Fold QQ overpair for one bet on flop?

[Homer]

Two limpers, (loose and quite passive) button raises, I three-bet from the SB with QQ, one limper calls, button caps, limper and I call. Three to the flop for 14 SB's.

Flop - 5c 5d 6s

I check, limper bets, button raises, I fold...

Is this a routine fold against a typically passive player?

-- Homer

p.s. - If the limper had checked and the button bet, I would have folded for single bet, getting 15:1. Flame away.

[rkiray]

I can understand the fold for two bets, looks like you may be up against a set and AA. For a single bet it's really close but I think you can call. You need to get 4 big bets on the turn and river to justify the call. If you check raise the turn, I think you could get them. (This is all assuming there is a Q on the turn, you would of course fold otherwise).

[GuyOnTilt]

Is this a routine fold against a typically passive player?

Yes. I've never been in this situation, but a fold here is correct. The subject of your post is a little deceiving though, since you were faced with 2 bets, not one, but I'm sure you'll defend yourself by saying that you were faced with the equivalent of one big bet. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Joe Tall]

I think it's a great fold. Given your read on the button, I think you are behind KK or AA.

I've made folds like this in the past. Granted they are rare (thus the post, I assume) but no and then you have to make folds like this.

It will be intesting to see the results.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[rkiray]

Actually he mentioned that he would fold for a single bet, and I believe that is the more intersting question.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I don't think it's horrible, but I just was at a 3/6 Party table last night where people were regularly capping with A9s and such, so that may explain why my brain is short-circuiting thinking about the fold. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Homer]

The subject of your post is a little deceiving though, since you were faced with 2 bets, not one, but I'm sure you'll defend yourself by saying that you were faced with the equivalent of one big bet.

Note the p.s. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

I thought that the fold for two bets was easily correct, but I wasn't sure what others would think of folding an overpair for 1 small bet, getting 15:1.

-- Homer

[Bob T.]

Ok, here your fold is OK, but I don't like the fold for 1 small bet getting 15-1 unless you are very very certain of your read. But you knew that already, and you must have been that certain.

[Aces McGee]

Homer

Could you be more specific about your read on the button? You say he was passive. When you raised, what range of hands did you put him on?

Aces McGee

[GuyOnTilt]

Those darn ps's's...'s. I always miss 'em. If you mean folding for one bet if the Button capper just called on the flop, no, I don't think that'd be good. But if the Button was the flop bettor, then it could be brilliant, and since your read is super passive, then I would love it if you could do it. I don't think I could though. I'd raise and if reraised, call and fold on the turn if I missed. But I'm just an undisciplined young punk.

[Bob T.]

I think the range went from AA, all the way down to KK, but KK was less likely.

[rharless]

To discuss your PS --
Do you think you can't profit 4BB if you turn a Q?

If you are _absolutely_ sure of your read, and do not think you can get 4BB on turn/river streets, then sure, it's a good fold. But you really have to spot-on with your read, else the fold is uber-icky.

In summary, I think that if you are indeed correct to fold, it is really just marginally correct. But, if you are incorrect to fold, it is significantly incorrect.

(Note, all of this assumes you would play the turn correctly, if when certain of your 2-out read, that you would fold for 9-1 or 10-1 odds. If you'd just be re-calling the turn and river ignorant of your read, then my answer would change.)

[Homer]

Could you be more specific about your read on the button? You say he was passive. When you raised, what range of hands did you put him on?

Do you mean when I three-bet preflop? At that point I put him on TT-AA/AK. He was passive, but not overly so when putting in the first raise preflop. After he capped, I was nearly certain he had QQ-AA, as I had seen him slow down with AK and was fairly certain he would do the same with JJ/TT. So, if my read is correct, there is a 12/13 chance that I am behind and 1/13 chance that I am chopping. I'm not getting good enough effective odds to call the hand down, and I'm not getting good enough pot+implied odds to take one off (though it is close), so I would fold.

-- Homer

[Homer]

If you mean folding for one bet if the Button capper just called on the flop, no, I don't think that'd be good.

No, definitely not. If that had happened, I would have check-raised.

But if the Button was the flop bettor, then it could be brilliant, and since your read is super passive, then I would love it if you could do it.

Right, this is what I meant. I should have been more clear.

I don't think I could though. I'd raise and if reraised, call and fold on the turn if I missed. But I'm just an undisciplined young punk.

That's actually my standard play, but this time I was so confident in my read (and for some reason finally willing to act on it) that I had my mouse hovering over the fold button, ready to lay it down. I didn't want to give myself a chance for logic to take over (brain to homer - "wtf are you doing folding an overpair for one bet getting 15:1?!").

-- Homer

[Homer]

Do you think you can't profit 4BB if you turn a Q?

No, I don't think I could. To make myself more clear, I was referring to the possibility of the button betting out and me being faced with a single bet. I believe that folding is best here, as I'll likely pick up two big bets on the turn (check-raise) and one on the river (bet). I believe that if I bet out on the turn, my opponent would not raise with KK/AA, so there would be no chance to three-bet and get in a total of four bets. Also, there is some chance that even if I did turn a Q, my opponent might river a K/A, so really I'd have to earn more than 4 BB's on average.

In summary, I think that if you are indeed correct to fold, it is really just marginally correct. But, if you are incorrect to fold, it is significantly incorrect.

Right. And this is why I usually play the hand in the fashion that GOT suggested (check-raise the flop and if three-bet check-fold the turn, assuming you miss). However, I was almost 100% sure that I was correct this time.

-- Homer

[Aces McGee]

That's what I figured.

What is the reasoning behind calling the cap? I mean, I'd obviously do it, too, but if you're that sure of your read...well, you're not getting odds for your queen, are you?

Just something I was thinking about. I'd call the preflop cap 100% of the time here, but I do remember someone (I think it was KurnSonofMogh--sorry, Kurn, if it wasn't you) who said he had three-bet and folded to a cap once because he knew the player would never cap without AA.

Aces McGee

[Homer]

What is the reasoning behind calling the cap? I mean, I'd obviously do it, too, but if you're that sure of your read...well, you're not getting odds for your queen, are you?

I'm getting 13:1 to call one more bet, with odds against spiking a set of 7.5:1. Some of the time I'll spike a set and my opponent will as well, but I'm getting more than enough of an overlay to cover the instances in which that happens. It sucks that I've put in three bets only to find out that my opponent has AA/KK, but I can't look back. Those bets are already in the pot. If I had know he had AA/KK sooner, I wouldn't have put any bets into the pot. But I did, and now I'm getting odds to call, so I'll call.

Just something I was thinking about. I'd call the preflop cap 100% of the time here, but I do remember someone (I think it was KurnSonofMogh--sorry, Kurn, if it wasn't you) who said he had three-bet and folded to a cap once because he knew the player would never cap without AA.

Actually, I think someone here said that someone at their table said that and everyone else at the table agreed (except that person).

-- Homer

[Aces McGee]

I miscounted the bets in the pot. Sorry.

Thanks for taking the time to respond.

Aces McGee

[rkiray]

The key issue here is what's your read on the limper. I couldn't find this discussed anywhere. If he's a calling station, then I think you might get the 4 BBs by check raising the turn if you hit (I was assuming in my first post that he would call a check raise). If you think he would almost always fold to a check raise then I agree with you play. If he's a calling station, I think you should call the one bet.