adios
11-12-2003, 06:33 PM
I agree with many of the points that the author makes in this article. It seems to me that the Saudi ruling family is in a very precarious position at this time. I'd recommend buying some oil and gas related company stock /images/graemlins/cool.gif.
The Saudi Revolution (http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110004291)
AT WAR
The Saudi Revolution
Can Riyadh reform before the royal family falls?
BY DAVID PRYCE-JONES
Wednesday, November 12, 2003 12:01 a.m. EST
"Is it a revolt?" Louis XVI asked in 1789. "No, sire, it is a revolution," answered one of his courtiers. In Saudi Arabia the ruling family has long been presiding over a denial of reality to match that of the Bourbon monarchy. The bombing this weekend in Riyadh, which killed 17 people and wounded over 100, suggests that the thousands of princes who control the wealth of that country have trouble in store.
First, the dead this time are exclusively Arabs and Muslims, mostly Lebanese and Egyptians. Somebody is evidently even more eager to destabilize Saudi Arabia than to kill Americans or Westerners. Richard Armitage, deputy secretary of state, happened to be in Riyadh, and he indulged in some instant guesswork about who did the bombing and why. "It is quite clear to me that al Qaeda wants to take down the royal family and the government of Saudi Arabia." The Saudi ambassador to London, Prince Turki al-Faisal, an influential member of the ruling family and for a number of years head of Saudi intelligence, was equally quick to blame al Qaeda, and was almost surely right.
Second, American intelligence appears to have received prior warning that some such act of terror was imminent. As a precaution, the U.S. Embassy and consulates had been shut. Britain's Foreign Office issued warnings to the British to stay away from the country. And third, this occurs at a moment when the Arab world is having to come to terms with the U.S. campaign in Iraq, and President Bush's insistence on democracy and freedom for everyone.
Everyone, Mr. Bush made clear, includes Saudi Arabia. There, 5,000 or more princes control all power and resources, sharing out ministries and governorships and oil revenues as they see fit. Their idea of democracy is to appoint an advisory council and religious leaders carefully vetted to provide a facade of legitimacy.
Immemorial tribal custom and the local Wahhabi brand of Islam are defended and perpetuated to create the impression that this is the natural order of things. The Shiite minority forms about 20% of the population, but on the grounds that they are not Wahhabis they are arrested without trial, tortured and often disappear. Rights and the rule of law are only what the ruling family says they are. The Saudi family of course has a large and privileged security and police apparatus at its service. No blueprint exists in any of the textbooks for successfully modernizing a society like this one.
In 1979 a group of Wahhabi extremists seized the mosque in Mecca and tried to spark a revolution. Flown in for the purpose, French special forces shot dead every last one of them. Since then, many Saudis, including some in the royal family, have understood that their society's moral and intellectual confusion is bringing about its downfall. But those who understand the problem have had little practical effect. The ruling princes, either because they are too old, too unimaginative or too selfish, have continued on as before, failing to make reforms which might have saved them.
Sept. 11 forced the U.S. and everyone else to recognize that Saudi Arabia has become a danger to itself and the rest of the world. Lest we forget, almost all the hijackers hailed from the kingdom. Individual Saudis, including some princes and their so-called charities, have sponsored--and continue to sponsor--terror groups, including their homegrown al Qaeda, in some 60 countries. Faced with the evidence, the ruling Saudis have preferred to prevaricate, often refusing to share intelligence, hampering investigations and the pursuit of justice.
Those who gave money to al Qaeda were hoping to buy off Osama bin Laden, insuring themselves against him. But that's not easy. Bin Laden wants to return to a tribal Wahhabi society in its purest form. In his eyes, the presence of U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia was sacrilege, and he has been threatening to dethrone the Saudi royal family that permitted it. The relocation of U.S. troops elsewhere in the region removes that particular grievance but also leaves the country to its own devices. The ruling family, bin Laden, the Shiites, groups of dissidents and exiles, and everyone else are quite free to struggle for power as best they can without outside interference.
At this late moment, any suggestion of reform looks like weakness, which only invites more of the violence it aims to disarm. Evidently granting concessions under pressure, the ruling family recently announced that in principle elections could be held for 14 municipal councils. Another unprecedented step was a human rights conference held in mid-October in Riyadh. Hundreds of people took this opportunity to demonstrate, until antiriot police firing tear gas dispersed them. The conference called, among other things, for a greater role for women in a country where they are not allowed to drive a car or even to go out unaccompanied by a male member of the family. "They demand it," in the words of an editorial in an official English-language newspaper, "Saudi Arabia needs it."
There is no right of assembly, but at the same time hundreds of men and women, most of them young, took to the streets of Riyadh to demand democratic and economic reforms, and they called for the release from detention of other activists. Up to 150 protesters were arrested--the exact number of people already kept in jail on grounds of "security" is unknown, but it is in the thousands. "They are a small bunch," said Prince Nayef, who has been interior minister for most of his public life, adding like a true Bourbon. "This won't happen again." In recent days there have been shootouts in Mecca and Riyadh. Five suspected terrorists were killed, but others escaped. Police searches have revealed large caches of arms and ammunition.
Unlike the unfortunate Louis XVI, those 5,000 and more princes have a real stranglehold on power, as well as the will for self-preservation. Their security apparatus may well succeed in maintaining for a while longer the peculiar stagnation cherished by the ruling family. Not indefinitely, though. A revolt that becomes a revolution is an irresistible force that sweeps away what once seemed unmovable objects in its path.
The Saudi Revolution (http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110004291)
AT WAR
The Saudi Revolution
Can Riyadh reform before the royal family falls?
BY DAVID PRYCE-JONES
Wednesday, November 12, 2003 12:01 a.m. EST
"Is it a revolt?" Louis XVI asked in 1789. "No, sire, it is a revolution," answered one of his courtiers. In Saudi Arabia the ruling family has long been presiding over a denial of reality to match that of the Bourbon monarchy. The bombing this weekend in Riyadh, which killed 17 people and wounded over 100, suggests that the thousands of princes who control the wealth of that country have trouble in store.
First, the dead this time are exclusively Arabs and Muslims, mostly Lebanese and Egyptians. Somebody is evidently even more eager to destabilize Saudi Arabia than to kill Americans or Westerners. Richard Armitage, deputy secretary of state, happened to be in Riyadh, and he indulged in some instant guesswork about who did the bombing and why. "It is quite clear to me that al Qaeda wants to take down the royal family and the government of Saudi Arabia." The Saudi ambassador to London, Prince Turki al-Faisal, an influential member of the ruling family and for a number of years head of Saudi intelligence, was equally quick to blame al Qaeda, and was almost surely right.
Second, American intelligence appears to have received prior warning that some such act of terror was imminent. As a precaution, the U.S. Embassy and consulates had been shut. Britain's Foreign Office issued warnings to the British to stay away from the country. And third, this occurs at a moment when the Arab world is having to come to terms with the U.S. campaign in Iraq, and President Bush's insistence on democracy and freedom for everyone.
Everyone, Mr. Bush made clear, includes Saudi Arabia. There, 5,000 or more princes control all power and resources, sharing out ministries and governorships and oil revenues as they see fit. Their idea of democracy is to appoint an advisory council and religious leaders carefully vetted to provide a facade of legitimacy.
Immemorial tribal custom and the local Wahhabi brand of Islam are defended and perpetuated to create the impression that this is the natural order of things. The Shiite minority forms about 20% of the population, but on the grounds that they are not Wahhabis they are arrested without trial, tortured and often disappear. Rights and the rule of law are only what the ruling family says they are. The Saudi family of course has a large and privileged security and police apparatus at its service. No blueprint exists in any of the textbooks for successfully modernizing a society like this one.
In 1979 a group of Wahhabi extremists seized the mosque in Mecca and tried to spark a revolution. Flown in for the purpose, French special forces shot dead every last one of them. Since then, many Saudis, including some in the royal family, have understood that their society's moral and intellectual confusion is bringing about its downfall. But those who understand the problem have had little practical effect. The ruling princes, either because they are too old, too unimaginative or too selfish, have continued on as before, failing to make reforms which might have saved them.
Sept. 11 forced the U.S. and everyone else to recognize that Saudi Arabia has become a danger to itself and the rest of the world. Lest we forget, almost all the hijackers hailed from the kingdom. Individual Saudis, including some princes and their so-called charities, have sponsored--and continue to sponsor--terror groups, including their homegrown al Qaeda, in some 60 countries. Faced with the evidence, the ruling Saudis have preferred to prevaricate, often refusing to share intelligence, hampering investigations and the pursuit of justice.
Those who gave money to al Qaeda were hoping to buy off Osama bin Laden, insuring themselves against him. But that's not easy. Bin Laden wants to return to a tribal Wahhabi society in its purest form. In his eyes, the presence of U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia was sacrilege, and he has been threatening to dethrone the Saudi royal family that permitted it. The relocation of U.S. troops elsewhere in the region removes that particular grievance but also leaves the country to its own devices. The ruling family, bin Laden, the Shiites, groups of dissidents and exiles, and everyone else are quite free to struggle for power as best they can without outside interference.
At this late moment, any suggestion of reform looks like weakness, which only invites more of the violence it aims to disarm. Evidently granting concessions under pressure, the ruling family recently announced that in principle elections could be held for 14 municipal councils. Another unprecedented step was a human rights conference held in mid-October in Riyadh. Hundreds of people took this opportunity to demonstrate, until antiriot police firing tear gas dispersed them. The conference called, among other things, for a greater role for women in a country where they are not allowed to drive a car or even to go out unaccompanied by a male member of the family. "They demand it," in the words of an editorial in an official English-language newspaper, "Saudi Arabia needs it."
There is no right of assembly, but at the same time hundreds of men and women, most of them young, took to the streets of Riyadh to demand democratic and economic reforms, and they called for the release from detention of other activists. Up to 150 protesters were arrested--the exact number of people already kept in jail on grounds of "security" is unknown, but it is in the thousands. "They are a small bunch," said Prince Nayef, who has been interior minister for most of his public life, adding like a true Bourbon. "This won't happen again." In recent days there have been shootouts in Mecca and Riyadh. Five suspected terrorists were killed, but others escaped. Police searches have revealed large caches of arms and ammunition.
Unlike the unfortunate Louis XVI, those 5,000 and more princes have a real stranglehold on power, as well as the will for self-preservation. Their security apparatus may well succeed in maintaining for a while longer the peculiar stagnation cherished by the ruling family. Not indefinitely, though. A revolt that becomes a revolution is an irresistible force that sweeps away what once seemed unmovable objects in its path.