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View Full Version : Should I ever play in this tournament again?


ZeroGee
11-19-2003, 07:16 PM
Tournament at Diamond Jim's in Rosamond, CA, way out in the desert.

It's a $45 + $5 freezeout NL Hold'em tournament. Last week had 76 players, paid 13 (got their money back), with first prize being $1170. A friend had suggested I check it out, so I went up there and gave it a try. The "casino" is just a small poker room that has games that on a good night might get up to 4-8; it's essentially just a bunch of 3-6 hold'em and omaha tables, with people who actually enjoy living in the desert. There aren't any real cardplayers in the room.

Start with 6500 in chips, blinds at 25-50; sounds pretty good. Here's the catch.

To keep things simple, every 20 minutes the blinds basically double. 25-50, then 50-100, 75-150, then 100-200, 200-400, 400-800, 800-1600, 1600-3200, ... the blinds were actually 32000-64000 when the winner got crowned. 6500 in chips doesn't seem like so much when two hours into the tournament when the blinds are now 400-800. 40 minutes after that, and you're facing 1600-3200. Yeah, I know you can do the math, but the point is how much of a crapshoot is this thing?

I consider myself a good tournaemnt player -- played tournaments four times a week when I lived in London, and fared well. I am almost always in the money in home game tournaments, but haven't really played many at American casinos.

I played tightly since everyone was going nuts to start, until I finally built some chips by winning a big hand with quad 10s. At that point, the blinds were 400-800, and I started betting fairly big and built a good stack. I was the chip leader with 59,000 in chips when we were down to about 17 people. I tightened up, but raised with AQ from the button, ran into Aces in the big blind who went all in for a bit more than my raise, and I lost 20 grand... and then after picking back some money up, similar thing happened when the big blind player picked up kings. So now I go into the final table of 10 people exactly in the middle of chips.

Blinds are now 8000-16000, and there are three players with less than 16000 that have to face the blinds before it even gets to me. They all win their forced all ins, and I'm now two away from the blinds with about 50000. I pick up AJ suited, and make it 25000 to go, and everyone folds except the big blind, who calls all-in for 2,000 more. She had 8 3, hits a 3, and now I'm down to 25000. On my big blind, under the gun raised everyone else out, I call all-in with sixes, and I lose the coin flip again to AQ and am out 10th, making $25 after my few hour investment.

Is this tournament worth playing again? The players here are _soooo bad_, but I don't think it matters how well I play, I can't possibly beat that blind structure. It's goign to come down to dumb luck at the final table every time, right? I was very happy with my play all night. What would you recommend?

tpir90036
11-19-2003, 07:34 PM
since you know how to adjust to this blind structure....you should have an even bigger advantage over your opponents. granted, there is going to be a point where it turns into a coin flipping contest....but if the players are as bad as you say, it sounds like playing is +EV since will have a much better than random chance of making the money and/or winning the whole thing.

Greg (FossilMan)
11-20-2003, 11:31 AM
You will have a noticeable edge in this game. For one thing, even if it's mostly luck at the final table, you're going to get to that final table a lot more often than the average player. Based upon your post, you might be able to average a profit of $40-80 per tournament here. The real question to ask is whether the drive is worth it, especially with no big side games to fall back on when you go broke in the tournament.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Copernicus
11-20-2003, 11:53 AM
If its entertaining, sharpens your skills for other tournaments and when you do win it the desert bikers aren't going to relieve you of your winnings, why not play it. You will most often at least get your buy in back, and have a much better than random shot of winning the big one from there.

mr_jmac
11-20-2003, 11:54 AM
Hey,

The entry fee is not outrageous so that is a plus. It is NL which offers a skilled player more of an advantage than limit, another plus.

The blind structure is not that bad. The first hour and twenty minutes is not unreasonable but as you have said after that since the blinds are increasing rapidly it can tend to turn into a crapshoot at the end. There is plenty of time to gain a significant edge especially against bad players.

I have played in many local tournaments that have had structures like this. Basically, at the final table it turns into a crapshoot and at 3 or 4 handed it doesn't take long to play to a winner. My experience tells me that you can still average winning the buy-in since you will get to the final table a good percentage of the time. The tournaments I play in are limit and I have averaged winning the buy-in, so I will venture to say that a good player might average between $45 and $90 per tournament because it is no-limit.

Later,
JM

ZeroGee
11-20-2003, 09:16 PM
Basically it comes down to me attempting to decide if only winning the buy back plus a bit is worth 3 hours of my time and an hour drive each way. I guess I'll try it a few more times and then decide from there. Thanks for the advice!

ZG

curmudgeon
11-20-2003, 10:53 PM
Fogetaboutit......... playin with bad players is bad for your game! Look for better tourneys.

Lamby2
11-21-2003, 05:17 AM
Hi,

to play in this event is from what I can understand a EV+ situation for you. Your skill will take you to the final table often enough to make it worth playing.
The only two things are if the driving distance is to far and the side action is to poor if you bust out early.

If the player is really poor sitting down at a 4/8 table sidegame can generate good enough money to make the trip worth it anyway.

BR
Lamby