Jackpots odds question, matheskematicians needed

I am trying to help the owner of a particular cardroom decide on his jackpot policy and I need to know the odds of hitting the following jackpots…


Hold'em:


Aces full of tens or better beaten or by quads or better


Lowball:


6-4 beaten by a wheel. Deck has a bug and the bug cannot be in either player's hand.


O-8:


quad nines beaten.


The problem we are trying to tackle is that all the jackpot money is currently coming from the same pool, and I think it is MUCH easier to hit the lowball jackpot than hold'em or O-8 jackpot. As usual, both player's hole cards must play in hold'em.


Also, any suggestions on policies for table conduct, specifically for lowball, would be appreciated (It's pretty clear with O-8 and hold'em). The problem with lowball jackpots is that apparently kibitzing is common at lowball and usually acceptable, but with the addition of jackpots, this kibitzing could be easily abused. For instance, someone could say "draw to any six", or something like that. Lowball is not my game, and I am not sure of what is commonly acceptable or unacceptable at the table. The game is the crazy "collect the kills" 10-20 lowball game where you can kill it for up to 1/3 of your total stack. (I wouldn't touch this game with a ten foot pole).


I will relay all responses to the owner of the cardroom. If you don't want your name attached to your comments, let me know and I will make sure they are deleted before he sees them. He runs a good cardroom, but is not a 2+2 surfer.


Thanks


Dave in Cali

No actual math involved but some statistics accumulated.

In the 3+ years that I have been a floorman I have kept stats on the frequency of bad beats vs number of hands dealt and then averages it all out. Here is what I have come up with over those few years.


Hold'em - aces full of tens beaten by quads. approx. 1 in 33,500 hands.


Omaha 8 - quad Jacks beaten. approx. 1 in 31,500. (I would suggest quad nines might make it about 3,000 hands faster)


I spoke once to Mr. Hriscina who was with the Orleans in Las Vegas at the time and his stats were extremely similar to my own.


Barbara Yoon gave me a list of possible combinations once upon a time but to tell the truth, I didn't go through it all that well. (I would have had to physically count them) You might be interested in posting the question on "the other forum".


Good Luck


Larry