200+15NL Stars Hand

[PlayerA]

Blinds are 75/150. I have about T2900 and am in CO. SB has T2300. I get A /images/graemlins/club.gif 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif. I raise to 600 for the steal (fairly tight table). SB calls. The flop is A /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif. Checked to me. I bet something small like T450. SB moves in. What's your move? And, what do you think the SB may have? SB just got to the table so no real read on him yet.

[nemaj]

Since he just called preflop, I wouldn't say he's reading you for a steal and trying to move you off it. I'd think he would have reraised preflop if that were the case. I'd put him on A with decent kicker, possibly 2 pair. I would probably lay it down at this point in the tourney. I don't think A3 would hold and I don't like putting all my chips in for a flush draw, even to the nuts.

[Schmed]

I have to think you're up against at the very least 2 pair, (like AJ, A10, 10j or something), or the str8, maybe even the str8 flush draw. As much as it would pain me I would probably let it go for that kind of heat. It's still early, it looks like you've built up a nice stack, and you're not splitting with your Ace.

[Nate tha' Great]

Well, I don't think you can tell what he has. JT, AK (without a club), and a set are all possibilities, as is KQ.

Worst case is that he has a set of J's or T's, in which case your win percentage is around 30%. His hand could well be weaker than that; against two pair (JT), for example, which he might also bet that way, you're a slight favorite.

If my math is correct, you'd be risking an additional T1250 in order to win a pot of T3050. That's roughly a breakeven call for you if he has a set, and significantly better than that if he doesn't. You have him covered, so I think you need to call, unless you're convinced that the other players are very weak and you'll win the darned thing anyway.

[Bozeman]

Since these tourneys start with 2500 chips and it is more than an hour in, he is a considerably below average stack. I think it is reasonable to call here as a slight dog with better than 2:1 odds. However, I think I would make a big bet on the flop first.

Craig

[J.R.]

Call. The pot has 3500 in it and you have to call 1250, so you're getting 2.8-1. If he has Ax (x > T), you're in real good shape as a favorite. Even against AK or AQ, which may be unlikely with a raise, you are only an 11-9 dog. Against a set you are about a 7-3 dog. You're a favorite over JT or any draw, against AT you're 18-11 dog that ties 11% of the time, against AJ you're not quite a 2-1 dog.

So you only make a mistake if you fold because of your overlay, or if you call against a set and you could have still recovered and outplayed the remaining field with T1800 left, which is a tall order.

[Copernicus]

Between all of the outs and a small chance you may be ahead, I think its an easy call. I agree with Mr. B that a more aggressive raise PF might be in order unless it telegraphs a weaker hand based on prior play.

[PlayerA]

I really liked the flop. I made the smallish bet knowning that I was going to call no matter what. So, in a sense, my smallish bet was a trap and I got what I wanted. He turns over A /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. He obviously misread me as weak (probably something like KK or QQ) and wanted me to fold my 6 outer. From twodimes:

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Jc Tc Ah
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac 3c 435 43.94 204 20.61 351 35.45 0.617
As 9s 204 20.61 435 43.94 351 35.45 0.383

So, knowing his cards, I clearly made the correct call since there was only a 20% for me lose and be crippled.

Anyhow, he caught a 9 on the turn and the river was a brick.

Here is the question: since I liked the flop so much that I knew I would call, should I have just moved in an attempt to take it down? I somehow doubt that his intention was to check-raise all-in no matter what.

[Schmed]

I thought they started at 1500. Do the larger buy in tourny's start with more chips??

[PlayerA]

I am not sure about SnG's. The 200+15 multi-table does start with 2500.

[mr_jmac]

A,

This is a good illustration of why (especially in tournament) checking the flop in the described situation might be preferrable.

1) You don't have a read on this player yet 2) His stack is similar in size to yours. 3) You didn't mention what the average stack size is but both of you seem to be doing well in relation to the blind size and appear to have medium stacks 4) You made a modest size raise preflop and this pot is now big (T1350)in relation to both your stacks (T2300 and T1700) 5) SB might be putting you on a steal and attempt to get all-in out of position here.

This is an action flop. The SB either has no piece of it or a hand in which he will probably commit himself with (since the pot is almost the size of his stack.)

If you push all-in on the flop it is very unlikely you will get a better hand to fold.

I don't like betting small on the flop because you are committed at this point. After your bet there is T1800 in the pot, SB raises another T1700 making it T3500 and you've got T1850 left. It is very hard to fold as you are getting almost the exact amount to hit your flush and your ace might be good.

Now, this is different from the case where you are not pot committed (perhaps in a ring game or if you a stack twice as big) and by bettting small you put yourself in a spot where if you call you are usually a dog and are forced to fold the nut flush.

Use your position and give yourself a chance to make the nuts before comitting all of your chips.