I need more convincing

[Nate tha' Great]

Not long ago, I got into discussion on this board in which I suggested that taking a coin flip chance to double up on the first hand of an SNG increases your chances of winning that SNG by substantially more than double (if the coin flip succeeds).

It was suggested to me that I was incorrect, and that assuming all players had average skill, my chances of winning would increase in proportion to my stack size, and no more. It was furthermore suggested that I look in TPFAP for a proof of this.

I bought TPFAP. On page 104, Sklansky writes,

It is a common conception that your chances of winning a tournament against equally skilled players are equivalent to the fraction of the total tournament chips that you hold ... This, if you own 15 percent of the chips, your chances of winning are 15 percent. This happens to be right, even though most people don't know why.

Sklansky then goes on to "prove" this notion by providing an example of a heads-up freeze out situation in which both players essentially commit to going all in. I find this proof somewhat compelling, insofar as it extends to the tournament endgame.

My question is: what the hell does it have to do with the early or middle stages of a tournament?

My argument is that a big stack provides you with a couple of additional advantages that, so far as I can tell, would not be accounted for by the TPFAP methodology:

1) You can steal blinds.

2) As the blinds begin to increase, the other players will become more desperate for fear of being blinded out, and you will be afforded opportunities to win further chips at favorable odds.

In other words, the advantage of a big stack relative to the field is that it is relatively easy to leverage it into a bigger stack.

[Schmed]

I've actually thought about this type of strategy for sitngos as well. I mean it's like a rebuy tournament.

There has got to be some percent chance of winning the entire thing, coming in second, coming in 3rd, versus what your result would be not playing to double up at level 1, that makes that the strategy to use. If say you were 75% more likely to come in 1st, 85% more likely to come in 2nd, and 90% likely to come in third, (obviously I'm just pulling those numbers out of the air), with your chances of doubling up at 50%, it seems that then there is some positive EV there.

[J.R.]

You also have to look at the percentages for comming in 1st, 2nd and 3rd if you pass up the opportunity and remeber that if you take the opportunity half the time your tourney ends in the first round, and when you win, you still aren't guaranteed money.

[Copernicus]

I agree that if all players are of equal skill that doubling your stack early should give you more than double your EV. Not only does it give you the additional folding equity over the weaker stacks, it gives you a wider range of hands to call with from good position that can turn into monsters.

However, once you introduce the potential that you are a better player than the majority of the field, it will cut into that advantage, and I suspect cut into it fairly deeply and fairly quickly. Casinos make their billions by risking relatively small amounts multiple times with much smaller edges than a good player has in a tournament situation. Thus I'm reluctant to risk it all without a much better than 50% edge. Unfortunately I am still seething from a series of 3 consecutive horrible beats I took on first or second hands in SnGs. Its been almost 2 weeks, and I think I can play again this weekend without risk of tilting after another bad beat or two.

[daveymck]

Does it not depend on your playing style? the more SNG's I play the more I am finding that my style is more suited to getting to the later levels hopefully with a small increase in stack size, but then loosening up and increasing stack size quickly and becoming aggressive which then hopefully gets me in control of the table putting the fear of god into the other opponants who dont want to come up against me, allowing me to steal the blinds often and a lot of post flop hands as well if the flop doesnt hit the opposition.

What I tend to find is that if I do get a lead early on I tend to try and do this too early, people are not as scared to go against you and often I dig myself in a hole.

Obviously thats a weakness in my game but what it is meaning is I am starting to tighten up early on knowing that once we get to level 4 I can come alive and play my game.