98s on the button

[Saborion]

Loose, mostly passive 1/2. 9-handed.

I`m dealt 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif on the button.
EP1 limps, EP3 limp, MP1 limp, CO limp, I limp, SB complete and BB check.
7 to the flop.

[7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif] 3 BB.
It´s checked around.
7 to the turn.

6 /images/graemlins/club.gif [7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif] 3 BB.
EP3 bet, MP1 call, CO call, I call, EP1 call.
5 to the river.

7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif [6 /images/graemlins/club.gif 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif] 8 BB.
EP3 bet, CO calls, I fold.

Now what I wonder is, on the turn when the action came to me, the pot offered me 6:1 odds. I have 6 outs, and should get 6.7:1 from the pot to make the call. Because I have players behind me that might call, but above all, given the implied odds, this is an easy call right?

[PokerNoob]

I think with all the callers that its an easy call. If you get one of your out cards, you only really have to worry about it if its a club. You have position to boot, so you can raise the bettor and callers ahead of you on the river.

[Homer]

Now what I wonder is, on the turn when the action came to me, the pot offered me 6:1 odds. I have 6 outs, and should get 6.7:1 from the pot to make the call.

You're likely to have more than 6 outs here, since the flush draw did not come on the flop. If someone has a flush draw, it's of the runner-runner variety, which is a lot less likely. The Tc and 5c will be good at least half the time (and probably more often), which means you have 7 outs, making you around 5.5:1 against getting there on the river. So, getting 6:1, you have an easy call.

Because I have players behind me that might call, but above all, given the implied odds, this is an easy call right?

Assuming for a minute that you know for a fact that someone is on a club draw, then yes, you still have a call with 6 outs. You'll easily make more than .7 BB's on the river, on average.

-- Homer

[rkiray]

Normally you would have 8 outs and need around 5:1. Most of the time there is no flush when there are 3 flush cards on board (multiway with 4 flush cards is entirely different). I think you have plenty of overlay to handle the possible flush. The thing you need to worry about is that implied odds can work against you with people still to act. If one of them raises your odds get worse (if one more person was in it doesn't matter). But that is mostly a theoretical point. I would probably raise here. You almost have enough people to make it a value bet and something Bob T. frequently mentions is raising with drawing hands disguises your raises when you have a monster and in cases like this is only slightly -EV

[Homer]

I should add that on average your implied odds will be MUCH more than .7 BB's. Your straight draw will be well concealed on a 672_K_T or 672_K_5 board. There's a good chance that the turn bettor will bet again on the river and get a caller or two before the action even gets to you. I'm guessing that you'll make an average of 2-3 BB's on the river, which means you can call a turn bet getting as little as 5:1, maybe even 4:1.

-- Homer

[JTG51]

You'll usually have 8 outs, not 6. There's no reason to believe there is a flush draw out there, all those callers could easily have any pair, gutshots, just an Ace, etc.

However, as you said, even if you knew there was a flush draw out there it would be an easy call. You should be able to make at least 2 bets on the river when you hit, and with any luck you'll get another caller or two and make 4-6 bets.

[MaxPower]

I think you should call the turn. You have 8 outs and 6 of them are clean. Even if you hit one of your non-clean outs, you will probably know by the action on the river if anyone has a flush. If you hit one of your clean outs and someone bets you can raise it. That's the advantage of being the button.

[J.R.]

You understimate your hand.

First, while its good your aware a club could make someone a flush, there's no reason to automatically assume one of your opponent's has a club flush draw. It might be better to "discount" your outs, and estimate you have perhaps 7, instead of 8 straight outs because of the possibility that club draw MAY be out there, but isn't certain to be. So your straight outs are more like 7.

Second, no one bet the flop, so there is a good chance (depending on the level of aggressiveness/passiveness of your opponents) no one has a K. Your 8 and 9 are overcards to the other cards on board. No one raised preflop, so its unlikely anyone has a pocket pair of queens or jacks, and that might also let you rule out a pair of tens. Even though your 8 or 9 might make a straight posisble, there is a decent chance an 8 or 9 will give you the best pair, so you might have up to 6 more outs (3 8s and 3 9s).

Becuase of the possibility of someone else having an 8 or 9 with a better kicker, a pair of tens or a straight draw that is completed by an 8 or 9 you may want to discount your outs and count your 8 or 9 out as 3-4 outs. So in addition to the 7 or so straight outs, you have another 3 or 4 overcard outs.

So that makes 10 or 11 outs, maing the turn call easy. As you play with your oppoents more, your reads will improve and you will beocme better at estimating whether an 8 or 9 will be good for you, and how likely it is that someone has a club draw, so you can further refine the calcualtion of your outs.

Third, as you mention there are implied odds to consider. When you make your staright you will probably win a couple of river bets, especially if someone bets from early position, there is a call or two and you can raise. Furthermore, because you have a straight draw, when you make your hand it is more disquised than a flush so people may be more inclined to call your river bet or raise.

Finally, you need not greatly fear reverse impied odds since you will only call/bet/raise if you hit. Reverse implied odds may come into play if a club straight card or an 8 or 9 hits AND you improve to a second or third best hand. But to counterbalance that effect, you should play more cautiously if one of this situations arises on the river and soemone "wakes up" (makes an unexpected bet) as you won't have a lock or the nuts as when you hit a non-flush straight card.

In sum, you probably have more than 6 outs here, and given you will fold unless you hit, and when you hit you rate to make a few extra bets, you have an easy call on the turn.

[Homer]

The thing you need to worry about is that implied odds can work against you with people still to act. If one of them raises your odds get worse (if one more person was in it doesn't matter).

In this hand there is only one player left to act, and it is an EP player who already checked. So a raise behind him is not likely. Nonetheless, this point is worth mentioning, as it will come up other times, and is something that must be considered when deciding whether to call or not. As the number of players yet to act behind you and their propensity to raise increases, the odds you need increase.

I would probably raise here. You almost have enough people to make it a value bet and something Bob T. frequently mentions is raising with drawing hands disguises your raises when you have a monster and in cases like this is only slightly -EV.

Ack. I don't like raising in this situation. There has been a bet and two callers, so you'll be getting 3:1 on every additional bet that goes into the pot (assuming the EP player who checked doesn't call two bets cold), while being around 5.5:1 against getting there on the river. Let's even assume all 8 of your outs are clean, and call it 4.75:1. So, the EV of a raise (assuming no re-raise from the initial bettor) is approximately -.3 BB's. And I'm not even taking into account the possibility of being three-bet or of some of your outs not being clean. I don't think your deception will earn you an extra .3 BB's or more on the river.

One more caller and I think raising becomes an interesting option.

-- Homer

[MaxPower]

I don't think you need to worry much about it being raised on the turn. If someone missed a check-raise ib the flop with top pair, they would certainly just bet out on the turn. If the turn made them two pair they would bet out.

I'm sure you agree.

You are correct that you need to take the possibility of a raise into account before you call in an implied odds situation.

[JTG51]

One more caller and I think raising becomes an interesting option.

Raising would also be an interesting option if you thought all of these players would have bet the flop if they had a K. That's probably not the case here though.

[Homer]

Yeah, you're right. I was only considering the straight outs. If an 8 or 9 will be good even a small percentage of the time, then raising for value becomes a better option.

-- Homer

[Saborion]

[ QUOTE ]
You understimate your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
Not entierly sure I agree. I just wanted to make sure my thought progress in a basic hand like this isn`t twisted. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ QUOTE ]
First, while its good your aware a club could make someone a flush, there's no reason to automatically assume one of your opponent's has a club flush draw. It might be better to "discount" your outs, and estimate you have perhaps 7, instead of 8 straight outs because of the possibility that club draw MAY be out there, but isn't certain to be. So your straight outs are more like 7.

[/ QUOTE ]
So if I`m only counting my clean outs, I`m a bit too tight in some cases?

[ QUOTE ]
Second, no one bet the flop, so there is a good chance (depending on the level of aggressiveness/passiveness of your opponents) no one has a K.

[/ QUOTE ]
At this site and this limit, the players are mostly very passive. Someone did indeed have a K.

[ QUOTE ]
As you play with your oppoents more, your reads will improve and you will beocme better at estimating whether an 8 or 9 will be good for you, and how likely it is that someone has a club draw, so you can further refine the calcualtion of your outs.

[/ QUOTE ]
I wish this was true. Maybe it`s just me, but when dealing with players that play any 2 cards, many that are so passive that they dare not 3-bet with two pair, how am I suppose to get a read on these? The somewhat aware players sure, but these total any-2-card-can-win players?

[ElSapo]

You're likely to have more than 6 outs here, since the flush draw did not come on the flop. If someone has a flush draw, it's of the runner-runner variety, which is a lot less likely. The Tc and 5c will be good at least half the time (and probably more often), which means you have 7 outs, making you around 5.5:1 against getting there on the river. So, getting 6:1, you have an easy call.

But the flop was checked around, so you can't really rule out clubs.

I wonder though, since I can't see anyone at this limit checking top pair (could be a bad assumption) if he might have more than 6-8 outs sometimes. Perhaps his 8 and 9 outs would be good some portion of the time? Longshot for sure, but...

[rkiray]

Reply to both you and Homer.

I only mentioned the possibility of a raise because in his original post it sounded like he thought having someone yet to act helped his implied odds. I believe it's generally more of a negative than a positive.

[Saborion]

For those of you that would like to know what the turn bettor had.

He turned over Q /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and took it down.
That`s about how passive these players are. When you do get a read on them, let me know. I find it interesting that he dared to bet out when the board paired on the river though. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Homer]

I agree that having someone yet to act behind you when you're drawing is more of a negative than a positive, generally speaking. However, I don't agree with your use of the term implied odds. To nitpick:

The more opponents he has, the greater his implied odds will be, since there will be more opponents to pay him off on the river when he gets there. However, having opponents behind him does have the potential to hurt his pot odds (or should I say effective odds -- must reread TOP), since someone might raise, causing him to have to put in two bets to see the river.

-- Homer

[Homer]

That`s about how passive these players are. When you do get a read on them, let me know.

Meh, it can be hard to get much more of a read than "loose-passive", but even knowing just that will help you. You'll know to value bet more, bluff less, limp with more marginal hands (since it won't be raised), etc.

I find it interesting that he dared to bet out when the board paired on the river though.

But he made two-pair!

-- Homer

[J.R.]

I meant that this was a clear call, and by questiong the validity of your call you were underestimating your hand.

[ QUOTE ]
So if I`m only counting my clean outs, I`m a bit too tight in some cases?

[/ QUOTE ]

There's no reason to always fear a better hand or great draw in your opponent's hands, as there will not always be a club draw when there are two clubs on the board. People call with crap, thankfully.

[ QUOTE ]
At this site and this limit, the players are mostly very passive. Someone did indeed have a K.


[/ QUOTE ]

In regards to the K all I was pointing out was that deending on the aggressiveness/passiveness of the game, a checked flop may indicate no one has a K. Some consideration has to be given as to whether a 9 or an 8 will give you the best hand, and just becaus someone had a K here does not always mean that will be the case.

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe it`s just me, but when dealing with players that play any 2 cards, many that are so passive that they dare not 3-bet with two pair, how am I suppose to get a read on these?

[/ QUOTE ]

Reads are hard to come by, especially against poor players. But poor players have habits, like playing any A, always check-raising big hands, never betting draws, etc.. Suppose the 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif hits on the river here. There will be opponennts that would never bet the river without a K or 2 pair and you can fold, and there will be loose-aggressive opponents that will bet A high whom you will call. Granted, most players fall in between, and reads are tough, but there is still information out there that you can use to your advantage.

[ QUOTE ]
The somewhat aware players sure, but these total any-2-card-can-win players?

[/ QUOTE ]

While you may not know what they hold preflop, most poor players have somewhat transparent betting patterns if you are observant, and that can be helpful information. There will be times where you will be without much of a clue, but there is often a lot of information that I miss that I realize I missed on reflection.

Good luck, and congrats on being willing to think about this stuff

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
You're likely to have more than 6 outs here, since the flush draw did not come on the flop. If someone has a flush draw, it's of the runner-runner variety, which is a lot less likely.

[/ QUOTE ]

In most cases this is true, with the flop being checked through however it makes it much more likely (though still not enough to really change your play here).

[Homer]

True. When posting I forgot that the flop was checked through.

-- Homer

[rkiray]

If you check the implied odds section of HPFAP (I think the implied odds section of TOP is the worst thing DS ever wrote) they spend most of the time talking about how implied odds hurt you when there are people yet to act. Only the last 1/3 discusses when they help you.

BTW, this is another excellent thread. I can't believe what an excellent start this forum is off to.

[Homer]

Hmmm, it's been a while since I've read TOP or HPFAP. Guess I'll have to check them out again.

-- Homer

[MaxPower]

I think Homer is just nit-picking. Having many opponents increases your implied odds, but if there are many yet to act behind you that decreases your effective odds. I think that anytime you effective odds go down, your implied odds also must go down. That's basically the point you were making.

Uh, I think that is it. I'll reread the chapter tonight.

Good Thread. Long live the micro limits forum!