Can I call?

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

2 table SNG on 'Stars. I'm UTG and have 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Level is 25/50. Stack range from 750 - 3000 at this table, I have 1520..

I limp. MP, C/O and button limp, SB completes, BB checks. 6 see the flop, 300 in the pot.

Flop. 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif A /images/graemlins/spade.gif A /images/graemlins/heart.gif

blinds check, I bet 300, folded to the BB who thinks a bit and checkraises me all-in.

I ask for time and start thinking. I do not put him on an A. I'd expect him to just call here. I eliminate KK and QQ because of no preflop raise, and I discount JJ because I think it's 50-50 he'd raise it, and more than half the time he doesn't raise it preflop, he probably bets out at this flop (I don't know this player, I'm just making an assumption). That leaves 22-TT, plus x% of the time he'd bluff with no pair assuming *I* don't have an A.

I can't put a number on how often he'll bluff here and settle on 77-TT as his possible holding, meaning I'm ahead 2/3 of the time plus or minus my possibility of my analysis being wrong and the possibility it's a no-pair bluff. If he's got an A or 22, that's life and I can make my buy-in back at 3/6 on party.

I have him covered by 150. I call.

Comments? Results later.

[bushky]

Kurn,

I fold, but then I play it differently from the flop also. With 6 people in, what are the chances that one of them don't have an Ace? You don't, the board has two, so you are somewhat safer, but my experience has been that lots of players will stay with any Ace as long as they can limp. If there had been a sizeable raise pre flop, I think you might be safer.

But the reason I fold is that you are guessing. And it seems that the one who guesses, usually loses. Perhaps he really is bluffing, but so what? You are either right, or out (so low on chips it would be hard to cash, right?). And how many times would you be willing to take this bet? (with the exact same circumstances?)

I feel that perhaps you were mad at betting so much and having the feeling that you were getting bluffed off the pot got you to thinking.

What about this strategy? Why not represent the aces yourself? If someone had an ace,like your example perhaps, they will call your 300 bet and perhaps raise you All in right? And you are considering calling this bet anyway right? So logically, would not an All in raise from you, instead of a 300 feeler bet get the same result? (I realize you have 2 still left to act after you if you do it this way). At least with an All in bet, the weak ace might actually fold!

I check this flop. With 99 this flop has pretty much killed, unless you turn the third nine. And even then, you might still lose to Aces full. You had a decent look at a flop, not much invested, so let it go.

busky

[Greg (FossilMan)]

If you know the guy well enough to trust your analysis, it's an automatic call.

However, unless you know him pretty well, I don't think you can rule out Ax so easily.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Good points. I probably fold here 90% of the time if the bet comes from anywhere but the last person to act.

I feel that perhaps you were mad at betting so much and having the feeling that you were getting bluffed off the pot got you to thinking.

Not really. The 300 is an easy bet to get away from at this early stage. Maybe I wasn't clear in my original post. I don't really think he's bluffing. I believe he *does* have a pair. The question in my mind is "how big?"

lots of players will stay with any Ace as long as they can limp.

Again, look at the board. That 2 is huge, because it brings kickers into play. Any A is likely to call to see how much I like the turn.

Why not represent the aces yourself?

That's what my bet does.

So logically, would not an All in raise from you, instead of a 300 feeler bet get the same result?

Not really. I'm out of position. If a bet comes from late position, I have up to 5 players left to act after my all-in raise. If I check here, I check-fold (not that that's a bad choice). It's early, and I want to establish an aggressive posture if I can. Plus my bet is the size of the pot. That's not a "feeler."

My opponent is in a much better position to make this play. Calling is just as tough a decision if I have, say, A4s.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I don't think you can rule out Ax so easily.

As I was replying to the other poster, I realized that with the 2 on the board, AT or AJ might make this play. I did not consider that at the time, only that A (weak kicker) might not be so aggressive.

[bushky]

Kurn,

thanks for explaining your logic. It makes a lot more sense to me now. And I also know you are the better player than me, so I will think about these hands more in the future.

One last point though, if you don't mind. I have read that most check raises are legitimate. And it would seem to me to be a really good play on the BB's part in this situation. He gets a chance to collect from all the players willing to make a small investment to see the turn card. Luckily for him you bet from UTG. Unluckily for him, the rest folded. So, rather than give you a chance to draw out on him, (if he indeed has the Ace, but not both /images/graemlins/tongue.gif) after all, no matter how good his kicker, you might hit yours, and him not?

anyway, i really like how you thought through the hand, I am just still too weak a player to call this bet.

PS. I realize you probably would not have raised All in on the flop, I was just trying to get your reasoning as to callling an All in re raise, and thanks for doing it so nicely!

bushky

[Chicago Kid]

I don't think you can call here. A preflop check should eliminate things like AK AQ, AA, KK and QQ.

But, as you say, he could very likely be betting a middle pocket pair. While you don't have him read as having A-x, there's enough "scare" in this to make me lay down to a c/r all-in bet. Furthermore, things like KQ, KJ and other things in the "hold zone" could still come up and bite you.

Even though an all-in bet screams overbet, if you're wrong, you're crippled.

I'd muck. It's early, and I'd prefer to wait for a better opportunity.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I have read that most check raises are legitimate.

I agree. An all-in checkraise on the flop with a scary board is often a flopped set. However, here I have to put him on exactly 22 to believe that. He more likely is reading me for a stab at the pot and taking the chance that a) he's right and I have no pair or a smaller pair than his, or b) that I can lay down a weak A.

I'd only seen his play for a short period of time, but had the impression (tough online, I know), that he was a decent player.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I call, he flips over J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif and I'm crippled. I managed to fight my way back from 140 to 920, but went out in the 5th level.

I posted this because I was wondering if my discounting of JJ was wishful thinking that tainted my decision making process. If I decide that it's 50-50 that he holds a better pair, it's less likely I call.

[Bozeman]

I think one possible error of your analysis is that he would be more likely to make this move with the higher pairs. Since there are 3 that beat you and only 5 that you beat, I think this becomes a toss-up, even if you can precisely eliminate A's.

Craig

[CrisBrown]

Hi Kurnson,

I'd muck here. With the pre-flop action, there are eight reasonable Ax hands (AJ down to A2) and three reasonable pocket pairs (JJ, TT, 22) that the BB might only check on, and which now beat you. There are only six reasonable hands (88-33) that don't. The combined probabilities of the eleven hands that beat you FAR exceeds those of the six that don't. So ... fold.

Cris