Exception to the FTOP missed by OK player

I was playing last night and I saw a hand that was clearly an example of the exceptions to the FTOP. I wasn't in the hand, but a fairly good player was. I would rate this player as fairly good in relation to the rest of the school of fish in the cardroom that night, but he's not really a "good" player. I suspect that he might even beat the game for a small amount, but not much. But he's certainly quite a bit tighter than a typical fish, especially pre-flop, and if he raises, I give him respect. [Actually, I will be posting another hand where I gave him respect and lost a big pot because of it, but I still made the right play]. He knows and uses standard plays like raising to get a free card, raising to drive people out, check-raising a big draw, etc, but I basically consider him pretty weak-tight. I'll call him WT. The game has been pretty aggressive for the most part. When one person raises the flop, it's not uncommon for it to get capped. Same pre-flop.


So in this hand, WT limps UTG and four more limp. The SB, who has been playing very loose, and raising frequently with such stupendous hands as 82s and J5o, puts in a raise. BB folds and all call, six players, 13 bets in the pot.


Flop is 9h 8h 4s. SB check, WT bets, all call to the button, who raises. SB cold calls and WT reraises, all call to the button, who caps, everyone calls. 37 SB / 18.5 BB in the pot. I am thinking to myself, I sure would like to have QhJh in this pot. Can you see why?


Turn is the definition of brick, the 2c. SB checks and WT bets, one drops, the rest call, including the SB.


River is the Tc. SB checks, WT bets, call, button raises, SB folds, WT makes an obviously crying call, and the original caller also calls. WT has pocket tens. The button has (well what do you know!) QhJh and made the straight on the river.


WT was PISSED. He didn't get obviously mad, but I could totally tell he was, and he mumbled under his breath something about loose idiots. But he certainly wasn't as far ahead as he thought he was, not by a long shot. The player with the best draw, with 12 probable clean outs, was getting the most equity in the pot, and he was sucking equity right out of WT's hand from all the loose players who were presumably drawing pretty thin. Unless someone had a better flush draw, the button's QJh was probably the money favorite once the flop came, that's why I said I would like to have that hand in this pot. WT certainly doesn't understand about the exceptions to the FTOP though, I doubt he has read TOP. He has probably read one or two books, but doesn't have a thorough understanding of the game, certainly not enough to see what was really going on here.


Dave in Cali

WT really ought not to be pissed - disappointed maybe but not pissed. In fact, the button had 16 outs given WT's holding. As well, the other guys in the pot presumably had several "different" outs as against WT. WT should expect to lose a fair number of times in this situation.


That said, I think he played the hand quite all right.

I agree. I only said that the button had 12 outs, because he couldn't be sure that his J or Q would hold up. However, it certainly was an added bonus. That said, WT's hand really WAS tenuous, and he was being pretty unrealistic by getting upset.

whats the acronym FTOP?

I don't see the relationship between your post and FTOP. Even if they saw each other's hands they should still cap the flop due to the loose players calling.

For someone prone to get upset, there's plenty in this hand. Draw don't always pump it up. And suckouts don't always include a rivered set by us that makes the other guy's hand AND makes us lose two river bets.


As to the exception to FTOP, I missed it too.


Tommy

The exception was that WT thought he was so far ahead, and totally deserved to win the pot, but missed the fact that the flush draw had the best of it by far in the hand, because he was sucking equity out of WT's hand from all the loose players in the pot (who were presumably drawing pretty thin, and may have even duplicated each other's outs). WT was mistaken about who really had the best of it in this hand, that was my only real point about the exception. As have I analyzed in other cases, it probably didn't matter that much to WT whether the flop got capped or not, but to the button, with the flush draw and gutshot, he does MUCH better by getting the money in the pot on the flop.

Not counting the other players, the 12-out draw LOSES the pot when he catches both turn and river bad which will happen 33/45squared = 54%. He also loses when he snags his 12 outer with one card while the set snags a full with the other (10 outs), or 2 times 12/45 times 10/44 or 12%. Thus top set wins 54%+12%=68% minus the slim chances of the hangers-on. Yes, whoever corrects my math will probably reduce it to about 65%.


The set is "the" favorite by 2:1 over the big-draw and isn't going to be worse than even money against the field. The big-draw is also "a" favorite so long as there is someone else calling; the more the better.


Your comment about the draw "sucking equity" from the set makes only a little sense since the other draws cannot beat the big draw when he makes it (except with a back-door flush), but CAN, I suppose beat the set with a small gut-shot. Never-the-less I think the set prefers the small gut-shot to call a capped flop rather than fold.


FTOP talks about what's good for me is bad for him. The only application here that I can see is that raising with the draw is GOOD for the draw AND the set, as is raising with the set. Both players should raise even if they see each other's hand since they make lots of money from the others.


- Louie

WT doesn't have a set until the river.


-CW

Oops, I guess that changes things. I thought he flopped a straight.