Preparing to play online micro-limits for a living (long)...

[ThrillFactor]

I've been debating as to whether I should begin this series of posts for quite some time. First let me say that YES, I'm a davidross junkie/wannabe and, of course, this series of posts would not be my original, earth-shattering concept. However, I do believe that the micro-limit aspect of my game would require some slightly different approaches and generate some slightly different discussion than David's 3/6 and 5/10 exploits. I also believe that the knowledge swapped within could greatly benefit many new players and/or those who have been thinking about doing exactly what it is I'm fixing to attempt. I KNOW that this "diary" would help me to clarify and organize my thoughts and approach to the game, so if for no other reason than that - here goes. Let me tell you a little about myself:

My name is Will and I've been playing poker for about 4 years. I discovered Hold'em online about 3 years ago and was a losing player for the first two, though I couldn't understand why. I would destroy my home games which were a mix of stud, draw, and criss-cross, usually with tons of wildcards. Now hold'em is straight poker, of course, but still... I truly believed I was fundamentally sound and "knew" the game. At any rate, at my weekly home game I'd win anywhere from $200-300, and then proceed to dump it back into the black-hole called Paradise. Then about a year ago, I discovered 2+2 and realized that I knew nothing at all about poker theory. Within 6 months of lurking and absorbing information I became a break-even player. Now, I believe, I can say without a doubt that I am a winning .50/1.00 player, perhaps even one of the better ones you'll stumble across.

I am 33 years old today (yuck) and will be retiring from the nightclub industry January 1, 2004. I have been a club manager for 8 years, and though it certainly has its perks, the charm has worn thin and I'm leaving now before I'm stuck. My current position pays $42,000 but requires me to be at that building betweeen 65 and 72 hours a week at the most inconvenient hours to a normal life imaginable. I have an undergraduate degree in environmental biology that I have no desire to use. I do, however, have about 18hrs credit towards my MBA which is the direction I hope to travel. If all goes according to plan, I'm going to support myself playing online while going to school to finish that program. Easy, right???

I need to make $600/week to maintain my standard of living. I'm willing to sacrifice and can survive on $450. Taxes are an issue I'll worry about later if I see that this little experiment is working. My hourly win rate at Party .50/1.00 playing 3 tables for the last 6 months is about $15/hr (spotty records, somewhat limited hours). This comment is not meant to stir debate about win rates (not another one PLEASE), I am confident that I can maintain it - there are some truely terrible players at this level and table selection is the key. I have been thinking about making this move for quite some time, however I have been afraid to walk away from a gauranteed pay check (and it's not a bad income for the area I live). But I can't take it anymore, can't deal with the 5am mornings and week after week of wasted days because that's when I get to sleep. So Monday, January 5th, it begins.

Between now and then I'm nest-egging enough cash to suvive on for 2 full months (Jan. and Feb.). Bankroll will be padded in the meantime (already at 300BB) with what I win playing part-time. I'm going to order all the books - that's right, haven't read a single one yet. Like I said, all my knowledge thusfar has been gained from absorbing what's put forth here. I won't have time to read them until the new year, but I'll have them ready. And post, post, post!!! I haven't done so in the past because many times similar hands are already there. I'll be looking for the ones that are out-of-the-ordinary. I will start out at 4 Party/Empire .50/1.00 tables for a week or two to get an idea of what I can expect. I plan to very quickly sub in one or two 1/2 tables. I'm pretty sure I can beat those right now, but I wonder if I can beat them at the same rate I beat .5/1? If that works, four 1/2 tables will become the norm and when bankroll permits, I'll throw in a 2/4 table and so on and so forth. My friends and family think that I'm insane. I say to them that I've never failed at anything I set my mind to. Let's hope this is no exception!

I am very interested in any and all constructive feedback/criticism any of you may have to offer. I'm sure there will be weeks of congratulations followed by weeks of "keep-your-chin-ups". Let's hope the former outnumber the latter (I think I got that right?!). And hopefully I can share some helpful infomation or add some insight to raise the overall knowledge/caliber of the board. Wish me luck!!

As a final note: I'm on paid vacation this week - first one in 3 years. I'm doing nothing but relaxing and catching up on things around the house for the week. Well, that and paying poker. I'm not going to play full-time this week, after all it is supposed to be a vacation, but I do plan to play 25 hours or so just to get an idea. That will definately be the most hours I have played online in one week since I discovered it. So far - 7 hours, 1050 hands, +165BB. Good start...

C'ya at the tables,

Will

[Dylan Wade]

I'm not sure what to say that is not discouraging, so...

Good luck!

[Ray Zee]

good luck you have my wishes. BUT not my beliefs. i do not think anyone can make enough at one buck limit to do more than starve. good luck though again. you must move up if you can beat the small games.
the big thing is that playing all those hours will sooner or later make you crack and go nuts. then you will start losing or worse. learn to play better and move up to limits that can support you. keep your job until you have a bigger cushion. unless you can get another.

[Sven]

Good Luck Will there are other people here that are doing the same as your gonna be doing so maybe they will throw you some good suggestions your way /images/graemlins/smile.gif I'm just learning myself so I don't think I would be of any help to yea /images/graemlins/smirk.gif @ any rate Good Luck again.... Mike

As I was told Read Read Read and Post Post Post /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ThrillFactor]

Well, that back up plan is certainly do-able. I've already considered the option that if it doesn't work out as planned, I can find a lesser paying job and suppliment my income with the poker. Should be able to maintain standard of living and still work in a school schedule (MBA program at local university is evening classes). BUT, moving up in limits is on the agenda.

-w

[Alobar]

I think I might be the first one here to say I believe in you /images/graemlins/smile.gif I'm currently actually attempting to do the same thing. A month ago I placed 3rd in a tourny that paid me $1200 and with the cash I had been making at poker, I decided to quit my crap job and try to get by playing micro limit. I'm not driven by money, and I figured if I could make just $1,500/month (I live out west, cost of living is CHEAP) doing something I enjoy and not having to answer to some A-hole or be somewhere at a certain time when I'd rather be doing something else, then I was MORE than happy to be making just enough to get by. I'm 25, single, no kids no car payment, none of that crap, so my situation makes it MUCH easier. I've been playing 2 party 1/2 tables at a time, and am averaging about $100 a day, playing for about 4-5 hours at a time. So far so good. I'm thinking about moving up to 2/4 and doing the same (eventually I wanna get to 5/10, but am NOWHERE near that skill level yet). But am going to wait at least another month just to make sure my current 1/2 run isnt some form of short term "lucky" run. I can return to myold job whenever I want, so I'm not going to be giving hand jobs in the park for rent money if this doesnt work out. But I'm a million times happier doing what I want, when I want, than I was when I was working a "real" job. If you want PM me, maybe we can swap some advice and stuff since we are both trying the same thing. And just remember to keep studying poker! I think of time spent reading poker books and this forum as working towards a promotion. Its the only way im going to get better and be able to move up in limits and make some more money. Good luck man, I for one think it can be done.

[Aaron Lovi]

A good player should never have a losing week and maybe have a losing day *at most* once a week at the levels you are talking about.

If you are any good at this, you will build up a bankroll sufficient to play 2-4 within 2 weeks. The steps I'm thinking about are parlaying $300 into $600 to play 1-2 and then $1500 to play 2-4 (cashing out the initial $300 will leave you with 300BB to play 2-4). If you're playing 6-8 hours a day you should be able to do this. Keep your job until then--it's just 2 weeks (please include playing on Saturday and Sunday!!), and then you will know.

consider this a character building exercise. Please don't consider quitting any job until then. You *have* to know for yourself whether you can handle putting in the hours and whether you truly have the win rate that you claim to have.

[ThrillFactor]

Glad to hear about your success. I do believe, despite what the nay-sayers (sp?) would have you believe, that you can pull more that 1-2BB/hr/table from these guys at these levels. I've been doing it for 6 months!! $100 a day. That's all I need. Yes, I want more, but that's more than enough for me to survive on. I would certainly be interested in swapping ideas with you as this develops.

Consider adding a third then fourth table at your current level before moving up. After the initial breakin period of getting used to the added action, the skill level of your opponents is the same and your win rate should be the same also. IMO, beats going into the unknown before maximizing your progit potential at 1/2.

I'll see you at 1/2 soon.

-w

[ThrillFactor]

Quitting the job is not an option. Please understand after 8 years - I'm done. Not another day, for better or worse. I have enough saved to live comfortably for 2 months. I'll be looking for a job after 2 weeks if things don't go well initially. Wish me luck.

[josie_wales]

Wow
$100 a day. So that would, at a .50/1 table 10BB/hr for 10hours a day over 6 months. Or 8BB/hr over 12.5 hours at a 1/2.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
Wow
$100 a day. So that would, at a .50/1 table 10BB/hr for 10hours a day over 6 months. Or 8BB/hr over 12.5 hours at a 1/2.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where are you getting the 6 months from?

[Gomez22]

Someone give Poindexter here an A+ for math, will ya?????

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

I HAD to do that, Josie........


hehehehehehehehehehehehehe.........

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]

Where are you getting the 6 months from?

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, I get to quote my own message. I read the posts out of order, I see now...sorry

[Aaron Lovi]

Listen, you are talking about $100/day being enough to "survive" on. An excellent gambler does not think in these terms. You are taking on a significant new risk in your life. These risks require a "margin of safety". If $100/day is enough to survive on then you must make more than this. Your margin of safety is the most important thing to consider in this endeavor. I will take a guess that saving up 2 months living expenses is also not enough margin of safety. So please be more careful.

[Alobar]

I know families of 4 who survive on less than $100/day. I dunno if your post was directed towards me or thrill, but in either case our intentions arnt to live for ever playing micro limits. In my case, its working for right now until I can move up to higher limits, or fail and return to a normal job. and in his case he wants it to work while he finishes his MBA.

[The Bear]

Aaron,

I think you have an excellent idea here, but are being too ambitious. The statement: "A good player should never have a losing week and maybe have a losing day *at most* once a week at the levels you are talking about" is simply untrue. If Will goes through with this plan, he will have MANY losing days and will also experience losing weeks, even if they are very rare. And two weeks is not nearly enough to "know" if you can handle playing poker for a living.

Will,

I'm going with Ray Zee's advice. Build your bankroll to a level sufficient to play 2-4 or 3-6 (no matter how long it takes), and then give it a shot. If you don't do that, you will need to get lucky for this plan to work (by catching a very solid run of cards at the beginning of your experience). Remember that it is substantially more difficult to build a bankroll when you are paying your bills from your winnings.

By the way, these comments are not coming out of my ass. I have played online poker professionally for the last 6 months and the circumstances for my decision were similar to yours. However, I had over 1000 table hours with a reasonable win rate at 3/6 before I even considered the plan. And even then, I almost backed out.

Good luck with everything.

[Lori]

Being shrewd with your bonus hunting alone should be good for $200 or so a month.

This might not sound much, but it is a very tidy way to lower your downside.

It is certainly possible, good luck.

Lori

[Lori]

There is a very good thread in the zoo talking about the pros and cons of this, I have linked to my favorite post in the thread by goodguy_1 but the whole thread is of value.

zoo post (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=412215&page=0&view=collap sed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1)

Lori

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm a davidross junkie/wannabe

[/ QUOTE ]

Stick around here and we'll have you playing better than DR and up to the higher limits in 1/2 the time.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm going to order all the books - that's right, haven't read a single one yet

[/ QUOTE ]

Do yourself a favor, before you even begin, go buy the books as soon as you read this message. You'll save more BBs in the long run and it is a +EV move!

Welcome to the forum,
Joe Tall

[scotnt73]

I wish you the best of luck! Be sure that the first book you get is Winning Low Limit Holdem. Its a very easy read and it changed everything for me at these levels.

[Festus22]

A timely read just posted in the Internet forum.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=412215&page=0&view=ex panded&sb=5&o=14&fpart=

Also remember to keep accurate records since your earnings are taxable. Don't forget to factor that in when calculating how much you'll need to survive unless you plan on ignoring this requirement.

[Rico Suave]

Quote: A good player should never have a losing week and maybe have a losing day *at most* once a week at the levels you are talking about.

Wow...Boy, I suck. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

--Rico

[brian0729]

Aaron is going to start to think Im picking on him, /images/graemlins/smirk.gif im not, but this statement is totally untrue.

[southerndog]

Thrill,

My experience has shown me that the 2/4's actually play
looser and worse than the 1/2's. I haven't played a lot
at the 1/2's, but that has been my experience. Others may feel differently. My hunch is that people who are successful at the .5/1 work there way up to the 1/2's and have therefore survived the .5/1's and are the better players.. Just a guess. Anyway, good luck, I think you will do fine. Just concentrate on getting your degree.

Dog

[crockpot]

i don't believe you can do it, but good luck, and be sure to report your results when you're done with the experiment.

the results will be interesting to see, at least.

[ThrillFactor]

Good thread. Something a few of my closest friends have already talked to me about.

[squiffy]

Any time you take an interesting activity and turn it into a profession, it ceases to be as much fun. The long hours of repetition will eventually get to you. And it will become work. The vast majority of us cannot escape that. At least it will be a change from your current line of work.

But I like the advice of one of the other posters below, get a new job that hopefully appeals to you and do the poker part time as a fun thing.

I suspect Ray Zee is correct. And what he is saying is the conventional wisdom. At the low limits, you just won't make enough, consistently, to make it worth your while. It will take too many hours and too much effort just to eke out a small profit. And eventually, it will become work.

Don't take a fun activity like poker and turn it into drudgery.

Having said that. I know you are going to try. So best of luck.

[josie_wales]

I thought he said that he has averaged $100 a day for 6 months, so I was just commenting on the numbers necesarry over a 6 month period to make that kind of money. One amazing player I guess.

[squiffy]

They're going to do it anyway Aaron.

[J_V]

I disagree, you let me play 40 hrs a week at these limits online and I wouldn't lose on week in a year.

[brian0729]

I dont see how you can claim that. We all play this game we all know there are good runs and bad runs. Im sure you have ups and downs at your current level. I dont think you can just drop down to micro and just start winning every week, week after week. Variance still comes into play at this level or any level for that matter. A good player probably doesnt have to work as hard to win at this level but that doesnt guarantee you positive results every week. Im sure you would have less losing weeks than your current level if you are a skilled player, but none seems a bit far fetched. I may be completley wrong and am not challenging your skill level, but this seems like an incorrect statement to me.

Was everybody who took the OIC challenge ahead of the .50/1.00 game after the first week, Im sure most were but I bet not all?

[ThrillFactor]

A good palyer is going to sometimes have his good hands cracked on the river by the calling stations at this level. But there are SO many that call SO many bets on your hands that do hold up that I believe I can make this work.

Maybe I'm wrong...

[brian0729]

Yes your good cards will get cracked and you will have some down swings. We all know that. I just didnt want you or some others playing at this level to feel like they wont be able to succeed or ever move up because they have losing weeks form time to time. It happens to all of us and is part of the game at any level. GL I wish you well.

[squiffy]

PROVE IT!!!!!

[squiffy]

Yours is the first post I have ever read wherein someone even said he was going to TRY to make a living at .50-1 or microlimits.

Again, if you play multiple tables, perhaps your win rate will be much much higher than playing a single table.

But if it is possible to make a living at micro limits, wouldn't people be trying to do it and doing it every day.
And wouldn't some of them post here?

The only posts I see are from people playing at higher limits.

Which leads me to believe it is probably unrealistic.

[el_grande]

There will be streaks of several days where you have double bad luck. Where you are only playing around 12% of your hands because of bad hole cards, and when you do play them, they get cracked much more than they should. So you lose to the blinds and what you put into large pots. You will have to deal with that.

[Dylan Wade]

I think after one week you're past the variance. Sure you might come out down after one single day, but over the course of the week you should at least be ahead. Perhaps not 1 BB/hour ahead , but ahead still.

I can't prove this, other than to say it seems to be the way things are.

[Gomez22]

First off... one week, even playing 10 hours a day is in no way any kind of measure of how you are going to do LONG TERM....... I've had weeks where I've won 200 BB, and weeks where I was down almost 100 BB...... I will never claim to be good or great at hold em, but I will offer you this to think about......

I have only really played .50/1.00 online until the OIC, at which time I shot up the leaderboard.... I was in the top 4 for the first week, and I believe I was the second player to reach 3/6..... maybe the 3rd..... am I that good? Hell, no.... I just had a good week of cards... hell, I haven't even played the OIC for a week and am STILL on the leaderboard.... there are 200+ 2+2ers playing the OIC and if you even think for one second that I am better than even 3% of the players on this forum, you're dead wrong.... Most of these players would spank me like a little girl if I were to play them on a constant basis. So by you're reasoning, even though at least 95% of the players here may be more skilled than me, I should be one of the "best" players here? C'mon...... even 10,000 hands is way too small a sample to determine variance. Even the best players in the world go through weeks, even months of losing..... the only thing is that the good players are able to minimize their losses during these stretches, and there are probably only a handful of players on this forum that would be able to even attempt playing hold em for a living, and, not to offend anyone, I think that maybe 70%-90% of them would fail....... not to say they are bad players at all, but there ARE times when the swings go south..... and they can last for a long time.

Not to offend you, but if you've NEVER had a losing week, look out, because when it hits you, it WILL hit you hard, and it'll bring you to your knees........... I promise. Even at the micro-limits.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont see how you can claim that.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK. 40 hrs/week. Play 3 tables w/ hands at twice the rate of B&M. That's like 240 hrs of playing B&M. Probably more given how slow low-limit B&M games are dealt. I'll put money on J_V never losing in a 6-week stretch there.

[Ulysses]

I'm sure J_V has had many losing weeks. My offer still stands - I'll put money on him not having a losing week playing full-time at micro-limits.

Of course, it's moot, since I doubt anyone would bet enough to be able to make it worth J_V's time.

[ThrillFactor]

I'll put money on me not having a losing week either /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Gomez22]

You're probably right, Ulysses.... have to have mega-bucks for something like that!

LMAO

[brian0729]

Over a six week period I would back J_V. He said over a year and Aaron said you should NEVER have a losing week. I was just pointing out that they will happen sometimes at all levels. I also agree that this point is mute I realized it when the discussion insued. Any player good enough to beat these levels for long periods of time arent playing them anyway.

[Sven]

I will second that! If you haven't experienced the looseing aspect of the game yet. I can tell yea I don't like it!! I've started reading Zen and the art of Poker and I was getting some pretty bad beats and I know if effected my game play and after reading most of this book so far I just got done with a 5 hour session were I saw some really bad beats but I kept my cool and ended up 45 BB's /images/graemlins/smile.gif So call it lady luck or what ever there is something to be said about keeping your cool /images/graemlins/smile.gif))

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Over a six week period I would back J_V. He said over a year

[/ QUOTE ]

You missed my point. What I was pointing out was that one week of full-time online play w/ 3 tables is like 6 weeks B&M. And yes, I think it's very likely J_V could go a year online without having a losing week.

[J_V]

I would have to be playing multiple games online, of course. At the B&M, it would not be possible because of the lack of hands and high rake. But I could play 6-8 online, no problem. I bet you could play 10 with the right set up. Just set it for autopilot....lol. With that many hands, I can't foresee losing for a week. I don't think I would lose playing 3 games at a time, but I'm not sure, I haven't tried, so I am just guessing. But, I am pretty sure of my claim.

[J_V]

don't do that, then the whole world would know I can't even beat .50-1. I'd be exposed for the fraud that I am.

[J.A.Sucker]

I easily think that you can handle this in a week (or less). The play at the microlimits is so bad that you'd make a good amount. The rake is fair and there's no tipping. A player of your caliber would make something like 2BB/30 hands, with a SD of about 10BB/30hands. After 3000 hands, you'd expect to earn 200 BB's, with a SD of 100 BB's. Therefore, breaking even is something like a 2.5% shot. You could almost get 3000 hands at one table in a 40 hour week, plus I think you'd actually be earning more and have smaller swings than I said. This all assumes that you wouldn't want to kill yourself after playing all this microlimit stuff. I personally don't have the mental stamina to do this, but I'm Just Another Sucker.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
But if it is possible to make a living at micro limits, wouldn't people be trying to do it and doing it every day.
And wouldn't some of them post here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because most players that are good enough to beat the micro-limits are good enough to beat the 3/6 game, the only thing holding them back is the bankroll. If you have the bankroll for 2/4 or 3/6 it makes no sence to try and make a living playing .5/1

[ThrillFactor]

And that's just it. I don't plan to be at .5/1 very long, but I do need to build a bankroll and I'm confident with that level as a base to get started from.

[Nottom]

I never expected you would stay there.

You will either decide its not something you want to pursue or you will move up in limits. Good luck in either case.

[X-Calibre]

hey enough about whether you can or can not do it. where is you diary going to be? here?

and also, what is your table selection technique that allows you to be so damn successful!!