Reraising QQ amounts..

[1800GAMBLER]

0.5x/x stakes, 100x stacks.

Unknown player raises 10x preflop from LP. You're on the button, how much do you reraise with QQ and why?

[1800GAMBLER]

Assume there were limpers before the LP player. So (s)he isn't open raising.

[CrisBrown]

Hi Jay,

I don't know if I'd reraise here. With the limpers, he's probably not bluffing, which means he probably has a good hand. I'd put him on AA, KK, JJ, TT, AK, or maybe AQs. I'm all but dead to two of those, dominating three others, and a coin-flip to the fifth. I think I might just take a flop here and see what develops after.

Cris

[rockoon]

[ QUOTE ]
0.5x/x stakes, 100x stacks.

Unknown player raises 10x preflop from LP. You're on the button, how much do you reraise with QQ and why?

[/ QUOTE ]

There isnt enough information here. The biggest piece of missing information is how many players there are at the table! This is important because if you want to derive a strategy that prevents a player from running over the table with such big raises you need to know what you are giving up by folding. Obviously if it was 4 handed you would be more liberal in this situation but if it was 10 handed you would be more conservative. Infact 10 handed I recommend you muck your QQ until you know something about the player.

[rockoon]

I would like to add that if you assume the player is playing anything close to correctly (hes unknown after all) then you should throw away approximately the worst 50% of the hands you believe he could correctly raise like that.

But specifically if you think he could raise AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK and AQs, you could only play for a profit if you held AA, KK, or QQ. QQ being the worst of the hands probably shouldnt be reraised because if he plays correctly back at you he will only call when you are seriously beat.

[turnipmonster]

So, in most of my games, 100x is a pretty short stack, since to see a hand through (i.e. just call pot sized bets) with a 10x raise preflop we are going to be putting in 10+20+40+80 > our whole stack.

So for me, the only reason to reraise here is to get away from the hand cheap, i.e. if I reraise 20x and my opponent stacks off, I am going to fold. but I don't want to fold, I have the button and I have QQ.

Say we call here, and use the money we saved by not reraising preflop to raise on the flop no matter what the hell falls (we have the button!).

So say the flop comes down A K 7, and our opponent bets, and we raise, and he does anything other than fold. We're beat such a large percentage of the time I can feel great about this fold all day, and I didn't cost much more money than if I had raised preflop. plus, maybe he slows down and checks through.

for me, the basic theme of this hand is:
1) I want to see the flop
2) I want to punish my out of position opponent by having to act first on every street (i.e. I don't want to give him the chance to stack off)

In short, in this spot I want to play QQ like the most premium middle pair ever, instead of a big pair that I am going to back with my stack preflop. I may want to back QQ with my stack here, but I need more convincing before doing it.

whaddya think?

--turnipmonster

[Guy McSucker]

with a 10x raise preflop we are going to be putting in 10+20+40+80 > our whole stack.

Just a nitpick: with pot sized bets we're looking at investing 10 + 20 + 60 + 180, i.e. nearly three times the stack here. (Actually, with 1.5 in blinds, it's 10 + 21.5 + 64.5 + 193.5, wow those blinds make a difference by the river, don't they?)

I think I agree with your analysis.
Guy.

[Jon Matthews]

20x should isolate him I think and a reraise all in (70x) is enough that you might be able to put him on aces (player dependant) and act accordingly. Any less will get an autocall and any more could get you too far in to let go...


Jon

[hazeelnut]

"With the limpers, he's probably not bluffing, which means he probably has a good hand. "

I would say that the limpers make it more likely he doesnt have a good hand. Its unusual people open with a 10x BB raise just to steal the blinds. But with lots of limpers in the pot people could easily try to steal all that money with mediocre hands. Hence be more inclined to call/reraise QQ with limpers, and to fold without limpers.

hazeel

[rockoon]

[ QUOTE ]
"With the limpers, he's probably not bluffing, which means he probably has a good hand. "

I would say that the limpers make it more likely he doesnt have a good hand. Its unusual people open with a 10x BB raise just to steal the blinds. But with lots of limpers in the pot people could easily try to steal all that money with mediocre hands. Hence be more inclined to call/reraise QQ with limpers, and to fold without limpers.

hazeel

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldnt say that the limpers have an impact on if he has a good hand or not because its 'an unknown player'. For all you know this particular player only plays pocket aces. If this was the case, the limpers wouldnt mean anything at all.

I'm not saying you should assume he has pocket aces. On the contrary I think against an unknown player who makes such a big raise you must turn to a defensive strategy that avoids giving up too much. In a 10 handed game you really arent giving up much, however, by mucking pocket queens here. The hand isnt a big winner under the circumstances.

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Jay,

I don't know if I'd reraise here. With the limpers, he's probably not bluffing, which means he probably has a good hand. I'd put him on AA, KK, JJ, TT, AK, or maybe AQs. I'm all but dead to two of those, dominating three others, and a coin-flip to the fifth. I think I might just take a flop here and see what develops after.

Cris

[/ QUOTE ]

AA KK: 12

JJ TT: 12

AK: 16
AQ: 8

AK has to hit the flop, else it's going to get -EV call on the flop if it wants to play, so only 1/3 of the time against AK you'll be behind.

so it's:

20 + (16 * .2/3): 12 + (16 * 1/3)

23:13; 1.8:1


Even if it was 50:50 coin flip i'd reraise here:
1. Take control of the pot.
2. Most inportantly for information, AA KK should reraise then i can be done with my hand.

It has the disadvantage of giving JJ TT information, but QQ vs JJ/TT will have less postflop action as compared to QQ vs AA, due to probability of overpairs.

If i don't reraise and we (likely) both flop overpairs i'm in serious trouble then. If the player has me beat i want to know now.

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
So for me, the only reason to reraise here is to get away from the hand cheap, i.e. if I reraise 20x and my opponent stacks off, I am going to fold. but I don't want to fold, I have the button and I have QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against most player's raising standards you are almost 2:1 favourite of having the best hand here. I'm happy to raise to put money in the pot when i know i am most likely leading. Plus the huge advantage here of raising for information.

[ QUOTE ]
Say we call here, and use the money we saved by not reraising preflop to raise on the flop no matter what the hell falls (we have the button!).

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems like you are putting money in at the wrong times. Preflop you were 2:1 favourite of leading, now you have given chances to other hands which you were leading against to catch up.

AK: will only give you action, (other than flop bluff) when it hits.
AQ: Same. (apart from the long shot of the queen flops AND the king doesn't)
AA: Will give you action all the way, you could have been away from it preflop.
KK: Same.
JJ: When it flops an overpair (50/50) or flops a set.
TT: Same but less chance of an overpair.

I can see the only merit to calling here is the JJ floping an overpair and you getting it's whole stack.

The draw backs are if you flop an overpair (more likely) you'll lose your stack to AA KK.

And you missed out on action from hands you were leading against preflop.

Calling would be good against a true tight-aggressive capable of folding AK to a reraise, and capable of pot bet bluffing the flop. On his flop bluff though i wont know if he has AK or AA KK untill after i reraise either.

[1800GAMBLER]

This is the reason i posted this question. I've been fearing monsters lately with QQ due to the abnormal amount of times i've been running into AA KK.

I was wondering the amount that the player with KK fears and doesn't reraise me back, which is the point it becomes awful.

The raise still has it's drawbacks but they are rare:

You run into a tricky player capable of smoothcall AA.
You run into Bob Ciaffone who doesn't reraise KK here.

[turnipmonster]

[ QUOTE ]

Against most player's raising standards you are almost 2:1 favourite of having the best hand here.


[/ QUOTE ]

so clearly, we play in very different games. in my games, if someone raises 10x the blinds, we are not going to be a 2:1 favorite with QQ. I would have a hard time putting someone on less than TT/AQs with that kind of raise preflop.


[ QUOTE ]


AK: will only give you action, (other than flop bluff) when it hits.



[/ QUOTE ]

my original play was pretty much to induce this bluff. chances are higher they have AK than AA-KK, so if we call and then raise the flop, we're getting better information for the same price as a preflop reraise.

keep in mind that I am saying the same thing about raising the flop as you are saying about raising preflop, if the board is scary and they do anything other than fold, I am done with the hand. In my point of view, it's not that much harder to get away from AA-KK on the flop than it is preflop.

[ QUOTE ]

AA: Will give you action all the way, you could have been away from it preflop.


KK: Same.
JJ: When it flops an overpair (50/50) or flops a set.
TT: Same but less chance of an overpair.


[/ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]

Calling would be good against a true tight-aggressive capable of folding AK to a reraise, and capable of pot bet bluffing the flop. On his flop bluff though i wont know if he has AK or AA KK untill after i reraise either.

[/ QUOTE ]

right, that's the idea. same play as the preflop play, but my point is I am more confident about the laydown on the flop.

--turnipmonster

[turnipmonster]

[ QUOTE ]
You run into Bob Ciaffone who doesn't reraise KK here.

[/ QUOTE ]

or, you run into anyone who has read ciaffone's book (none of *us* have, right /images/graemlins/smile.gif ), where he says to smooth call with KK.

--turnipmonster

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
so clearly, we play in very different games. in my games, if someone raises 10x the blinds, we are not going to be a 2:1 favorite with QQ. I would have a hard time putting someone on less than TT/AQs with that kind of raise preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

See my math above, they are the only hands i included to get the 2:1 figure.

[ QUOTE ]
my original play was pretty much to induce this bluff

[/ QUOTE ]

Inducing this bluff is for extra value on the hand, but you can make this extra value by reraising preflop, without giving the player the chance to catch up. He may still bluff the flop, even though it's less likely.

[ QUOTE ]
chances are higher they have AK than AA-KK

[/ QUOTE ]

4:3 that they have AK:AA+KK, it's not huge. If more money goes in when they have AA KK as compared to AK our EV becomes equal.

[ QUOTE ]
so if we call and then raise the flop, we're getting better information for the same price as a preflop reraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree we are getting better information. By calling the bettor can put us on a large range of hands and thus will play his hand accordingly. If we state our hand to him he'll play accordingly again, but it gives us a smaller range of hands he could have.

[ QUOTE ]
or, you run into anyone who has read ciaffone's book (none of *us* have, right ), where he says to smooth call with KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an unknown player, i'd say the top 5 percentile of players could smoothcall with AA KK.

In most of the NL games we are going to play it's a mistake to smoothcall with KK. Bob Ciaffone's games contain players who here will fold AK QQ, i don't think many games contain many of these players.

[turnipmonster]

[ QUOTE ]

See my math above, they are the only hands i included to get the 2:1 figure.


[/ QUOTE ]

your math is fine, but we're really only a big favorite to AQ, and pretty much even money on the rest AA-TT+AK.


[ QUOTE ]

I don't agree we are getting better information. By calling the bettor can put us on a large range of hands and thus will play his hand accordingly.


[/ QUOTE ]

I probably should have said giving less information. His raise tells me a lot about his hand, whereas my call tells him nothing about mine, especially if I am (and you are) a tricky player. If I reraise, I'm not giving my opponent an oppurtunity to make much of a mistake.

but I think we're picking nits here. I think reraising and folding to an allin preflop is a fine play, and I would do it if I was out of position. but for me, I want to see the flop and I'm not going to let my opponent stack off before that. obviously you don't like it, but I doubt either one has a significant difference in EV.

--turnipmonster

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
and pretty much even money on the rest AA-TT+AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

woah, woah, woah. How are we even money with TT JJ AK?

edit: I can see what you mean here, in that range of AA KK JJ TT we are even money. But this is why we should reraise. If we put more money in when we are against JJ TT than we put in when against AA KK then we gain EV. This is why reraising preflop is so important in my opinion as we, if need be, can get away from the hand cheaply.

Example 1. Simple KK AA: raise, we reraise, he goes all in/reraises we fold.

Example 2. Simple JJ TT: Raise, we reraise, he calls. Everything postflop is our gained EV.

Example 3. Tricky AA KK: raise, we reraise, he calls. Everything postflop is his profit.

Tricky AA KK i think puts us in the same position as a call.

The EV also comes from basic players here, if there were more than 50% of tricky players (nowhere near) than our reraise for information would just be bad.



Otherwise, i think a reraise preflop is more EV, not because i'm just disagreeing; but we are more experienced players than the average player and we use the information we have gained better than they will use it.

If we reraise and the player with JJ TT flops an overpair he isn't going to get away from his hand preflop or on the flop, as we are more likely to get away from it on either street.

If we reraise and he comes back at this point we can safely fold. Say the the other player had QQ he wouldn't get away.

So if we give and take the same amount of information it benefits the better player hugely more.

[rockoon]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
and pretty much even money on the rest AA-TT+AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Example 1. Simple KK AA: raise, we reraise, he goes all in/reraises we fold.

Example 2. Simple JJ TT: Raise, we reraise, he calls. Everything postflop is our gained EV.

Example 3. Tricky AA KK: raise, we reraise, he calls. Everything postflop is his profit.


[/ QUOTE ]

Didnt you forget a few cases? Such as you reraise and he
likes his AKo so much he moves all-in and you fold?

Keep saying to yourself 'This is an UNKNOWN PLAYER' - repeat it 3 times.

[1800GAMBLER]

Unknown players fall into percentages of existing players.

[fireman664]

I agree with you 100%. I want to see this flop. I'd rather raise the flop when no overcards hit, or I make a set. Am I wrong with smooth calling. I would just feel more comfortable backing this hand with my stack after the flop. Some of my best pots have been all in after the flop verses AK, or when the set hits. I know poker can teach you to play incorrectly though, but those are my thoughts. I am not as concerned with isolating him, since I am only going to see the hand through if my QQ hits, or the flop is under it.

[rockoon]

[ QUOTE ]
Unknown players fall into percentages of existing players.

[/ QUOTE ]

Existing players, not good players!