CIA Report on security in Iraq : Will Get Worse

[Cyrus]

That Agency better get with the program real soon -- and start producing some nice Reports for a change.

CNN.com news item (http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/meast/11/11/sprj.irq.cia/index.html)

[MMMMMM]

Obviously we need to more aggressively pursue and kill Saddam loyalists in and around Tikrit. We need to play more offense: lock down Tikrit, impose a dusk-to-dawn curfew, conduct house-to-house searches, disarm the populace in the Sunni Triangle; and give Assad one last warning to stop the flow of foreign fighters over the Syriasn border or else. He could put his military on border patrol if he wishes. If he doesn't, it will be time to blow away all the terror training camps in Syria and Lebanon. High noon is fast approaching for Syria.

[andyfox]

Obviously, that Rumsfeld sure is a wimp. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[adios]

As long as the info backs up the party line it's credible I suppose.

[Chris Alger]

"lock down Tikrit"

Lock them up until they learn to appreciate the meaning of "liberation."

[ACPlayer]

... and if they dont kill them or capture them and bring them up on charges at a special tribunal by 2010.

[ACPlayer]

One analysis:
A palpable sense of panic (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/EK14Ak02.html)

[jokerswild]

I'm still expecting that the Admin will allow another attack here in order to re-elect the President.

[ACPlayer]

Another analysis worth reading:

PINR report on Iraq (http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=108&language_i d=1)

The final three para are extracted here:

The continued inability to pacify Iraq reflects the larger problem faced by Washington of successfully interacting with Arab and Muslim societies. Facing countries with values quite contrary to the United States', Washington has failed to provide these societies with a desirable cultural model to follow. Attempts to do so have only enraged Muslim societies and have resulted in a major polarization between the interests of Washington and the interests of these societies.

In light of this, Vice President Dick Cheney's claim that "We are rolling back the terrorist threat at the very heart of its power in the Middle East" could not seem further from the truth. Subsequent surveys by various groups, such as the Pew Research Center, show that hatred toward the United States has been rapidly growing in almost all countries throughout the world, especially Arab and Muslim ones that feel that the "war on terror" is simply a "war on Islam."

This polarization will result in more attacks on U.S. interests abroad and possibly at home. Even individuals like Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld are beginning to question official rhetoric; he admitted in his recent leaked memo that the United States "lack[s] the metrics to know whether we are winning or losing the global war on terror." Because America is too powerful for any state actor to attack, and because hatred for America is spreading across the planet, individuals in a position of relative weakness will use the most effective means of damaging U.S. interests: engaging in terrorist tactics.

[MMMMMM]

Just until we get the Saddam loyalist insurgents.

[Cyrus]

"Now the CIA is a Credible Source of Info on Iraq, eh? As long as the info backs up the party line it's credible I suppose."

I can understand your sarcasm. The CIA and the various black-bag operatives of the American administrations in post-WWII History have been the object of a lot of paranoid and hysterical sentiments. The Left, in particular, sees the CIA behind everything that goes wrong in the world and imagines that there's a mole inside every organisation that criticizes American policy -- which is a touchdown on its own, I suppose, for the spooks!

I happen not to be like this at all (check my posting record, if you want). Going back to the war in Vietnam, the CIA was preparing and submitting, we now know, quite frank and realistic assessements of the situation. Much too frank for Westmoreland, Rusk or LBJ. Liberals were thought to have taken over the goddamn Agency!

The point is this : If the technocrats in the CIA were left alone, they would have a lot to offer. However, political pressure from abovce, either direct or indirect, routinely changes the CIA's reports. Recent case in point is Iraq, whereby the CIA was bullied to get on with the program, IMHO. (Same thing with MI5, in Britain.)

I'm not saying that the CIA is full of woolly-minded peaceniks. Hey, when the course is set, the spooks fall in line and implement strategy sometimes with gusto! I'm saying that the CIA is worth more than what they have allowed it to come up with.

I, for one, consistently pay close attention to everything the spooks have to say, anywhere.

--Cyrus

[andyfox]

"This polarization will result in more attacks on U.S. interests abroad and possibly at home. Even individuals like Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld are beginning to question official rhetoric; he admitted in his recent leaked memo that the United States "lack[s] the metrics to know whether we are winning or losing the global war on terror." Because America is too powerful for any state actor to attack, and because hatred for America is spreading across the planet, individuals in a position of relative weakness will use the most effective means of damaging U.S. interests: engaging in terrorist tactics."


I questioned, at the beginning, whether the Iraq invasion made us safer or more vulnerable. I hope I was wrong, and that the blowback will not be lethal.

[Chris Alger]

It is extremely probative when the government's internal, secret assessments betray a pessimism that contradicts its more vague, rosy public pronouncements. The same logic that under evidence law makes admissions of a party opponent and declarations against interest exceptions to normal rule against admittting hearsay. That this particular report is taken very seriously is further evidenced by the White House calling Bremer back to the U.S. to discuss a more rapid transition to Iraqi self-governance, according to numerous media reports. People of common sense understand this, which is one reason the administration hasn't even admitted the existence of the CIA's report.