Running into a set

[pokerlover]

2 of the last 4 tournaments that I have played in I have run into sets with top pair and either top kicker or 2nd top kicker. Once was A-J running into 7's and the other was A-Q running into 7's. Both were raised by myself pre-flop and called. They were both in the middle of tournies and we both had above average stacks. When I raise it is almost always 3x BB. Is this something that I should be more aware of? Should I raise more. Should I lay down to the re-raise?

[Prickly Pete]

Avoid betting on flops with a 7. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Actually, I have this problem too if I get TPTK and run into a set, I have a hard time letting it go. I guess the best thing to do is to hopefully know your opponent and get out at the sign of real pressure. Again, easier said than done.

[bushky]

Is it possible you are over rating TPTK? You will also lose sometimes to 2 pair, and/or unless its AK with an Ace up be vulnerable to AA, KK, on down to whatever dominates your top pair?

bushky

[pokerlover]

In the 2 instances I have referenced, the board has been very uncoordinated. AA or KK or QQ may be a possibilty on the AJ hand. I though about it and didn't put either oppenent on those hands. In the A-Q hand I felt that I was against a weaker Ace and probably would have made the same play. In the A-J hand I should have layed that down with my 20-20 hindsight.

[CrisBrown]

Hi pokerlover,

Sets to an opponent's pocket pair are the hardest reads in hold'em, no doubt about it. That's why they can pay so well when you hit one.

As BFBanks says, this is a matter of playing the person. When you put in a substantial bet on TPTK, or two two-pair, or something similar, and someone comes crashing in over the top of you, you have to take a pause, look at the board, and ask yourself three questions:

(1) What kind of player is this?
(2) What hands can beat me?
(3) How likely is it that THIS opponent would have played one of those hands this way pre-flop?
(4) How much do I want to risk to find out?

(1) Because they're memorable, I'll use Phil Hellmuth's animal types to describe the basic styles: Mouse (tight-passive, "rock"), Elephant (loose-passive, "calling station"), Jackal (loose-aggressive, "maniac"), and Lion (tight-aggressive, "stone killer").

(2) In all cases, you have AK and raised 3xBB pre-flop with one caller. In all cases, the flop is A-9-3 rainbow (i.e.: no straight or flush draws on board). In all cases, you bet the pot on the flop with TPTK. The hands that can beat you are AA, 99, 33, A9, A3, or 93.

(3)(a) Manny the Mouse reraises. He is tight-passive, a "rock," which means he almost never takes chances. He has either AA, 99, 33, or A9, although AA is less likely because even a mouse would reraise pre-flop on AA. A mouse probably wouldn't have called your pre-flop raise on A3 or 93. Regardless, you are dead. Fold the hand. If Manny calls at the flop, you may have the better hand, but he has something, so play it cautiously nonetheless.

(3)(b) Ed the Elephant reraises. Ed would have called pre-flop with AA, 99, 33, A9, A3s, or perhaps even 93s (after all, he'll call on almost anything). And when an Elephant raises, something had to kick him out of that call-call-call rut ... like a set or top two pair. You are most likely behind, although if you call Ed's reraise, he will most likely go back to his rut and check behind you to the river if you want to chase another A or K. If Ed calls at the flop, you can still play the hand aggressively, because Ed always calls!

(3)(c) Jerry the Jackal reraises. Jerry would have reraised pre-flop on AA, and probably on 99 or 33 also, so he's less likely to have a set. He would probably have reraised pre-flop on A9 so he probably doesn't have top two pair. He may have A3 or 93s (yes, he'd have called with those), but he'd also reraise if he had anything at all ... like A8, K9, and the like. Despite Jerry's reraise, you may well still be ahead in the hand, so at least call. If Jerry only calls at the flop, you KNOW you have him beaten (he'd raise if he had anything), so you can play aggressively with confidence.

(3)(d) Linda the Lion reraises. Linda probably wouldn't have called the pre-flop raise with A9 or A3, and certainly not with 93, so she probably doesn't have two pair. She would have called with 99 or 33, and she's the type who's sneaky enough to call with AA on a slow-play. So she may have a set, perhaps even top set. On the other hand, she may be bluffing, especially if she's played extra tight lately and set herself up as a mouse. At most you'd call. If Linda calls at the flop, well, you're still uncertain. She might be calling with a weaker Ace (like AQ or AJ), but she might also be slow-playing a set. Tread lightly.

(4) So now you have some idea of what hands this player is likely to have called your pre-flop raise with, and what the raise might mean. Now you decide how confident you feel in your read, and how it's worth to find out ... and call, reraise, or fold, accordingly.

Cris

[bushky]

cris,

That was a very cool explanation, thank you very much!

[CrisBrown]

Hi bushky,

You're welcome, and thank you! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Cris