NLHE river decision: is this one obvious?

[Guy McSucker]

Not sure if this is an easy or hard decision!

Pokerstars $50 NLHE tournament. It's early, so there are almost the full 75 players left and the stacks are around 1500, with the exception of mine which is close to 3000 because I got lucky first hand.

Blinds 15-30. I am in BB with the monster A-2 offsuit. A couple limp, someone makes it 60, couple of callers, and I decide to call. There is no further raise.

Flop comes A-9-4 rainbow. Checked around, preflop raiser makes a minimum bet of 30, there's a caller, and I call. Everyone else folds.

Turn 7. Check, min bet, call, I call again.

River 5. I check, bettor bets the pot, around 500. The player in between folds.

Is there an easy decision here, or is it a tough one?

Guy.

[Guy McSucker]

See, now I thought this one was completely straightforward from start to finish, but some onlookers and others at the table couldn't believe my play.

Preflop I don't really like my hand - could well be dominated - but for 30 more why not call?

On the flop, I think I am either way in front or almost dead. I have enough chips to play it slowly and carefully and see what's going on. With top pair no kicker, I can't fold to a minimum flop bet; on the other hand I don't want to raise because I will likely only get action if I am losing, so I call. Same reasoning on the turn.

On the river, suddenly this guy wakes up and makes a big bet. I reasoned that neither of his opponents had done anything to suggest they might call a big bet, so he could not have been value betting here. That is to say, he wants me to fold.

I disappointed him and called, and he showed Q-10 for no pair.

Cries of "amazing call" and "how can you stand all that action with no kicker?" really bemused me. As I say, I thought it was a straightforward hand of poker, but then I began to wonder if I had played the hand like an idiot and got lucky.

What do you all think?

Guy.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

There is absolutely no hand that the bettor could have to intelligently make the bets and raises he made. As such, he's a moron (at least as far as playing poker goes), and it's impossible to definitively put him on a hand.

That being the case, you probably call because it's at least as likely he's bluffing as it is that he's got you beat. If you do lose, expect it to be to a rivered set or a rivered gutshot straight, NOT a hand that had you beat on the flop.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[CrisBrown]

Guy,

You read him right. There was no way he had 86 (giving him the straight) unless he's unbelievably moronic. I doubt he has Ax because he bet it too weakly on the flop and turn. So he probably has some high cards, is reading you for an unmade draw, and has decided to try to steal a pot. Oops.

This goes to something Che wrote in another thread about the art of bluffing plausibly. When debating whether to bluff after the flop, turn, or river, you have to stop and ask yourself: "Have I played this pot consistent with the hand I'd be representing on this bluff?" Here are a couple of examples -- one good, one bad -- from my own play:

GOOD -- I'm in the CO. With one limper ahead of me, I make it 5xBB. SB and limper call. The flop is A-K-4. Small blind bets minimum, limper calls, and I call. Turn is K, for board of A-K-4-K. Small blind bets minimum, limper raises the pot, and I reraise the pot. After a long pause, the SB folds, and the limper folds and shows AQ. SB says he had K4. Both of them had put me on AK, because of the pre-flop raise and the smooth-call on the flop. Actually, I had 75os. (Note: This was an Ultimate Point SNG, and I was experimenting with different kinds of hands, because I'd been playing way too tight for the two weeks prior to that.)

BAD -- Early in a SNG, I raise to 3xBB in mid-position, and get two callers. The flop is A-2-2. It's checked to me; I push all-in. One player folds, the other thinks for a few seconds and calls me with AK. I have 99. Then the caller says to me: "Cris, I know you. You wouldn't have made that preflop raise on pocket 2s, or any 2x hand. So you didn't have a 2, and I figured I either had your AQ outkicked, or a split on AK, or Aces to a middle pair."

Most of us try to think "What hands would justify how this opponent has played this pot?" In deciding when to bluff, we have to ask that same question from the other side ... or a good opponent will sniff out the bluff in a heartbeat.

Cris

[45Player]

Cris

Good post, it has certainly put me thinking.
However, I have a small quibble with your ‘GOOD’ example.
I don’t see how your opponents can put you on AK on the turn.
You would never reraise with AK in this position.
Surely you would ‘reluctantly’ call ?
Why would you take the play away from your opponents ?

[CrisBrown]

Hiya 45Player,

I think their reasoning -- and the reasoning I hoped they would use -- was that I'd hit top boat and wanted to double up (reraising the pot put me almost all-in). If I'd hit top boat on the flop (or, as I was representing, top two-pair), then yes, I make a crying call because the deck is crippled and I want people to have time to catch up. But once someone does catch up and makes a substantial bet, I want to get the biggest pot possible ... thus the reraise.

I should note that I knew both of the players involved, and knew them to be strong players who could make tough folds. I would NOT have tried this move against unknown players or players I knew to be average or less, because they'd never have laid down the hands.

Which is another element of the art of bluffing: don't bluff fish. If they have anything at all, they're usually going to call. That's why value bets work so well against them.

And that's another reason I tend to be more cautious in the early rounds of a tournament: I can't bluff the fish off a hand. In the later stages, when most of the fish have already been eaten, I can make some more aggressive moves.

Cris

[45Player]

Hi Cris

I don’t want to labour the point but I’m still not convinced by your play here.
Firstly, I think the limper played pretty poorly, he shouldn’t have got involved in that pot when the King hit the turn and he was facing a bet.

[ QUOTE ]
I should note that I knew both of the players involved, and knew them to be strong players who could make tough folds. I would NOT have tried this move against unknown players or players I knew to be average or less, because they'd never have laid down the hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Suppose you DO have AK, and you reraise as described. You’re right, a weak player will never lay down K4 because he will not even think about what you might have, he will just see his own strong hand, and call. A weak player might even call with AQ reasoning that he has the best kicker ! Therefore you cannot try this move with 75o against a weak player.
However if you reraise as described, I maintain that a strong player will also call you, but for a DIFFERENT reason. He will say to himself that you cannot have AK because you would want the SB to call the limper’s raise and so you would just call yourself. Also you would not raise a raiser with AK. You would hope that he would make another bet on the river.
If you have AK then you want to maximize your winnings on the hand, and I feel a reraise ensures that you will win only the minimum amount possible.

Just my thoughts, I’m open to criticism.

Regarding your point about not bluffing fish. Unfortunately I learned that the hard way.

Regards

45player

[Guy McSucker]

This discussion is quite important I think. It's really all about people, isn't it?

It is very important to identify those players who can convince themselves that you don't have the big hand you are representing because "surely you would slowplay that!", which is what 45Player is talking about. Once you know who they are, you don't make the kind of move Cris is talking about, and you do bet monster hands throughout the deal.

Playing straightforwardly for deception is great fun! The first time I ever played a live cash PL game, I flopped a house in the blind with 6-4 or something. I was playing scared and didn't want to get outdrawn and trapped, so I just bet the pot and got three callers. The turn was an overcard, I bet the pot again, which was all-in or close to it, and got two callers. When I turned over my hand at the end, my callers were surprised, to say the least: "How can you bet that? It's a monster! If you just bet you won't get any action..."

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

Guy.

[t_perkin]

I don´t play at $50 so I am probably way out of my league, but if he is making min raises preflop in MP (is he in MP?)with QT (offsuit?) then is he just juicing the pot? someone doing this could equally be doing the same with A5s or maybe 55?
Sure, he shouldn't be putting in minimum raises (should you ever!?) with A5s or 55 but then he shouldn´t be with QT either.

You have the stack though, and even if he does have you beat 50% of the time you are right to call. Plus you aren´t going to get many people bluffing at you when you make spot-on calls like that.

I don´t think you are a dead cert. to win the hand. But you made the right move I think. wp.

Tim