AXs odds

[JDErickson]

I'm not real good with odds yet. Could someone help me figure the odds of hitting an A high flush. when the flop hits only 1 of your suit.

Thanx

[TheRake]

I think this is right...
you have 10 hearts left out of 47 cards on the turn (10/47 or .21) and 9 hearts of 46 cards on the river (9/46 or .20)
multiply these numbers together.

.21*.20=.042 (4.2% or 1/22.8)

So you are about a 23:1 dog to go runner runner.

Someone please correct me if I am wrong.

TheRake

[brian0729]

The Rake is very close. Majorkong did the math in a thread a few weeks ago and it was very similar. He compared it two the odds of making a set after you missed on the flop. He said that you could add about 1.5 outs to what other outs you have. He has been around today. Im sure he will correct me if Im wrong.

[Dylan Wade]

I get the exact same numbers as The Rake. I'm wondering how majorkong figures 1.5 effective outs added to it. I know you have aproximately equivelant to a 1 outter with 22.8 odds to the river. (22.5 odds to make 1.0 out)

[JDErickson]

Thanx for info folks. THe reason I asked is the hand below.

Party Poker 1/2 (8 handed)
Hero has T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif and is MP2

UTG limps, Hero raises, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls

Flop(6 SB): 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif

BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls

Turn(5 BB): 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif

BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls

River(8 BB): 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif

BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG raises, Hero calls, BB folds


Of course my opponent flipped Axh for the runner runner flush. I almost tilted on this but started to think maybe this guy actually had the pot odds to call this down.

What does everyone think. Was this a good play by him or should I have tilted /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Thanx
Jim

[brian0729]

He is getting 8:1 on his call, many combo's of the x would give him the odds to call. What was the x of hearts.

[WillMagic]

It depends, again, on what the X was, but in all likelyhood he had a lot of outs. He figured he had the aces, he probably had an inside straight draw, and with the backdoor flush draw it's not bad to take one off. When he picked up the flush draw on the turn it's a given that he'll call to the river.

His mistake was to play AXs preflop UTG. But he got lucky this time.

Will

[JDErickson]

sorry he had ATh

[WillMagic]

Well, in that case, he has two overcards to the flop and a backdoor flush draw. Calling on the flop is very correct - he has every reason to think he has six immediate outs and the backdoor flush draw. If he doesn't improve on the turn he should throw it away, but the flop call is correct.

Will

[rkiray]

I would of played his hand exactly like he did. Lots of people online don't understand odds well enough or board reading well enough. He had enough odds to call just based on his overcards. I always play ATs in ep. If this puts you on tilt you are way too sensitive. I love it when I play a hand like this, and it makes someone so mad they spend the next 15 minutes typing nasty chat messages to me. Sure sign of a fish.

[JDErickson]

Thanx rk for reminding me of my aquatic swimmyness.

Do you advocate calling two cold btf with ATs? Seems a little risky to me. Especially at higher levels.

Thanx,
Jim

[rkiray]

I didn't call you a fish, unless you vented your semi-tilt in the chat box. The difference is then anyone who is observate knows you are on tilt and misunderstood what happened.

Unless I misread your post no one called two cold. He called one bet in ep with ATs. I always do this. Once you call one, you always have to call one more, even if you think it's -EV. If you fold for one more bet you are inviting the entire table to run you over. If two people raise after you you might fold, but with ATs I'd probably normally call. This would depend greatly on the table and the players who raised of course.

[Nottom]

Honestly, I think pretty much any Ax is going to see a turn here. If X is 3 or 6, he has a pair, an overcard, and BD flush so I would call. If X=5 he has a Open ended straight draw. If X=2 or 7, he has a gutshot. Anything higher, most players will call just because they have overcards.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you advocate calling two cold btf with ATs? Seems a little risky to me. Especially at higher levels.

[/ QUOTE ]

He didn't call 2 cold, he limped and called a raise. And ATs is certainly playable UTG and is generally not considered an "Axs" hand because of its big card value.

And calling PF raises with ATs is a mistake unless there are already a few players in the pot.

[JDErickson]

[ QUOTE ]
He didn't call 2 cold, he limped and called a raise

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorrt abot that. I mixed up my own hand /images/graemlins/smile.gif You are right it was a limp and call of a raise.

Anyone have any advice on how I could have played this to avoid the river beat? To me it seems I was just destined to lose this one.

Thanx
Jim

[Inwar]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone have any advice on how I could have played this to avoid the river beat? To me it seems I was just destined to lose this one.


[/ QUOTE ]

At the 2-4 games at Party that I play, I've become less certain of a win against multiple opponents when I hold an overpair, or top pair, good kicker on the river. I'm currently betting 50% with these hands, and checking the other 50%.

So I think you were destined to lose the hand, but could have considered checking and saving yourself the 2 BB (bet+raise) on the river. If I did bet, I'd definitely call a raise (as you did), but expect to lose 65%-75% of the time.