Why am I not hitting any of my draw cards?

After playing (for about a month) the $0.05/$0.10 level cash games at Victor Chandler and Pacific Poker, I have figured out that the way to beat the micro limits is to outdraw your opponents (it was an inexpensive lesson to the tune of $12).

What I had noticed was that most will stay in with a 6 high flush, so you can outdraw them if you hold a queen or king high flush and so on. And also, next to no-one will fold a two pair even in the face of worrying board cards. The thing is I am now hitting about 1 out of every 6 of my draw cards, and this is getting disheartening. Whether multiple or single draws they just don't fall for me. And I know that you can't live off draw cards alone in poker, but playing top pair/top two pair aggressively at the flop is a sure way to lose money at this level as you will consistantly get outdrawn with those kind of hands in large ring games.

Is this poor run simply a reflection of the micro limit games (my results in single table tournaments have been consistant and the draws tend to fall my way about 1 out of every 3 times like the odds suggest)?

Also, I read on a forum elsewhere that in online Micro Limits, the hole cards mean nothing, i.e. ignore a preflop raise, choose your cards carefully but don't play as tight, play the flop very carefully. Is this a good attitude, or a costly one?

[lil']

but playing top pair/top two pair aggressively at the flop is a sure way to lose money at this level as you will consistantly get outdrawn with those kind of hands in large ring games.
Actually, playing top pair and two pair aggressively on the flop is a good way to make money at any level.

the hole cards mean nothing, ignore a preflop raise
Now that's a good way to lose money.

Sounds like you're having a rough time. I would encourage you to register and post some hands. You'll get more responses and help that way.

[rkiray]

I guess it depends on what you are drawing to and how long you stick with the draw. An oesd is about a 5:1 dog to improve in one card, which means it will hit about 1/6. A four flush is about a 4:1 dog. A gutshout is about a 11:1 dog. If you are folding on the turn, 1/6 isn't too bad. Of course if you are going to the river, you can approximately cut these numbers in half. Often in very low limit games you will have the odds to go to the river. If you are doing this, it does sound like you are running bad. Unfortunately, the variance in poker is so big that bad runs can last much longer than you would think. The best thing to do is post some hands then we can give you better feed back.

Hi! Thanks for your responses. Here is an example of a hand I have played.

I am in 6th position (10 seater table), and call (there are no previous or subsequent raises) with an 8c 7c. Normally I won't call with a hand like this, but as there are no maniacs at the table, I figure that it can become a good inexpensive drawing hand. Out of 10 players, 5 of us see the flop.

The flop falls 9c 6c Qh. There are two players acting before me. The 1st one bets, the second calls his bet. I figure that 1st bettor has a pair of Queens with a good kicker. He doesn't bet draw hands, he'd much rather check if given the choice. The 2nd guy is harder to read as he is quite passive. I have to assume he has a good flush drawing hand.

When I have a draw hand, I would usually just call if the pot odds were good, and only raise if I have multiple drawing hands (i.e a straight AND a flush draw). However, after reading Lee Jones low limit book, he advises that I should play draw hands more aggressively from the flop.

In light of this I raise, as I am now 3rd to act. The first two bettors call me. The 2 players after me fold.

I figure that I have 15 outs (7 flush draw cards, and 6 straight draw cards, and 2 straight flush draw cards). That gives me odds of approximately 1:1 against.

At the turn there is an Ace of Spades. I raise, and get re-raised by the 1st bettor. The 2nd guy folds in the face of all this action. Now I know '1st bettor' has a two pair. Between us we max the betting at the turn.

A 6 of hearts appears on the river.

I make nothing on the river. Absolutely nothing. No pair, no flush, no straight... nothing. To save face, I call '1st bettors' bet. '1st bettor' won with an Ace, Queen two pair. He wasn't playing to a flush or straight draw, which I already knew. I knew that if I had simply made any kind of draw hand I would have taken the pot.

Did I play this too aggressively at the turn? And should I have just folded at the river to save money, or was I right to save face and call. I figured that if I call they won't know that I missed my drawing cards and will simply assume I made a smaller two pair (I always muck my losing hands so they didn't get to see what I actually had).

I lost a lot on that hand, and even in the light of my current bad run, I could laugh it off as a bad beat, although I think the tears were more tears of pain rather than laughter /images/graemlins/frown.gif

However, about 5 sessions later, I found myself dealt a similar hand at the flop. I held a straight, flush and straight flush draw. So I figured I had 15 outs, maxed out the betting with two maniacs more than willing to call me all the way and I didn't catch that pot either.

I know that odds are only a guideline, and up until that point, even though I have missed a lot of drawing cards, I kept reminding myself that this is a long haul game, and I can't dwell on past hands. But with the hands like the ones above, I should have got something. Anything. Even if I were drawing dead!

I'm now finding myself finishing sessions either 10 BB down (I usually buyin for 30BB a session), or 0.3BB up. The only reason that my bankroll is ahead is because I continue to get good results in tournaments. Have I simply been placing too much faith in drawing hands? Especially as straight or flush draws are near 67% likely to bust out…

[rkiray]

Nice post. Lots of details, that's good. Looks to me like you do have an oesd and a flush draw. I'd raise this pup in a second against four opponents (the pf call was fine also). I think you played it fine except I'd probably fold on the river. What limit and where was the game? The pot is big enough that calling isn't bad (and may be correct). If the bettor was a maniac I might call. The bad thing about suited connectors is they add alot of variance to your game. You usually lose with them but when you win the pots are often substantial. Your hand this time is big enough you need to play it strongly, and you did. The variance in this game can be a real bear.

Welcome to the forum. By the way how did you manage to post without being registered?

Thats the reason why I don't play small suited connectors very much at all, especially in low limit games... once you go below J 10 suited your hand can become so easily dominated by bigger hands. I'm now just planning to grit my teeth and select my games (and seat) even more carefully in the future until my game gets back on track.

Also about logging into twoplustwo... I read a lot of the posts here, but I simply haven't gotton round to opening a forum account. I didn't realise until today either, but you can apparently post anonymously... simply click the reply or new post buttons, and it should let you write in your post.

BTW, what did you mean by oesd?

[AliasMrJones]

oesd = Open Ended Straight Draw. For instance you hold 7-8 and the board is 2-9-T. You have 7-8-9-T and will hit a straight if either a 6 or a J falls.

The discussion of pot odds vs. odds to hit straights and flushes is relevant, but as someone else pointed out you should be aggresively playing your top pair good kicker, two pair or three of a kind. You are a lot more likely to hit those hands than a straight and you are a lot more likely to win when you already hold those hands than when you are on a straight draw. If you are a 5-to-1 dog to hit your straight, so are your opponents. When you have top pair you'll drag the pot 5 times for every time they hit their straight to beat you. If you're playing the right starting hands top pair good kicker and three of a kinds should be your bread and butter.

It can be discouraging when you get beat by draws and it will happen more fequently than you'd like at micro limits. But, that doesn't mean emulating the fish is the way to become a shark.

Well, you gotta figure you have 15 outs out of 47 cards on the flop, and 15 outs out of 46 cards on the river. That means you have, 100-(15/47)% or 68.1% chance to miss the draw on the turn, and 100-(15/46)% or 67.3% chance to miss the draw on the river card. With a combined miss of 46% of the time, meaning you'll make a pat hand by the river 54% of the time. Simply make sure you're getting back twice what you put in the pot, and you'll be fine.

See, just because a coin lands head's up 50% of the time, that doesn't mean it's uncommon for a you to toss three or four head's in a row. And if you saw a fair coin fall head's four times in a row and someone offered to pay you 3$ for 1$ if it falls tails, you'd still be making the right decision.

Likewise, you should proceed with these draws in the future even though you missed 2 for 2 in the short term.

[Dylan Wade]

I posted that. I think the fourm has changed to allow anonymous posting. I don't like it. This is the second time where my login expired between reading and posting, and thus posting left it anonymous and uneditable.

I guess I'll just have to make sure I re-login before posting if I left my browser open for a long period of time.

I also wanted to say, I had a line where I said "make sure you're getting back twice what you put in..." Of course, any time you're involved in the pot, you'll get back (roughly) at least twice what you put in. Though, I certainly wouldn't rejam if you're only getting 1 caller the whole way through. The reason for this is because sometimes you're up against a set, and that reduces your draws value enough so that you that' little 4% edge isn't quite what you want.

[Ed Miller]

If you flop a monster draw like an open-ended straightflush draw (which is quite rare, by the way... it's been a long time since I've had one... well over 100 hours I think) then you should usually play it very fast on the flop. In microlimit games, you will frequently be taking several players along for a ride, and you are favorite (54-46) to make your hand by the river.

As you move up in limits, playing your big draws fast on the flop also helps conceal your hand some when you flop a big hand like a set and choose to play it fast on the flop as well. Your opponents will remember when you fired it up with the draw, and will be forced to give you action. This is not a true concern at microlimits, though, unfortunately, as most of your opponents will not notice what you do at all.

One point that is relevant at all limits, including microlimits, is that if you fire up your big draws on the flop, it may cause your opponents to grossly overplay their hands on the turn when you get there (especially if the straight gets there, as no one will put you on a straight after you cap the flop). Someone with a hand like top set on the flop may assume that you have bottom or middle set or two pair, and may assume that he has you crushed. He may be willing to go four bets with you on the turn while you are the big favorite! He might not be willing to do that if you played the flop passively, as he will suspect that perhaps you had the straight draw.

On the turn, however, is a very different story. Once you have already missed on the flop, your chance of hitting your draw drops to about 2-1 against. If you are against an opponent that you are convinced has two pair or better, you should not raise him on the turn with your hand. He is a significant favorite to win the hand now - continuing to raise just costs you money. In fact, frequently you will be able to take a free card on the turn after a raising spree on the flop... and many times you should go ahead and take the card, even if you think it looks silly. Someone willing to cap the flop with you generally has a hand that they plan to see the river with. That is, you will not be able to bluff them out if you continue to bet. So if you miss on the turn and it is checked to you, go ahead and check it back and hope to get there on the river.

Finally, never call a bet on the river when you know you are beaten for image reasons alone. You are just throwing money away. Your microlimit opponents won't care that you fired it up and lost the pot... or even if you fire it up and then folded. They may think it was weird for two seconds and then go back to playing their cards.