[b]Do you agree with this Ciaffone/Brier hand?[/b]

[JTrout]

Middle Limit Holdem Poker p. 97, problem #18:
"30-60 game. There is an early limper and you raise from mid position with Ks Kd. The cutoff, the big blind, and the limper call. There is $260 in the pot and 4 players. The flop is: Jc 9h 8c, giving you an over pair. The big blind bets and the early limper calls. What do you do?"
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What do you do? I would raise, but they recommend calling. I think this must be a close decision. Am I wrong?
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It seems to me that you would be getting +EV on a raise here, and should charge any draws the max. I guess I don't yet have a clear understanding of where the line is drawn between raising with top pair or over pair to charge others, and backing off and playing passively. I see that this flop is dangerous, and that early players have shown strength. Can the difference of opinion here be just a matter of the difference in the game they describe, and the game I usually find myself in? (< 10-20 with many fish, few solid players)
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I'm very interested in your opinions. Thanks.

p.s. I really enjoy this book. The format is great.

[Ed Miller]

I would probably just call. If a brick falls on fourth street, I'd plan to raise a bet. If an ugly draw-completing card falls on fourth street, then I'd have to decide what to do based on the action.

The problem is that your hand really isn't all that strong on the flop. If it is the best hand now, then there are lots of cards that can come on the turn or river that will likely leave you in the dust. Because of this, you really don't have all that much equity in the money that goes in on the flop. For instance, would you prefer to have KK or JT on this flop? Against four opponents, I'd prefer to have JT, even if I knew that I was against KK.

To show you what I mean, I posited some example hands for your opponents... BB has JTs, limper has A8s, and CO has 44.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=128025
pokenum -h jh th - as 8s - ks kd - 4c 4h -- jc 9h 8c
Holdem Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Jc 8c 9h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Jh Th 374 45.61 435 53.05 11 1.34 0.459
As 8s 106 12.93 703 85.73 11 1.34 0.133
Ks Kd 226 27.56 583 71.10 11 1.34 0.279
4c 4h 103 12.56 706 86.10 11 1.34 0.129

Notice that, despite the fact that you have the best hand now, you are decidedly in second place as far as EV goes. So you'd like to wait and see the turn before you commit your money. If a blank comes on the turn, then you will become the favorite again and get of your adversaries for two big bets.

[Paluka]

majorkong-

you are leaving out the fact that the KK benefits much more from having the other 2 hands fold than the JTs does. If raising the flop successfully knocks out the A8, the KK catches up to the JT in equity.

[Ed Miller]

you are leaving out the fact that the KK benefits much more from having the other 2 hands fold than the JTs does. If raising the flop successfully knocks out the A8, the KK catches up to the JT in equity.

This is very true. If you think that raising will thin the field significantly, then you should do it. For instance, I would probably go ahead and raise if I were next to act with KK and could face two players with two cold. Since one player has already called the BB's bet, though, I would wait for the turn.

[Paluka]

Raising the flop will likely knock out the one player who has not acted, and may allow you to check behind on the turn if a really bad card comes and someone tries to checkraise you.

[astroglide]

the only reason i would call here would be to raise the turn, but there are far too many scary turn cards that could drop and force me into the call zone with kings.

i would raise.

[mr_jmac]

Speck,

As is the case with many hand examples, close decisions can be player dependent. Without info about the players here is my take on the hand:

Reasons to call in this spot are:

1)there is only one more player left to act behind you so raising to thin a field and protect your hand is not really an issue

2) this is not exactly a wonderful for your KK (someone else having two pair, straight, straight draw, flush draw are all possibilities)

3) your raise is not going to get the CO to fold if he has a piece of this flop like a pair and a draw

4)possibility of the pot getting jammed by BB or CO

It is not weak poker to tread lightly with a flop like this. Raising with an overpair is not always automatic.

Of course, it is important to maximize your shot of winning large pots but this pot is not that huge yet and there is only one player you hope to get to fold.

As far as charging others to draw ... there are a lot of possible draws here that would not mind you raising. A pair and a straight draw could have as many as 13 outs against you, for example. With top pair or over pair and a really coordinated flop it is not always correct to jam to force draws to pay more to out draw you (assuming you are in the lead)

By just calling you don't increase the size of the pot to the point where you feel committed calling on the turn and river. If a really bad card comes on the turn (of which there are many) you might safely fold without losing any more money. You also get to make your decision on how to proceed with more information since the big blind is also facing a scary board and 2 or possibly 3 players to act behind him.)

Later,
Joe

[mr_jmac]

What kind of cards does the cutoff usually require to call a raise cold? It seems like this flop is very likely to have hit his hand and it is not likely that a raise will knock the CO out.

As Major said, raising to eliminate players on the flop (protect your hand) is not a relevant factor in this decision.

[J_V]

I really like the call here. Planning to raise the turn on a blank. You can fold if a killer card comes off, and you have more equity against the draws on the turn.

[nykenny]

plus, majorkong left out the fact that the other 3 hands might be T9, QJ, T8... OK, JT is good anyway, i still want KK if i know my raise can knock out 2 players behind me.

kenny