turn raise skituation

Typical southern California game. I have to post in the cutoff and get dealt Qd8d. Several call and I check, button folds. Small blind calls and BB raises. I call the extra bet when it gets back to me because it's going to be multi-way action. All call and 6 see the flop for two bets each.


The flop is Kc Td 6c. Everyone checks.


The turn is the Qc. The SB bets out and everyone folds to me. SB is a fairly weak player, relatively easy to read. He chases too much, bluffs way too much, but bets draws often, even when it's not a good time to do so. I know he does not have a king, or he would have bet the flop. I also know there's a good chance he would try to bluff here, despite the fact that he's betting into five opponents. Now he could have a flush, this is a possibility. However, if he had a flush draw on the flop, there's a good chance he would have bet it. So perhaps he has a big club and has picked up a flush draw. Another good possibility is that he has a queen, and just picked up second pair like I did. So what to do here? I'm thinking it's either raise or fold, but not call. If I'm going to call him now, I have to be willing to call on the river too, because I have no draw. Folding may be the best option here, anyone who thinks so, please say so. However, I decide to make a play on him and raise. It costs the same to raise as it does to call twice, but you have the additional possibility that he will fold and you will win the pot outright, which greatly increases your equity in the hand. Also, raising might set up a river play which will win it for you, which also adds some equity. The main reason I raised him is because he's weak and easy to read, and I pretty much decided that him having a queen is his most likely hand. If he has a queen, my eight kicker probably ain't good, so I should not simply call him down. Raise or fold. I don't know if I chose the best play, but I know it had to be better than calling.


Results to follow. Comment first please.


Dave in Cali

Results


He looked at me for a long time, then folded. Later he told me he had a queen, but didn't say what his kicker was. I didn't say what I had, because I didn't want him to think I had made a play on him. I let him think I had whatever it is that he thought I had.


I admit this was a somewhat dangerous play, I'm interested to see what the flames:support ratio is on this one!

bluffs way too much


i would call and let him bet into me on the river. thats how i usually handle bluffers. especially since you have position and can bet the river when he checks.

Dave,


Without going into specifics I generally like the daring play here because what once was a big multi-way pot is now a heads of pot with a LOT of dead money in it. Your risk is relatively small since you can't get jammed and the potential reward is great.


Now some specifics /images/tongue.gif . If he has the Ac your raise is by far the best play. If he has a better queen or slightly better hand your raise will at least slow him down (check behind on the river if you don't improve). However, I do think he could have the made flush. He might not have bet the flop since the strength was on his left. So if he makes it three bets you can probably safely lay it down at the same price it would take to call it down.


Regards,


Rick

nf,


Even if Dave's opponent bluffs way too much he can be bluffing with a hand that can easily improve to a better hand than Dave's on the river. There is a big pot at risk here and Dave needs to improve his chances of winning it and not worry about inducing a bluff which will only gain one big bet.


Regards,


Rick

Folding is not an option. The pot is too big and you are against a potential steeler. If the pot were smaller I would opt for just calling. I know it seems weak but you don't want to stop him from bluffing his weak hands and he'll probably follow through with a bluff on the river. you also save money when you are behind. however, since the pot is large, you want him to lay down draws as well as 5 outters. Raising is the best option. you can safely fold to a 3 bet.


Rob

Rob

"Never believe anything you hear at the poker table"


He told you he had a queen to make himself feel better. He was bluffing!


I can't say that, But I think you played it well, nice one.

I like the raise. If a club falls on the river you might be able to bluff your way to the pot even if he calls your turn raise.


Sincerely, Andreas

It probably wouldn't be a great idea to play Q8s, even late, in a "typical CT game" or maybe I am just too conservative. I want to play in California some day. Not that I think I would make tons of money; it just seems really interesting. Once you are in you call the raise of course.


Well, given the guy you are playing, I think the raise stands out now. You may well be ahead but it is unlikely that you can improve this hand and you might as well try to win it now. If he calls now, he might not call a bet on the river. If he raises now or calls and bets the river you would have to be really sure of yourself not to fold. So, as you say, you are paying the same price as calling twice with the 'vig' that he might fold.


--

Will in New Haven

Another way to say what you just said (which I agree with): The equity gained by improving my chance to win the pot on the turn would far outweigh the equity I could gain by trying to induce a bluff on the river.

"...I do think he could have the made flush. He might not have bet the flop since the strength was on his left. So if he makes it three bets you can probably safely lay it down at the same price it would take to call it down. "


These statements are both logical and reasonable. Now if he reraised the turn, I would fold without question. If he called the turn, I would check behind on the river.


The WORST thing that could have happened would be for him to call the turn, then have a club hit the river, that would have put me in a sticky situation, with no real good options.

"Never believe anything you hear at the poker table"


Not necessarily true. Some players will tell you exactly how they play, sometimes even exactly what they have (though sometimes in a round-about way), so you should listen. However, never believe anything at first, not till you get a chance to verify whether this person is a habitual poker liar or not.

I played Q8s because I had posted. It's pretty marginal, but when you've posted, you don't mind seeing it because so many hands are much worse.


Cali games are considerably more aggressive in general than games in other parts of the country where I have played. if you usually buy in for a rack, buy two.

theres not much chance of any reasonable draw or hand folding on the turn, imho, in 3/6...


however there is a good chance that a nothing hand will bet into you on the river.


of course, now ive read the results and see that i am "wrong"

I don't think a fourth club makes your life difficult - you're done. One of the most reasonable hands for him to have on the turn is a singleton big club. That hand just got there - if he bets, you fold. That fold is made easier by your raise on the turn, which should put the fear of God into your opponent. When he bets the river, he means it.


Regards, Lee

These are the moments we live for....

You were forced to play crap (Q8s, yeah you pretty much have to call the rz in your game) and the flop was mercifully ck's (what the was the pfrz'r think'n??? oh yeah its SoCal)...and with a great card on the turn (it is as scary to him as you) you are able to rip the candy right from the babe's mouth /images/smile.gif

Good move, much better than mumbling and calling. and I like it better than the keep you up all night wondering fold.

These are the moments that make the game what it is after we learn all about hand select. and odds and all that mind numbing goop /images/smile.gif

Great play,

Lance