Hand reading Exercise

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Everyone:

Here's a hand I played earlier this evening in a $30-$60 game at The Bellagio. See if you can figure out my opponent's hand.

A loose player limped in from an early position, I raised with 10/images/graemlins/heart.gif10/images/graemlins/club.gif from late position, and an unknown player who had just recently sat down called from the big blind, and the three of us saw the flop for two bets each.

The flop came A/images/graemlins/club.gifK/images/graemlins/diamond.gif6/images/graemlins/spade.gif. It was checked to me, I bet, the player in the big blind called, and the original limper folded.

The turn was the Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif. We both checked.

The river was the 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif. We both checked and then my opponent immediately threw his hand away conceding the pot to me.

So again the question is, what was his hand?

Best wishes,
mason

[gaylord focker]

Pretty tough. At first I was thinking he had a broadway draw, but then the Queen hit and he still mucked his hand. I think he would have turned over a pair, so I say he was a bad player and called you on the flop with 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif, hoping to pick up some kind of draw on the turn. It's the only thing that makes sense to me.

[Bob S.]

Well...seeings as to how I'm pretty loaded right now my best guess is it was a pretty big pile of trash to just throw it away on the river even after you checked the turn. My best guess would be something like a 45 suited of one of the flopped suits.

Bob S.

[Rick Nebiolo]

Mason,

The forum is so full of good stuff these days and I have so little time that I'm having an anxiety attack thinking about how much good stuff I'm missing. So I log on and am confronted with this.

I don't have a clue. Nothing makes sense. I'm hoping you made a typo /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Regards,

Rick

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
so I say he was a bad player and called you on the flop with 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

This is weird. I read the hand and said, well, I guess he had something like 7s8s. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Howard Burroughs]

I'm with Gaylord & company. He has no pair. I'll put him on 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

H.B.

[PokerPrince]

My first thought was 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

PokerPrince

[bugstud]

Couldn't he have a 6? Granted his river auto-muck is pretty bad, but it seems possible to me.

[CrackerZack]

I originally thought something like T9s or 98s, but why does he call the flop only to concede from then on? If he's calling the flop and planning on making a move at the pot, that's one thing, but to call and just concede. But he wouldn't auto-muck any pair after the turn and river going check-check. So the only thing that does make sense, is something like 98s with him planning to make a move on the pot on the turn, but when you check behind, he missed his move and knows you'll call 1 bet on the river, so he gives up.

[David Steele]

I haven't looked at the others.
4 and 5 of spades.

D.

[Diplomat]

Hi Mason,

He has no pair; he would have show his hand.

Same goes for Jack or Ten high -- I think he might have flipped over his hand, on the off-chance you had raised with something like 89s or whatever, trying to isolate the early position player and make a play on them.

So the turbo-muck on the river must mean something that is total crap. I'd venture a guess at a tiny suited hand, suited in line with one of the cards on the board; something like 57 of diamonds, clubs or spades. More likely would be something like 34 or 45 suited, which gives him a backdoor shot at picking up a flush and/or straight draw. (the ace acting as a wheel card)

I'll guess 34s, with the suits either spades, clubs, or diamonds.

-Diplomat

[Franchise (TTT)]

I guess I'm in the minority in that I put him on some sort of weakly played pocket pair, maybe 99. All the overcards hitting made him lose confidence in the hand, seeing as you had to have something to bet the flop.

[tpir90036]

had he not conceded the pot i would have set 88 or 77. him conceding the pot makes it obvious he had nothing to show down at all.... so my vote would be for some crappy connector that went nowhere...put me down for 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[Duke]

34c

[eugeneel]

I think exactly the same thing. I think we have this one figured out!

He may have been aiming fo a checkraise if the turn made his hand into an openended straight or a flush draw.
Poor play no matter how one lookes at it.

[Mike Gallo]

So again the question is, what was his hand?

Mason,

I do not know what he could have had that he would call a preflop raise and a flop bet with and then not even showdown.

I would put him on a pocket pair smaller than yours. Although I do not play 30-60 I just cannot believe someone would play 6-8 for a raise.

Did you get to see what he had?

[doggin]

I put him on 9 J, but I'd like to know, if he had bet the turn, what would you have done?
Thanks

[Josh W]

What do we know about the big blind? We know that in the evening, he just sat down. That's about it.

We can, therefore, safely assume, that he just came from dinner. He also is not a local, as Mason doesn't know him.

Okay...just came from dinner, and from out of town. This was during the middle of the week, so he's likely not just vacationing, but maybe in town for a conference.

So, it's pretty obvious he's not a bigtime player. He's an out-of-towner, there for fun.

He sits down, and immediately picks up pocket aces, red. He knows this is a good hand, because he's smart enough to be attending a conference. He recognizes Mason, and thinks "I'm just gonna outplay him, this hand". Well, he flops a fantasy, and knows he should wait to the turn to raise. Since Mason bet the flop, and a big card came on the turn, he knows that Mason will surely bet the turn. Afterall, Mason raised preflop and bet the flop, so a turn bet will definitely follow.

When Mason tricks the BB by checking, he (the BB) knows that Mason will SURELY bet on the river....either as a value bluff or a bet (errr, value bet or a bluff). Mason checks again.

Our friend the tourist at a conference recognizes he's been thoroughly outplayed. He knows that he should have won much more with this hand, and he knows that he isn't playing for money, but for taking shots at the greats of the game.

And he knows that the shame he'll endure by tabling his cards just isn't worth this menial little pot. So he mucks, face down, to save face.

And his hand was good.

Josh

[Duke]

No wonder Mason's been running well for so long.

I think perhaps he had the same 2 tens that Mason did, being the God of Gamblers and all. If he showed, well, everyone would know that he could make the cards change and then he'd get banned from the game.

~D

[mikelow]

A small pocket pair, IMO. Would he call the flop with J-9, needing runner-runner (or a jack?) Doubtful, as I'm not sure a jack is an out (as it turns out, it is).

So I'm putting him on something like pocket threes.

[Duke]

I don't know if he mucks 33 without showing.

~D

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi doggin:

I think you should fold if he bets the turn. You may only be drawing to split the pot.

Best wishes,
Mason

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi MG:

If he has a small pair, he would have some chance to win at the river. Thus he should hold his hand.

best wishes,
Mason

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Rick:

Thanks for the nice comments

[ QUOTE ]
I don't have a clue. Nothing makes sense. I'm hoping you made a typo


[/ QUOTE ]

I hear the games at The Bike are extremely good. Is that still the case? /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Best wishes,
Mason

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Everyone:

This one's fairly easy and I see that some of you got it right. When my opponent throws his hand away it means that he has absolutely no chance of winning. So eight high is probably as good as his hand can be.

But he must have had something that he perceived as having value to make the call on the flop. This can only leave a holding like a three flush and a three straight. 75 suited or 54 suited look like very good candidates.

Best wishes,
Mason

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
I hear the games at The Bike are extremely good. Is that still the case?

[/ QUOTE ]

Poker is definitely on the upswing while the Asian section struggles (the Asian games struggle all over town as the Indian Casinos get closer with similar games). Certain key games struggle but 20/40 stud/8, 30/60 OE, and 10/20 holdem are all doing well along with Yosh Nokano's big game. We are now getting regular restricted buy in ($100) no limit games every day. These are no limit games that don't burn up the players; rather they attract new customers turned on by the WPT.

The green chip games are also doing better and the casino is generally full nights and weekends. I'm hoping we can make further improvements on the collection front (i.e., get rid of front loading on drop in low limit) and that should help things even more.

Regards,

Rick

[mike l.]

"But he must have had something that he perceived as having value to make the call on the flop. This can only leave a holding like a three flush and a three straight. 75 suited or 54 suited look like very good candidates."

how far from incorrect was his call? about how many small bets would you say would need to be in the pot for him to make this call if he were closing the action? and how about much of a chance would he need to have to bet or checkraise you off your hand to add value to this clearly incorrect but interesting to think about call?

[mikelow]

Wouldn't a double backdoor draw be only an 8 or 9% chance?

So the call made by Mason's opponent was a bad one. No wonder he's running so good. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[Coilean]

mike,

You make a winning hand about 10% of the time with a hand like 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif5/images/graemlins/spade.gif here, so you need to make back 10 times your investment to make a call profitable. Assuming you don't make any semibluff raises or anything and your opponent bets the turn 80% of the time, calling the flop leads to a correct turn call (turned flush and/or open ended straight draw) on 16 cards, which means you are on average paying 1SB + 16/47*80%*2SB = 1.54SB to see the river. So, in this case you should want about 10*1.54SB = 15.4SB in the pot on the flop to call 1 more bet exclusively on the 3 straight/flush with no top pair potential.

As for semibluffing, if you can pick up the pot 30% of the time with a turn bet when one of the 16 good cards hits, and all other factors hold constant (i.e. you would have gotten a free card 20% of the time), then could look at this as adding an effective 0.3(16/47)(+7.7SB) - 0.7(16/47(0.2)(2SB)) = 0.69SB to the pot in implied odds, which doesn't really change the equation much. In reality, it shouldn't even add this much since sometimes your semibluff will get raised and you will have to call with your 8-15 outs.

[Mason Malmuth]

[ QUOTE ]
Poker is definitely on the upswing while the Asian section struggles (the Asian games struggle all over town as the Indian Casinos get closer with similar games).

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Rick:

That's good to hear. Years ago when I lived in LA it was during the time that the Asian games first appeared and I saw the damage that they did to the regular poker games. It's good to hear that the pendulum is finally moving the other way.

Best wishes,
Mason

[Diplomat]

Sorry for being clueless, but what are "asian games"?

-Diplomat

[JasonM]

So we know that we know nothing about the Big Blind, this means that he could have any two cards. We do not know if he knows anything about the wasy Mason plays. I think we can pretty much rule out any pair since he probably would not have mucked. Therefore, more than likely he had some type of draw, 3 to the straight and or 3 to the flush. The most likely hands then would be J9s, T9s, 78s, 75s, 45s. I would guess 78s.

[DanS]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry for being clueless, but what are "asian games"?

-Diplomat

[/ QUOTE ]

Diplomat,
Out here in California, where it's not quite cold enough to freeze a puck yet, our larger card barns are divided into the "poker side," and the "Asian games side," i.e., pai gow poker, pai gow tiles, and Pan 9 (IOW, games where you have to be the bank to be +ev)..

Dan

P.S. I'm not bitching about the fact that it's cold enough to freeze a puck in ON right now...I reffed five hockey games tonight and the ice sucked! /images/graemlins/tongue.gif /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[Rick Nebiolo]

Diplomat,

Generally, "Asian Games" are games such as Pai Gow (played with tiles), Pai Gow Poker, Super Pan Nine, and similar variants. In the larger card clubs they have their own section. In the past they accounted for about 40% of the floor space and perhaps 70% of the revenue. There is some crossover play, and sometimes the "live one" in your poker game will spend his 30 minutes away from the table playing super pan nine in an attempt to get even.

Years ago there was one day when law enforcement shut down these games. That day the holdem games were absolutely wild.

~ Rick

[Rick Nebiolo]

Dan,

Sorry, I went right from my mail to the forum to answer Diplomats question. You of course already had the right answer.

~ Rick

[Rick Nebiolo]

Mason,

I agree that the Asian games have hurt poker but these games have been the most profitable part of the card clubs business. Now that the Indian casinos are hurting this part of the business in particular the card clubs have a greater incentive to find some legal way (the most likely being a successful lawsuit) to get the kind of games the Indian casinos have. For the most part that means slots.

In greater Los Angeles, slots and poker won't co-exist if slots became legal. The gaming floor space is so limited and the demand for slots so great that poker tables would disappear overnight.

With California being in such terrible financial circumstances, don’t be surprised if Governor Arnold (I will have to learn to spell his last name) cuts a deal with Indian tribes to put casinos near downtowns as long as the state gets a big piece of the action. Unfortunately, the societal damage caused by putting Las Vegas style gambling near poor neighborhoods will be huge so in the end the state will come out behind.

States such as Connecticut (home of Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun) benefit greatly from these huge Indian Casinos because these casinos are located in a relatively unpopulated corner of the state and largely draw from Massachusetts, Rhode Island and to a lesser extent New York. New England as a whole pays the price (and I believe there is a price to pay when Las Vegas style gambling can be found a few minutes away from most of the nation’s population). BTW, unlike Connecticut, California won’t have a net gain from the expansion of Indian gaming. Most of the customers will be from California and these customers will suffer most of the losses, causing some sort of burden on the taxpaying public.

Regards,

Rick

[Diplomat]

Hi Rick and Dan,

that's what I thought. We have them up here, and are by far the biggest part of the casinos. (although slots may rival them)

The slots are killer -- besides the considerations you mentioned, they put them right beside the cardroom in one particular casino up here. Not exactly a quiet working environment.

-Diplomat

[nykenny]

34s for sure /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[DanZ]

Mason,

I read this post, and then I thought "how are we supposed to know if he has 45s, 78s, or 57s? This isn't fair! He's tricking us.

I thought hand reading puzzles had to have, exact, snappy asnwers, like JTs or AdKd. This is very unsettling...

Dan Z.