Is this a -EV play? How bad?

[jasonHoldEm]

I can't think straight for some reason, can someone fill me in on my EV for this play (I'm pretty sure it's negative, just wondering how much).

I finally put some money into true poker to try it out (in preparation for the zoo v. SS tournament). I'm still getting used to the site and was playing 1/2 (where the blinds are both $1).

To my right was the sort of player who always buys in for the minimium and then goes bust and rebuys for the minimium, etc. I've been at the table for about a half hour and he's busted 2 or 3 times already. (On crappy hands like J8s, A4o, etc)...ie. he's not a good player.

I'm on the button with QT /images/graemlins/heart.gif (mr. all-in is the CO).

The action is folded around to mr. all-in and he raises. At this point I should point out the blinds are weak-tightish and Mr. All-in only has $1 more in his stack. I decide to three-bet. I'm pretty sure the blinds will fold and mr all-in will call all-in. Given the fact the 1) CO is a bad player, 2) he could be steal-raising, and 3) I can see the hand to the river against one opponent I thought it would be around even money or maybe a little better, but now I'm not so sure.

Interested to hear you guys pick this one apart.

Peace,
jHE

[Aaron Lovi]

[Nottom]

If you think the blinds will fold, I'm pretty sure its +EV.

You are getting 5:3 from the pot and that is good enough against pretty much all but AA-TT, AT, KT, AQ, KQ, or QJ.

[ElSapo]

Hey Jason...

1. I'd play exactly as you did.
2. I'm not so sure it's +EV.

You have to think about the kinds of hands he'd do this with. No doubt, he's looking to get all in and end it. Generally any ace at this point, any pair and any suited king. Maybe any suited connector and any two suited.

Given this.

I think it's an easy three-bet, but as to whether or not it's +EV depends on him. Heads-up, you are not a favorite against any ace or any pair. and these two hands are the kinds that these type of players move in with.

I think it's pretty close, actually, with the blind money creating the necessary overlay. I also think it's one of those really specific and esoteric questions that is really interesting but not all that important to your bottom line.

That said, I like your play. Given your description of blinds the play is just fine.

[Robk]

To get started, let's assume the blinds always fold and you get 5:3 on your money. Assume he plays Ax, Kx down to K5, Qx down to Q8, Jx down to J7, and all pairs. Taking the weighted average, your will win on average about -- all numbers are OTOH estimates, you could do this better with two dimes, precise counting, etc--

.47(128) <-- A2-A9
.35(56) <-- AK-At
.53(54) <-- 22-99
.25(24) <-- AA-TT
.46(120) <-- Kx
.66(44) <-- Jx

.47. In this case you have a wildly profitable play.

Now let's calculate how often the blinds must fold for you to show an automatic profit. Getting 5:3, you must only win 38% of the time to show a profit. Say the chances one or more blinds play is p.

.38 < .47(1-p) <=> .81 < 1-p <=> p < .19

If we assume each blind is equally likely to fold, they must fold with probaility sqrt(.81) = 90% of time which generally won't be the case. But this was needed only for you to show an automatic profit. Factoring in the pots you win when the blinds do play on, this is a no-brainer profitable play.

[scotnt73]

id get heads up with him every chance i could get as long as you dont lower your starting standards

[jasonHoldEm]

Thanks to everyone who replied.

I agree this is one of those really interesting but not very important decisions that come up in poker. Thanks to rob for the detailed analysis...I only understood about half of what you said, but definately see why this play is correct/profitable now.

For the record:

SB folded, BB called (as did Mr. All-in).

FLOP: T, A, T rainbow

BB checked, I bet, BB folded

TURN: T
RIVER: 4

Mr. All-in actually had AKo and got unlucky. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

(and yes, he immediately rebought for the minimium) /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Peace and thanks,
Jason

[Joe Tall]

I like the way you are thinking about this hand. It's a great play. Don't doubt yourself so much next time.

Keep up the good work.

Peace,
JT