bet out or check-call this river?

[SoBeDude]

I hate posting AA hands. I think AA usually plays on autopilot. Its an easy ram-n-jam preflop, and keep betting until someone tells you your beat. but...

Party 10-20. 2 bad players, rest average. I'm new to the table

Table has been tight by party standards, on average, about 3 in a pot. not a lot of PF raising. very few players are calling a PF raise.

Then I get AA in EMP. UTG folds, next 2 call, I'm next and raise. Then something amazing happens. all call except the CO and the button. So we suddenly have 7 players playing for 2 bets each PF, and much of the field has called 2 cold.

Flop is 7 7 4 rainbow

Checked to me, I bet. We lose only 2. I'm not happy as there is no real draw out there (except 56).

Turn is J, completing the rainbow. Still no decent draws.

Checked to me, I bet waiting for the raise by the player with a 7. Instead I just get 3 callers.

River is a King.

Given how many players saw the flop, is it better to check and call a bet or to bet out?

I didn't want to call a raise to get to the showdown. If I bet and got raised of course I'd call, as the pot is plenty large and there is a good chance I have the best hand. But with so many seeing the flop, there is a strong chance someone slowplayed trip 7's. I think this is actually a perfect board to slowplay and wait for the river to raise trips as there are few bad free cards with no straight or flush draws out.

(Of course there is some possiblility that I could induce a bet by someone who would not have called my bet.)

So I checked, player in LMP bet, EP player called, and I called. My hand was good.

comment appreciated

-Scott

[rigoletto]

You only fear one hand on the river: KJ, so it's a clear value bet IMO!

Given the texture of the table I'd guess that you are up against pocket pairs and maybe AK/AQ.

[SoBeDude]

why would I fear KJ? his two pair loses to mine.

The only hand I really fear is 7x

-Scott

[elindauer]

I believe you'll show a greater profit by betting, though I suspect it's close. I've recently seen several excellent discussions on value-betting out of position. All those callers are scary, but they may hold pocket pairs, overcards which have now paired up, etc.

Note that it can be correct to bet when out-of-position, even if the play is -EV. This is because checking and calling may be even worse, if you feel there is much risk of the hand being checked through when you are in fact good.

Good luck.

Eric

[rigoletto]

Ups you're right. Well this just makes the valuebet even better. Why would you fear 7x here? I would guess that the others showed you 66 and AK.

But with so many seeing the flop, there is a strong chance someone slowplayed trip 7's. I think this is actually a perfect board to slowplay and wait for the river to raise trips as there are few bad free cards with no straight or flush draws out.

I can see somebody slowplay the flop, but not the turn! And Scott I've noticed this in other posts of yours: you have a tendency to put people on monsters when you see multiple callers, regardles of the action.

[OrangeHeat]

Bet, Bet, and Bet. It's not likely anyone has a seven. If you get raised definitely call.

You may even get raised by someone playing overcards through the hand that hit their K earning an extra bet or two for you.

Orange

[CrackerZack]

Welcome back Scott, you have to bet here. when no one shouted, "I'm the man with the 7" on the turn, you've got to think you're good. You bet here and definitely pay off a raise. you'll be called by a K, probably by a J and possibly raised by KJ. If the raiser has a 7, he probably has 2 of them and there is little you can do.

[CrackerZack]

Welcome to the board. Your location inspired me to change the picture by my name.

[OrangeHeat]

Thank you! We miss Melo already /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Orange

[Ulysses]

Did you consider checkraising the river?

[SoBeDude]

no. why should I consider it?

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
no. why should I consider it?


[/ QUOTE ]

Because nobody has a seven and with all those callers, someone's likely to bet either a Jack or a King.

How many hands do you play when someone flops trips and doesn't raise on either the flop or turn?

Bet, call, call, call.
Bet, call, call, call.

That makes you think someone has trips? It's not that easy to flop trips. There are relatively few hands that most players will play that contain a seven. Few players will go two streets w/ trips w/out raising. Put all that together and I find it highly unlikely that someone has trips here.

I'll usually bet out on the river here, but if I feel confident someone will bet it, I'll definitely consider going for a checkraise. The King is scary for the guy with a Jack, though, so betting is probably better.

[SoBeDude]

Because nobody has a seven and with all those callers, someone's likely to bet either a Jack or a King.

Why? As I said in my initial post, there are really no draws out there. people are either staying with overcards or a 7.

There are relatively few hands that most players will play that contain a seven.

Not on Party. Any A7 K7 Q7 67 78 seems to get played, even out of position...usually sooted.

Few players will go two streets w/ trips w/out raising.

True, but I mentioned that this is one of the few boards where I think it would be right to slowplay to the river, to keep the others in the hand.

But perhaps I'm giving my opponents too much credit?

-Scott

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Not on Party. Any A7 K7 Q7 67 78 seems to get played, even out of position...usually sooted.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK.


[ QUOTE ]
But perhaps I'm giving my opponents too much credit?


[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. Guys that play K7 pre-flop typically don't play all that well post-flop.

[Jeffage]

This is an easy bet as you will be called by many worse hands. A seven would likely raise the turn with all those callers. Also, QJ is a typical hand for party players to call the turn with...basically they know u dont have a 7 so they will call with any overcards.

Jeff