Is there a cure for predictability?

I'd like to think of myself as a solid player. But lately it's gotten to the point where I don't really play an imaginative game. Sometimes I'll do value raises like raise on the button with JTs or some other suited connector with many limpers, but beyond that, my play is more or less 'by the book', i.e. AA, KK, QQ, AK I raise, and limp with medium pairs and other strong, but not Group 1 holdings. I was playing at a (usual) loose 9/18 game at Commerce last night, and every flop saw about 5 or 6 players seeing the flop. I get black Kings UTG. I of course pop it, a couple EP's and MP's fold, one of the later MP's asks, "who raised it?", and after finding out it was me, folds, and hell, EVERYONE folds. So I win the blinds. Now, I'm not gonna complain I won the blinds, but it would be nice to see some more action. After I lost my 2 racks, I sweated my friend for a few hours, and saw him raise with many really strange hands. Sure, he might have lost an extra small bet here and there, but his opponents for the most part had no idea what he was playing. What should I do? Start raising with more speculative hands? Bluff more and take advantage of my tight image? Basically it's gotten to the point where the blinds and collection charges slowly eat away at my stack until I have nothing left. I need to vary my play, but I don't know how!

"my play is more or less 'by the book', i.e. AA, KK, QQ, AK I raise, and limp with medium pairs and other strong, but not Group 1 holdings."


If you're saying you raise ONLY with Group 1 holdings, then you're not playing "by the book" and are missing out on some value raises. Since players are folding to your raises, you need to start raising with more hands. But don't raise with mediocre hands, raise with Group 2 hands and some Group 3 hands.


I'd reccomend you start raising with JJ, TT, AQs, AQo, AJs, KQs regularly. I'd also consider raising a % of the time with 99, ATs, and AJo. But the key is to raise more often with quality hands. Don't raise with speculative hands.


You'll definitely be able to get away with some bluffs if people are folding so easily to your pre-flop raises. Take advatage of it and NEVER show your bluffs. Let them keep on thinking you've got the nuts.

Simplest cure: never limp.

I took call out of my game about 2 years ago for the same reasons you are citing. If I limped players thought I had a speculative hand and would start raising to make me pay. If I raised, I often got the blinds or a single call and then flop fold. If I didn't get a flop fold, I got beat by a hand that hit the flop hard. I soon learned to raise with group 2 and group 3 hands and even occasionally with a group 4 or 5 hand But I never limped. At first I got remarks like, "geez, I've never seen you raise so much" to which I responded, "blame the dealer, these are awesome hands". As time went on, I got caught in a couple of bluffs and then the flood gates started to break open. Somedays they can't get the chips in fast enough. On those days I revert to very tight hand selection. (no need to get creative anymore). I even throw in the odd playful comment like "raise it up fella's". This seems to make it more fun to gamble with me.

A little advice... make sure your bankroll can stand a little extra variance as it is sure to endure some.


Good Luck


Larry

I'm sorry, I didn't mean to imply that I raise ONLY with group 1 hands, but that my group 1 hands are automatic raises. I'll raise with JJ, TT, etc. depending on the situation, but basically my opponents more or less always know where I'm at. Never/hardly limping definitely does sound like a good idea, and if I play poker again I'll definitely employ that strategy, thanks for the responses.

i play holdem since 8 years and have reevaluated my play several times(and redesigned)

it always has helped me to get a fresh view on poker when i experienced your above mentioned troubles:reread several good books(even if it is for the 10th time) and read them slowly.observe and watch other good players,especially the aggressive ones.one disease is passivity and calling play,especially once you get insecure and lose confidence in your play.the second disease is autopilot,you play your hands more and more the same way and get predictable,just like you expressed in your letter.so you check your good and best hands sometimes,and raise your weaker hands sometimes(but only seldom) to set some doubt into your opponents thinking about you.and furthermore a break of some weeks can refresh your mind too.play fewer hands maybe but play them very aggressively.

hope this helps,just my personal experience,good luck

I suspect that Tommy's answer was tongue in cheek. Idoubt that he espouses an "always open raise" strategy. While that does make you tougher to read, what you gain by that is not enough to make up for what you lose by raising or folding when it is proper to limp. For example, if I have 88 or 77 UTG, it is almost always the better play in my games to limp.


Being predictable is not a big concern in all but the toughest of games. In any event, you can and should throw in the odd screwball plays (like raising UTG with 98s or limping in with AA/KK/AKs) to make you a little less predictable.

Well perhaps to NEVER limp is a bit extreme, but in the low limit games in Southern CA, people will pretty much see the flop regardless. Granted, at 9/18 they're a bit tighter than 3/6, but if you were to raise UTG with 88 or JTs or something, I'd imagine you'd still get 3 or 4 callers, plus the blinds, making it not a very bad move in terms of a value raise. Before, I was limping late with KQs and AJs, but perhaps I should think about raising more often in those situations.

Of course I was being a little extreme. Some hands are certainly better played with a limp. I should have said that I PRACTICALLY eliminated limp from my game. The point is the same though, by using raise instead of limp, players have a lot more trouble putting you on a hand until later in the hand when it is usually too late.


Cheers


Larry

"I suspect that Tommy's answer was tongue in cheek."


Nope. Quite serious.


"I doubt that he espouses an "always open raise" strategy."


Bear in mind that the question was not, "Is there a cure for predictability that would also happen to be my (meaning Sooga's) best strategy?"


A doctor might tell us that a preventive cure includes "always" this or "never" that, where either extreme is unreasonable or impossible as a life style, but the emphasis is proper nonetheless.


Tommy

I realize that the words 'never", "always" etc are not to be taken literally. But barring some kind of master strategy which one might possibly use and perfect such as Abdul's "always limp or "always openraise" strategy, it strikes me that just approaching the game with a particular bent towards always open raising is less than optimal.

try a few snorts of moonshine before your next game, you're liable to do anything, heh, try to not get arrested tho... :o)

"Trouble is that for the life of me I don't see how anyone can win long range with a bent toward limping, yet two or three players seem to do just that, limp and win."


If most of the big decisions and big money is made POST_flop, then why is this statement so suprising? Maybe more than one way to skin a cat?

"...it strikes me that just approaching the game with a particular bent towards always open raising is less than optimal."


Would you say that a particular bent toward limping is less that optimal as well?


How about if we toss out the button and the blinds and we were forced to choose between:


1)always fold or limp

2)always fold or raise (or reraise when it's already been raised)


Which would you choose?


The whole limping-frequency question haunts me and it's the only thing that makes me wish I knew the long-range results of a few of my opponents who limp far more often than what I happen to consider optimal, yet they seem to do okay, making me suspect that it's more important how our choice fits into our overall plan than how the choice pans out on each hand. Trouble is that for the life of me I don't see how anyone can win long range with a bent toward limping, yet two or three players seem to do just that, limp and win. But hey, stacks in my mirror may be smaller than they appear.


Tommy

I think part of it is that most players who limp a lot play far too many hands. It's not that they're limping that makes them losers; it's that they're limping with hands they should be folding. I do know some players who limp far more than the "average" winning player, yet they too win. I think it's because they're limping only with quality hands, hands that most other playes raise with.

Most of the big decision and big money is probably made post-flop, but if I understand correctly, what you do pre-flop dictates the flow of the hand post-flop. You can't just say that the only difference between raising and limping pre-flop is one small bet. By raising you take control of the hand and you can probably win more in the long run, right? I'll definitely have to start raising more often.

"Would you say that a particular bent toward limping is less than optimal as well?"


Yes.


As for limping frequency, my game playing live poker in Vancouver has a lot of open limping. On Planet Poker, there were days when I would hardly ever open limp but on other days, I would. IMO, these are matters that are a function of the type of game you find yourself in at the precise moment that you are asked to make your decision.


BTW, if I were forced to making a choice, I would choose always raising as opposed to always limping. But thankfully, that choice does not have to be made in real play. Open limping is a poker tactic that has its place in proper poker strategy.

Did somebody, months ago, suggest that you start doing this? Did anybody ever suggest that you need to be slightly more aggressive? Or even, a lot more aggressive? Just curious.

It depends how loose the game is. If it is ultra loose you need to limp more. This is recommended by Mike Caro and also in the loose games section of HPFAP. They both say if everyone is going to call you no matter if you raise or not, then some hands should just be limped with so you can see if you hit the flop or not. For instance, AQ would normally be raised, but half the reason to raise with this is to isolate and cut down the competition. If you know that you can't do this, it's better to limp with it. However if it is suited you don't care if everybody calls, a big multiway pot is what you are aiming for. Basically keep raising with hands (big suited connectors) that do well in multiway pots, but if someone says never limp with AQ no matter how loose the game is, I think that's a mistake. Basically if you don't mind if everyone calls your raise, go ahead and do it, but if you do mind (unsuited big cards), and you think your raise can't knock out any of the crazy calling stations behind you, then it is probably right to limp and see if you hit the flop. This will save you money in these crazy games.

I think the best advice is the loose games section in HPFAP, they recommend often keeping it to a single bet before the flop in these extremely loose games. But if the game is not like this then I do think raising most of your hands preflop is a good idea. I just think it is a mistake to do this if no one will fold to it, this has bit me in the ass a few times in games where 7-8 see the flop every hand.


Tim

skp,


In certain type of games I never open limp (but I will sometimes call after others have limped). An example might be a typical middle level holdem tournament.


Generally, games that are tight and moderately aggressive with some blind stealing equity are in this category. Limping gives away that equity and leaves you subject to a raise behind.


Regards,


Rick

"Open limping is a poker tactic that has its place in proper poker strategy."


I agree, and didn't mean to suggest otherwise. I'd be real surprised if we had any real disagreement on any aspect of this topic.


Tommy

Hello,Sooga,

I'm assuming you are playing with "regulars".

If the players start to fold frequently when you raise UTG,raise more freguently with hands you would normally play in late position,such as medium suited connectors. This is known as "changing gears".

If your opponents start to call you ,then revert to your normal play--in other words,"change gears again".

Continue to flip-flop . This way,you will incorporate some deception in your game.


Sitting Bull

"...it strikes me that just approaching the game with a particular bent towards always open raising is less than optimal. "


I must agree here. I often play in games where limping BTF is probably the best choice in various situations, even though I will often be raising when I enter a pot.


Dave in Cali

don't know if someone already wrote this... but my simple advice is spend some time finding other tables/rooms.


vary your time at different poker rooms. if you're a solid player, you'll make more money IMO if YOU are new to your opponents than if they ALL KNOW you are solid. of course, i'm assuming your seasoned enough to adapt to tables with new faces quicker than most people since you'll be facing NEW players as well.


i've always believed and still believe for solid players, game selection is THE #1 factor impacting your winnings.


and taking into consideration everyone's advice here, you should not also forget about just simply finding more tables to sit at. people have short memories. the less they see you play, the less they will remember about the cards you play and how you bet them.

Your advice has merit, and I don't question it. However, there's another point of view, which I hold, which is pretty much the opposite of what you are saying, but nevertheless doesn't contradict you.


In San Diego, I mostly play in one cardroom. The conditions are most favorable there, and the games are almost always quite good. There is selection in this town, but when given the choice, my selection of games usually remains the same. In places where you either have no choice, or where one choice consistently stands out, playing at different cardrooms may not be a feasible cure for predictability. In these situations, you will often be playing against the same bunch of players every day. Luckily, most of these players are still bad players, so profitability is not a problem. However, predictability may be. In these situations, you MUST vary your play. I am pretty unpredictable when I'm at the lucky lady, but the underlying image of a solid player should still be intact with most of the observant players. But I have to vary my play, because I am facing the same players almost daily. However, when I go to Vegas, I play a much more "predictable" game, because virtually everyone will be an unknown to me, so there's no need to advertise that I'm "unpredictable."


Game selection IS the #1 skill to winning play. Luckily, the games are good...


Dave in Cali