Is this a fair deal?

[SossMan]

I played a $36 NL Hold 'em Tourney at Bay101 yesterday. There are unlimited $20 rebuys for the first 45min. plus one $20 add on. There were about 60 players with about 9 million rebuys and 60 addons.

So I get to the final table suprisingly easily (only one time I had to go all in on a coin flip, my 55 vs AQo and flopped a boat.)
It gets to the final four players. I'm in 2nd chip position w/ about T18,000. Chip leader has about T30,000. 3rd and 4th both have about $12,000.
3rd knocks out 4th so he has like T24,000.
The payouts are as follows:

1st - $1,300
2nd - $750
3rd - $400

I'm offered a deal for the following:
1st place gets $900
2nd gets $875
3rd (me) gets $675

The blinds are 3k - 6k. I'm will be on the button the next hand. The guy in 2nd place is a beginner, but I haven't seen him make any really bad plays. I am definitely better than him. I am about equal with the chip leader in terms of skill (but he has me 2:1 in chips). I took the deal. Good move?

[Stagemusic]

Run quickly to the pay window. The deal is more than fair. You have only about a 50/50 chance to move up to second and even a less chance to move up to the first slot. If you refuse the deal you are possibly giving up $275 if you would finish in your present position. If you did manage to move up and finish second, it is only worth $75 more than what was offered. To me, no brainer.

[Ignatius]

No - you have been taken advantage of. Even by paying 3rd place money for all and splitting the rest according to chip-count - a method which considerably favors the big stacks - you should get $712.50. Adding the fact that you're on the button and consider yourself to be a better player than the 2nd guy, you should not accept a deal which gives you less than 2nd place money. 750/810/890 seems about fair to me. If you cannot get the others to agree to this, then simply refuse and play out the tourney.

[Prickly Pete]

I'd have to run this on the Equity calculator I have at home to give exact numbers on what it should be, but I think you got a good deal and the guy in 2nd (especially if he's a novice) got a great deal.

[Eric P]

He has much better than 50/50 chance to move up to second, he is better than the guy, he is on the button and the guy has to pay 9000 in blinds here. I don't like this deal 275 extra isn't that much, so unless you had like a 600 phone bill that you couldn't otherwise pay you should probably have played this out. You could easily slip into 2nd here by him busting to you or the chip lead, or him just playing too tight and folding up his blinds to you. And obviously you ha ve just as good a chance as them to hit a nice hand, which could double you up right into the chip lead. I'd say play it, maybe you could have just done an extra 100 dollar save or something, but i'd say keep playin. Worst case is you got 360 bucks on the day.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

I agree with Ignatius, it was a mathematically bad deal for you.

You've got 1/4 of the chips. 1/4 of 1300 is $325, your equity in first place money.

I estimate you've got about a 35% chance of finishing second, and a 40% chance of third. That's .35x750 + .40x400, or $422.50. Add in the $325, and your equity is roughly $747.50. I might have overestimated your chances of second and underestimated your chances of third. If we say it's 30% and 45% instead, you get $405 instead of $422.50, for a total equity of $730. Any deal between $725 and 750 is "fair" in a rough sense, so the $675 you got is a bit low.

People often underestimate the true equity of a short stack, and overestimate the equity of a big stack in these deals. That's why I like to be the big stack when we make a deal. ;-)

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Bozeman]

The big stack got essentially the right deal, but the middle stack took about $50 from you.

From simulation:
$902, $823, $725

Craig

PS By the Malmuth Method, which favors small stacks, you get: $896.53,822.22,731.25, not a bad approximation.

PPS So Bay101 now has no limit instead of spread limit? And the tourneys are faster (45 min of rebuy instead of 1 hr)?

[Copernicus]

I agree, second place got the best deal, and you took the worst of it. Doing it by hand I came up with 915,800,735.

[Bozeman]

By hand?

[SossMan]

Greg,
Thanks for responding, I always respect your opinions. Is there a standard calculation taking into consideration chip stacks, payouts, current position, and relative skill? I thought at the time that it was a no brainer, but the more I think about it, I feel that I got a little shafted. I think the big thing here was the relative size of the blinds compared to the stacks, and the fact that I was on the button. I should have played it out.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
PPS So Bay101 now has no limit instead of spread limit? And the tourneys are faster (45 min of rebuy instead of 1 hr)?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, yes, it's spread limit. However, the limits are always 40x BB. They increase so fast that I've never, ever seen the limit come into effect. It plays exactly like no limit. And yes, three rounds of rebuys (15 min each). Add on is during 1st break.

[Bozeman]

Pretty close Greg, I get 28.6 and 46.4 (+- 0.01), not accounting for the advantageous position the small stack has.

Craig

[Bozeman]

Well, this is a change (for the better), since it used to be 10xbb max.

Craig

[Greg (FossilMan)]

The only well accepted standard is that your chances of winning are equal to your percentage of the total chips in play (assuming equal skill among participants). After that, there are mathematical and simulational methods of estimating your chances at each other position. Personally, I just guesstimate my chances of each other position.

As you can see from my other post, unless your guesses are really way off, the end result will be pretty close.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)