outers anyway, which means they will also be (correctly) calling a turn bet, so you are hoping to instead at least create an opportunity for them to either make a calling error or fold sometime before the river.

[andyfox]

An 8 doesn't hurt either (nor a jack), but your point is a good one: since there are so many potential ugly cards that can come on the turn, better to try to eliminate as many as possible right now than wait for the turn. There'd be a better argument for waiting for the turn is poster had pocket Kings or Aces.

[ML4L]

Hey SinCityGuy,

I would wait until the turn to re-raise. I don't think either caller is folding to your three-bet here. Maybe one of them. Callers like to call. They don't do math in their head to figure out whether or not it's correct.

If you raise now, they are making a mistake on the flop (depending on their holding), but would probably be correct to call your turn bet if it gets checked to you and they called the flop. If you wait, they might be correct now (depending on their holding), but they will likely be VERY incorrect to call a turn bet. The pot is already large. The way to win it is to wait. If you raise now, it's going multi-way to the river.

All dissention is welcome.

ML4L

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
If you had no players behind you, you could wait and raise the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

right on! i learned this the hard way. after many times i could have saved myself the pot, i no longer make this mistake.

[nykenny]

it might be too late on the turn to save yourself the pot.

[Philuva]

[ QUOTE ]
There'd be a better argument for waiting for the turn if poster had pocket Kings or Aces.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you see why?

[Gabe]

Yeah, I was going to include the 8's but I left them out because it was more dramatic and the 8 does make a straight, though an improbable one.

[andyfox]

Not important, but the 8 doesn't make a straight that someone doesn't already have.

[Coilean]

ML4L,

I don't know that these guys will call a flop reraise as often as you think. For a lot of players calling a single flop bet from the preflop raiser is pretty automatic with a lot of holdings because they put him on AK. After it goes 3 bets, they are often willing to fold the crapola they made the first call with, even if it might now be a correct call with a 5-out hand. As you said, a lot of them don't do math, so they're not thinking "Oh, the pot's big enough that I should call the reraise with my probable 5 outs to this guy's aces", they're more likely to think "Crap, I guess he really has something, and I don't want to pay 2 bets to see the turn with a measly [second pair, gutshot+overcards, whatever]."

Even if they call the reraise, this isn't a disaster as they are at least paying a premium for their draw. And being able to raise a turn bet here is far from automatic when UTG might decide not to bet a lot of turn cards: consider just how many scare cards there are for you (as many others have already pointed out), and you want him to continue betting with an even worse hand when you raise the turn, right? If he's just check raising a top pair or some pair+draw hand (say, 65 or 76) that doesn't mind getting a lot of money in on the flop against a weak seeming field, he might be willing to check a lot of turn cards (or you might face an unpleasant mystery bet from one of the limpers), which leaves you with even less leverage than you had on the flop.

[andyfox]

A turn bet from the flop aggressor is generally less likely when the flop is all small cards because the turn card is usually an overcard (to the flop).

[Tommy Angelo]

Besides the reasons given already, there's one more big one behind why I would reraise on the flop 100%. That's because, given that the limper limped utg btf, and then checkraised the flop, I'd assume he has 33, 44, 55, 66, 77, or maybe 88. Some of those hands I have beat on the flop, and some I don't, and some of them I can beat now, but maybe not later. My reraise on the flop, compared to just calling, will allow the turn betting to give me the information I need in order to maximize the likelihood of perfectly playing the river.



Tommy

[jon_1van]

Why is no one concerned about the preflop UTG limper who then check raises a low flop?

Could you imagine an overcard type hand limping UTG and then checkraising to thin the field for a 6 outer? This senario seem unlikely (big mistake to limp).

The easiest things for me to imagine is someone limping UTG with a bigger PP or perhaps limping with a small pocket pair. Both of these senarios include plays that some of us might not make but they are plays that aren't nearly as bad as limping UTG with AK (or maybe KQ) and then check-raising into a field that will almost always include at least 1 caller.

I'm still new at this and I'm 100% free of any experience above 3-6 but the UTG limp + checkraise would have me 2nd guessing. Please enlighten me.

[SinCityGuy]

I make it 3 bets, UTG + 6 calls, BB calls, UTG makes it 4 bets. /images/graemlins/shocked.gif Now, I get all sorts of visions dancing around in my head. (AA, KK, 33, 44, 66). I call, UTG +6 calls, and BB calls. Not only do I have to start worry about already being beat by UTG, but I've also got these two hangers to worry about.

The turn brings 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

The board now reads 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif

UTG bets.

My move?

[Magikist]

fold in a heartbeat

[ML4L]

At least, I think I'm sold. Basically, I put the flop-reraiser on TT-77, with a chance that he was messing around with a small pocket pair and flopped a set. So, I agree with what y'all said about not automatically assuming that the opportunity to raise the turn will present itself.

That being said, the callers did call as I figured they would, despite our hero's reraise... But, I'm trying not to be results-oriented... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

ML4L

[SinCityGuy]

[ QUOTE ]
fold in a heartbeat

[/ QUOTE ]

I folded.

UTG+6 called, BB called.

Turn was 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Checked around!!!

UTG takes it down with 99, BB shows 65s and mucks, UTG + 6 mucked without showing (probably something like A5s).

I layed down the best hand. Pardon me while I go throw up as I re-live UTG raking in the $300 pot. /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[ALL1N]

[ QUOTE ]
If you raise now, they are making a mistake on the flop (depending on their holding), but would probably be correct to call your turn bet if it gets checked to you and they called the flop. If you wait, they might be correct now (depending on their holding), but they will likely be VERY incorrect to call a turn bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with this theory is that your aim seems to be to force a mistake upon the opponent which does not necessarily lead to an increased value in the pot. When you hold the leading hand in a multiway pot, a mistaken call from an opponent will often HURT the leading hand, not benefit it (the added value to the pot goes to those who are drawing).

In addition, when you wait until the turn to raise (as you suggest), the calling opponent could indeed be correct in calling the flop and incorrect in calling the turn, as opposed to correct in both cases when you 3-bet the flop. The total EV of both plays could still be greater for him in the former, however, if his flop call is quite positive.

In summary, while the notion of forcing mistakes upon opponents to benefit oneself is often close to correct play, its premise is only true for headsup pots.

ALL1N

[rigoletto]

Why is no one concerned about the preflop UTG limper who then check raises a low flop?

Nobody said they wouldn't be worried. We're discussing the best action on the flop and Tommy's post explains very well why a 3-bet is the best action even if you're beat.

Your post implies that folding on the flop is an option, but if you fold an overpair on that flop you lay yourself open to shots in the future.

[rigoletto]

I don't think it's a bad fold: you have a very coordinated low flop with an agressor and a blind in the pot not to mention a guy behind you. I'm allways suspecious of high agression on the flop (why doesn't he go for the checkraise on the turn) and might have raised the turn if it was HU but you still have 2 people to act behind you - I would be very worried about the BB here.

[Tommy Angelo]

Hi rigolleto,


I agree with the part of your post where you agreed with me. :-)

But not this part:

"Your post implies that folding on the flop is an option, but if you fold an overpair on that flop you lay yourself open to shots in the future."

To an opponent, folding an overpair looks the same as folding a missed AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, etc. For your logic to be correct, then we should also not fold with two overcards. (I think folding two overcards to a checkraise in multi-way pots is an essential escape path.)


Tommy

[nykenny]

Rigoletto,

thank god you play in Demark. i would hate to be in the same game with you! i think you are probably one of the MOST insightful holdem players on this site. good post one after another, keep it up!

kenny

[rigoletto]

Hi Tommy

I find you very agreeable when we agree!

I guess I should have expanded a little: folding an overpair on this flop is wrong mainly because you stand a good chance of having the best hand.

To an opponent, folding an overpair looks the same as folding a missed AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, etc. For your logic to be correct, then we should also not fold with two overcards. (I think folding two overcards to a checkraise in multi-way pots is an essential escape path.)

Your point is well taken. If I on the other hand are playing an opponent who often raises preflop and then lays down on a scary board I will play this guy more agressively. The thing is; if you fold your overcards AND your overpairs in situations like this (and allways fold in other tough spots), you'll be folding a lot and quickly get a weak image.

I guess I should just have told Jon that there aren't monsters under the bed all the time.

[jon_1van]

You are correct that nobody said they weren't worried. They also didn't say they were worried (I think, I read them all yesterday).

Part of the reason I asked this question is that I am unclear of what to do with overpairs when the action indicates that there is a good chance I'm beat.

I know that ALWAYS folding overpairs is a bad strategy because you are just asking to have people bluff at you( as you pointed out). I also realize that NEVER folding overpairs is likely to cost you money as well. Currently I am playing alot closer to the "never" side. But I don't like blanket stratgies.

So I was hoping to get some light shed on that.

By the way, Tommy posted while I was writing my post. I was pleased to read his post. Particularly when it said 3-bet despite the fact that you could be beat.

[rigoletto]

i think you are probably one of the MOST insightful holdem players on this site

Thanks Kenny, praise is allways welcome /images/graemlins/blush.gif You are wrong though. I could mention at least a dozen posters with more insight than me (see Tommy's correction of me for one). And unfortunately my game is worse than my posts.

[34TheTruth34]

And unfortunately my game is worse than my posts.

And also unfortunately, my game is just as bad as my posts /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[elysium]

hi tommy,
great response.

[Ulysses]

hi elysium,
welcome back.

astroglide, Lars, elysium - who's next?

[SinCityGuy]

Thanks, Rigoletto.

You know, in retrospect, the hand was a slight bad beat for the BB. He was ahead with 6's over 5's until the board paired 3's on the river.

[JTG51]

astroglide, Lars, elysium - who's next?

Bernie. He posted in the beginners forum the other day. I can hear the jokes already...

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
And unfortunately my game is worse than my posts.

[/ QUOTE ]
don't do that. that's what i used to do and i even make excuses to myself like, "i can out play them so i play trash"

kenny

[CrackerZack]

Wow. elysium. welcome back. Now if you're responded to a homer hand as Holms or Homie, I'm gonna be truly happy for the day.