Easy payoff or easy fold?

[J'adoube]

Greetings,

Here's a hand I recently played which I thought was an easy payoff though one suggested I should be folding often on the turn. Tell me what you think.

A not so great game (tight but not aggressive).

Everyone folds to me I raise w/ J7s on the button. ONly the BB defends. I hadn't played many hands in the last hour (the time I had been at the table and neither had the BB its sat night at atlantic city...)

The flop is 883r he checks and I bet, he calls.

The turn was 7. CHeck I bet he raises. IS this an easy pay off or an easy fold (or even a reraise?).

I called and called again on the river.

I thought it was easy to read him as reading me for stealing. Thus he is going to try and take me off my hand at somepoint. Some have commented alot of people just play their cards and they aren't thinking as I suggested, and also I should be folding here most of the time.

ALl comments appreciated.

[Huh]

Blah Blah Blah depends on the opponent Blah Blah Blah is he the type to Blah Blah Blah. I know everyone gets sick and tired of hearing this, but it really does depend here.

Is your opponent capable or likely to try and move you off off of the big cards he is putting you on? Is he even putting you on a hand?

What was the suit of that 7. Is your opponent the type to bluff-raise on a picked up straight draw? or flush draw? or straight flush draw? Does your opponent always defend or never defend? Could he be the type who would cold-call here with Aces, Kings, Queens, Jacks, etc. ?


But wait...What about the river? Is your opponent likely to follow through with just a bluff? If he checks to you can you safely bet for value?

If you really can't put together a clear picture of your opponent, than I think this is a marginal situation and could go either way.

[J_V]

I'd call. My chances of folding decreases as the sophistication of the opponent increases. Online, i show for sure.

[Edge34]

I guess I might like your postflop play more if i knew if you were on a flush draw as well as hitting the pair of 7s on the turn? Also, since you said this game is "tight but not aggressive", the turn checkraise when he suddenly wakes up makes me suspicious. If he's so tight, that says something like A7 or K7s at least to me, with A8 or 78s in the back of my mind, since he would likely have raised the flop. Also, if he read your flop steal attempt correctly with, say 77, he's got the boat and you're drawing dead to three 8s in the deck. If you feel that he's only got the 7, i'd consider calling his turn raise, but being prepared to muck if your flush draw doesn't hit. Far from an easy payoff, in my opinion, as at best, you've got 8s over 7s with only a jack kicker on the turn. You are right about one thing, though, this is definitely a marginal situation at best...i guess to sum it up, overall, i'd consider saving myself at LEAST one BB, and probably more, by just releasing on the turn most of the time. Gotta pick your battles sometimes. Also, out of curiosity, what limit was this game played at?

[DanZ]

It's an easy payoff when you check behind on the turn...

Dan Z.

[elindauer]

I'd call here. folding can't be "right" in the game theory sense of the word, ie. if your opponent knew you'd lay down a hand this good, he'd certainly crush you by making this play every time.

If I had some information about my opponent maybe I'd change my opinion, but my default play would be to call it down. This would be

[gaylord focker]

I agree with Dan Z. Check behind on the turn. You might induce a bluff on river, and if checked to, you can bet for value. As far as paying off on the turn, it really is player dependant.

[Nottom]

This is exactly why the semi-bluff checkraise doesn't work; everyone always just thinks you are making a move.

[nykenny]

reraise him on the turn! or do what u did, which is fine too.

Kenny

[Gabe]

I think there are two kinds of opponents in a situation like this. Against one kind, it is wrong to bet the turn. Against the second it is right to bet the turn, but wrong to call a check-raise. Against the first kind, you will have to call the check-raise, and if you check the turn, you figure he will bluff the river. Against the second type, you’re just not giving a free card, but you trust him.
Hopefully, you have figured out which is which by the time you try to steal their blinds. Try to make up your mind before you bet the turn and go with it.

[Tommy Angelo]

"depends"

I agree. I'd have a hard time concocting a more situational situation than this one, especially one where the right answer will so often be apparent at the time. Clearly the correct play is to betcheckcallfoldraise.

[34TheTruth34]

If I was in the BB, I know what I'd be thinking as soon as I saw this flop: check-call the flop and check-raise the turn (unless a high card came on the turn). I'd play it like that almost every time (regardless of my hand), because I know it's almost impossible for you to have a pair with that board. Remember, the person bettting doesn't need to have to a piece of the board, but the person calling does. Needless to say, against opponents who think like this, you're a favorite to have the best hand and have an easy call-down situation.

As you already mentioned, if your opponent is just lost in his own world and just playing his cards, then you can fold. But you'd have to be pretty sure of that. I'd probably call down against most opponents with as little as an ace high here.